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Forex Blog - European Market Update: Risk aversion remains high as fiscal impact of prolong recession remains a concern

Today 05:55am EST/09:55am GMT

European Market Update: Risk aversion remains high as fiscal impact of prolong recession remains a concern

 

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (RU) Russian Jun Consumer Price M/M: 0.6% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 11.9% v 11.9%e; CPI YTD: 7.4% v 7.4%e

- (DE) Danish May Industrial Production (ex ships) M/M: -1.5 v -1.1% prior; Ind Orders (ex ships) : -0.9 v -11.9% prior

- (TT) Taiwan June CPI Y/Y: -2.0% v -1.5%e; CPI WPI Y/Y: -13.6% v -14.4%e

- UK) Jun new car registration Y/Y -15.7% v -24.8% prior - SMMT

- (EU) Euro-Zone July Sentix Investor Confidence: -31.3 v -25.0e

- (SA) South Africa SACCI June Business Confidence: 83.1 v 81.8 prior


*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

- In equities news overnight: European equity markets opened the week on a heavy tone following a mixed session out of Asia. Asian equities, in the absence of a
US session on Friday traded relatively mixed through 2:00EST. At this time, comments regarding the Indian state budget began to be released with the Fin Min putting the 2009/10 deficit at 6.8% of GDP v 5.5% prior target. These comments had instant and heavy effects on global equities with the Senesex30 dropping out of positive territory and trading as low as -4.40%. European equity futures traded lower and on the open at 3:00EST bourses were lead south by manufacturers and basic resource names on the back of Indian news. Bourses passed the -1.0% mark by 3:15EST with bottoming out not taking place until 4:00EST with the DAX the leading mover to the downside off over -1.8%. Equity weakness was broad and encompassing with heavy steel names, auto's and miners most directly affected by Indian demand concerns. With little economic data out of the EMEA region, markets maintained their heavy footing through the 4:00EST hr. Trading volumes have remained mixed with the DAX outperforming its average and the CAC and FTSE trading below averages. By 5:30EST, equity markets remained to the downside and looked towards the return of US trading to provide further direction.


-In individual equities: Rio Tinto [RIO.UK] Exec stated that Chinese demand for ore remains strong and that Chinese customers were paying spot prices for contracted ore (above Asian benchmark prices). Overnight
China's Iron and Steel Association (CISA) indicated it was still dissatisfied with 33% benchmark price cut for iron ore, but is no longer demanding 40-45% price cut. || ThyssenKrupp [TKA.GE] Reportedly pulls sale of industrial service unit after bidders walk away. Sale of unit had been part of €1B divestment operation. Bids had been expected from Hochtief and Bilfinger amongst others. || Cattles [CTT.UK] Will not make coupon payment on £400M on 1.125% 2017 bonds due today. Continues to be in constructive discussions with all of its finance providers and will provide a further update shortly. || SocGen [GLE.FR] SawQ2 Net in moderate positive territory compared to €736.7M consensus estimates. its exposure to CDS products at €1.3B. Expected to see Tier 1 cap levels in line with March readings. Continued to reduce exposure levels. Costs of risk through Q2 seen at same levels at Q1. Impact of risk on operations in Q2 should be seen as limited. || CNP Assurances [CNP.FR] CEO: Group had 'very good' Q2, positive net new money inflow in quarter. Declined to give specific figures. || France Telecom [FTE.FR] Orascom Telecom Holding has reportedly dropped its legal action against firm. Case involved Egyptian mobile operating unit. Back on May 27 FTE Confirmed that group has dropped bid Egyptian ECMS. || Air Liquide [AI.FR] CEO: Group will continue investment plans despite macro environment -Journal de Finances . || Lafarge [LG.FR] CEO: Outlook still presents uncertainty; Not ruling out acquisitions. || Veolia Environment [VIE.FR] Confirmed signing deal to sell Montenay International to Covanta Holding for €450M. || Rheinmetall [RHM.GE] Awarded 50% of €3.1B deal with German Govt for 405 Puma armored vehicles. || Morphosys [MOR.GE] Secured full allotment for 10-year term alliance with Novartis. To receive committed payments of approx $600M over course of JV. ||


- Speakers: Indian Finance Minister commented that it sought to sustain 9% GDP growth over the medium term and to continue efforts to provide fiscal stimulus in his budget speech. He forecasted the 2010 Budget Deficit at 6.8% of GDP compared to the original target of 5.5%. He also forecasted 2009/10 Gross market borrowing at INR4.51 trillion versus its original view of INR3.95 trillion. ||| World Bank President commented that he was concerned that protectionist trends could 'easily' spin out of control. ||| ECB's Nowotny reiterated that the ECB has helped stabilize the banking system and added that cannot be any economic stability in the absence of financial stability ||| BoJ's Hayakawa commented that Japanese businesses were not confident on demand pick up || IMF's chief Strauss Kahn stated that he saw the possibility that trade levels could rebound quickly and such a rebound would likely begin in the US || German Banking Association reiterated that their was no 'credit crunch' in Germany . However, it did note that credit risks would increase by fall . || Austrian Central Bank commented that its six banks could all survive a drastic recession. Stess tests speculated a non-performing loan book of 10% for Austrian lending, 20% for Central Eastern Europe (CEE) || Reportedly Poland sees 2009 gross borrowings around PLN 163B; net borrowing at PLN 48.5B



- In Currencies: Risk aversion initially set off from last Thursday US payroll data continued to roil the currency markets. The USD and JPY benefited from the concerns of the sustainability of any global economic recovery. The EUR/USD probed towards the 1.39 handle as the NY morning approached. USD/JPY at 95.30 while the EUR/JPY cross was off 130 pips at 132.50 area. Commodities are lower with the strong dollar against the European pairs.

- The rising doubt on the global growth front has brought the fiscal health of countries and regions back into question. The Indian finance minister noted that its goal sustainable 9% GDP growth over the medium term would require continuing efforts to provide fiscal stimulus. Thus
India now saw 2009/10 gross market borrowing at INR4.51T v INR3.95T prior estimate.

The GBP/USD broke below the 1.62 level as the growing potential for more quantitative easing (QE) from the BoE continues to simmer.

- The Financial Times discussed that Euro-Zone exporters were squeezed by the euro currency strength. The article noted that strength of the euro was forcing European companies to step up cost-cutting to compete with rivals from the US and elsewhere amid fears that it could slow their recovery when demand picks up

- Goldman Sachs analyst commented that the latest COFER data from IMF showed no sign of FX reserve diversification. The FX reserves of Emerging Market countries remain largely invested in USD ((seen around 60%) with EUR reserves account for about 30% and the rest in other currencies. The report noted that the only slight hint of diversification is the increase of "other" currencies to 2.1% of the total, the highest number seen so far for this category and potentially linked to commodity linked currencies like the CAD or AUD. Reserve managers stayed remarkably close to benchmark allocations but added that the COFER Q2 release in 3 months would be more interesting as it would cover the recent period of BRIC reserve currency talk

- The reserve currency issue will continue to impact the price action of the dollar ahead of this week's G8 summit in Italy, but the risk aversion overriding its impact at this time.


- In Energy/Commodities: Nigerian militants have attacked and destroyed a Chevron facility in Niger Delta region another round of attacks on Shell oil facility Sunday . The militant group aggravated about last week's $10B investment decision to build a intercontinental trans-saharan gas pipeline to
Europe. The deal was signed last Friday between Algeria, Nigeria, and Niger and will be about 3,500KM in length when fully constructed. || OPEC President Vasconcelos commented that the current global forward stock levels at 62-63 days was too high and added that 52-53 days needed to stabilize market || Rio Tinto [RIO.UK] company executive commented that Chinese demand for ore remained strong. Chinese customers were paying spot prices for contracted ore (above Asian benchmark prices) || Bombay Bullion chief commented that India's gold and silver demand would decline further after tax increases in budget


- In Fixed Income Supply: Despite the risk averse sentiment amongst investors, Treasuries have underperformed on a cross markets basis in Europe as a supply heavy week gets underway. The yield on the 10-year Note has moved above 3.50% in the overnight session, with the yield on the long Bond firmly back above the 4.30% level . Gilts and Bunds have performed strongly across the curve, with a case of bull flattening in the
UK, whilst German yield curve has steepened as equity indices slump. Three month Euribor fixed a fresh record low of 1.048%.


- Geo-political: Russian and US officials reportedly have agreed to draft outlines for nuclear arsenal cuts ||Chinese press reports several hundred people arrested over riots in
China's capital of western Xinjiang region. State media stated that violence in China''s Xinjiang saw over 100 killed and over 800 injured. Xinjiang regional government stated that 'initial investigations' showed that the 'ethnic separatist group' World Uyghur Congress behind the unrest



*** NOTES ***

- ECB's Stark: Governments must enforce deficits in 2011

-ECB's Trichet: States G8 Must be enlarged to encompass G20 members; U.S. "Must support" a strong Dollar

- Vice President Biden: The Obama administration "misread how bad the economy

- The reserve currency issue will continue to impact the price action of the dollar ahead of this week's G8 summit in Italy.



***Looking Ahead***

- 6:45 (FR) French President Sarkozy and UK PM Brown hold joint press conference

- 10:00 (US) June ISM Non-Manufacturing Composite: 46.0e v 44.0 prior

-tbd (UK) Halifax House Prices M/M: 0.3%e v 2.6% prior, 3M/Y: -14.4%e v -16.3% prior

- 10:00 (US) President Obama and Russian President Medvedev hold press conference in Moscow

- 11:00 (EU) Euro-zone Finance Ministers meet in Brussels

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

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12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
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08:30 GB- Retail Sales
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Fri 20 Oct
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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
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