Friday May 21, 2004 - 02:38:32 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
USDCHF View for May 21st 2004Price: 1.2840
Resistance: 1.2870 ... 1.2895 ... 1.2915 ... 1.2935
Support....: 1.2830 ... 1.2805 ... 1.2780 ... 1.2750
Mixed - waiting for breaks
The rally to 1.2915 was unexpected and really stretches the limit of the bearish wave count we had been following. Thus the risk will turn higher while support at 1.2805-30 holds and we see a break back above 1.2870 first which we feel will generate follow-through to 1.2935. Care as this could form a temporary cap. Break here would trigger direct gains to the 1.3085-90 corrective peaks.
The rally to 1.2915 threatens the downside view. However, technically it has not reversed but before we can get bearish again we would want to see a break below 1.2805 and more importantly below the 1.2750 corrective low. If seen it would wuickly generate losses down to 1.2600.
Elliott Wave Comment:
Failure for price to break lower yesterday is concerning and is beginning to make the decline from 1.3226 to 1.2698 like a three-wave move. This cuases us to review the entire rally from 1.2140 and on confirmation we shall post the revised count early next week. The new count will be valid on a break above the 1.3085 peak although resistance at 1.2935 is also important. Should these breaks be seen the minimum target is 1.3370.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2004
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