Monday July 6, 2009 - 12:39:12 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day : 06-Jul-2009 - 1237 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.0935/38...Ranged, sell rally
R: 1.0993-1008-1019 / 1.1065
S: 1.0917-0897 / 1.0855 / 1.0805-0795
There is significant Range Resistance + Moving Average Resistance in the 1.0990-1025 region, as mentioned in the morning. Assuming this to hold, there should be good chances of a fall towards 1.0750 over the coming days. A rise past 1.1065 (projected Max High on the 3-day chart) would suggest that the "Range Trade" idea might be wrong.
Limit Sell Order:
Sell USD 20K at 1.0980.
SL 1.1070 for USD 10K, TP 1.0860
SL 1.1090 for USD 10K, TP 1.0770
GBP-USD @ 1.6152/55...Bearish, may be sold on rally
R: 1.6180 / 1.6250-70 / 1.6305-15
S: 1.6082 / 1.6037
The Pound has seen a sharp fall today after having broken below the 200-MA on the 4-hour chart at 1.6294. The fall had started after the Pound closed below the 21-day MA (1.6382) on Friday. By all conventional chart reading, the Pound is now in Bear territory. The chances of a rise to 1.65 are very low now. Instead, the chances of a further fall towards 1.60 and 1.58 have increased.
On the downside, there is some Support at 1.6082, the projected Max Low for the Day. If and while this holds, we might see a small rally towards 1.6180-6205, before the fall resumes. In case of a rise past 1.6180, however, today's fall to 1.6100 may turn out to be a false break of the 1.6180-6610 range and might lead to a further rise towards 1.6280-6320 tomorrow.
AUDUSD @ 0.7899/7902...Resistance at 0.7925
R: 0.7924/ 0.7989/ 0.8038
S: 0.7835/ 0.7804/ 0.7751
Aussie has fallen below trendline Support on the 4 hr chart (joining lows at 0.7789 on 23-June and at 0.7902 on 02-Jul) and may now fall further towards 0.7835 horizontal line Support. If this support breaks, this pair may see a fall towards 0.7804 (Projected Max low for the day). Else, the pair may bounce back towards 200-MA Resistance on the 4-hr chart at 0.7989 after breaking the trendline Support turned Resistance (joining lows at 0.7789 on 23-Jun and at 0.7902 on 02-Jul).
Limit Sell Order:
Sell AUD 10K at 0.7920, SL 1.7955, TP 0.7860
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