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Forex Blog - European Market Update: Upcoming G8 summit provides soapbox on USD views; UK production data falls more than expected while German factory orders exceed expectations

Today 06:04am EST/10:04am GMT

European Market Update: Upcoming G8 summit provides soapbox on USD views; UK production data falls more than expected while German factory orders exceed expectations

 

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (SA) South African June Gross Reserves: $35.8B v $36.2Be; Net Reserves: $34.6B v $34.4Be

- (FR) French May Trade Balance: -€2.7B v -€4.0Be

- (CZ) Czech May Trade Balance (CZK): 11.7B v 11.5Be

- (HU) Hungarian May Prelim Industrial Output M/M: +2.6% v -5.1% prior, Y/Y: -22.1% v -23.6%e

- (SW) Swedish Jun Budget Balance (SEK) : -102.7B v 16.7B prior

- (TA) Taiwan Jun Total Trade Balance: $16.95B v $2.9Be

- (NO) Norwegian May Industrial Production M/M: -3.1% v -1.6% prior, Y/Y: -7.8% v -4.0% prior

- (NO) Norwegian May Industrial Production Manufacturing M/M: -0.7% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -9.8% v -7.8%e

- (UK) May Industrial Production M/M: -0.6% v 0.2%e; Y/Y:-11.9% v -11.3%e

- (UK) May Manufacturing Production M/M: -0.5% v 0.2%e; Y/Y:-12.7% v -11.8%e

- (GE) German May Factory Orders M/M: 4.4% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: -21.8% v -31.2%e


*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

- In equities news overnight:: Equity markets in Europe opened to a positive footing following mixed Asian and NY trading sessions. Initial trades to the upside were dominated by mineral, export and manufacturing names that had seen the largest losses in previous sessions. Continued USD strength, however, rapidly abated this move and equities slid into negative territory. Risk aversion outweighed moderately positive
UK earnings, RBA comments regarding Chinese recovery, Rio Tinto comments regarding iron ore demand and EU speculation regarding accounting rule changes for banking balance sheets. These trends being ignored, saw stronger USD and JPY plays with weaker equity inclination. This trend continued into 4:00EST when markets trended out of negative territory ahead of UK economic data and a pairing of USD gains. UK data at 4:30EST temporarily stymied the equity recovery but a sharp rise in energy futures, specifically oil at 4:40EST rallied commodity, mining and energy complex names pushing markets to session highs just past 5:00EST. These best levels were soon paired but equities held a positive footing into the 5:00EST hour. The choppiness of equity markets has been exacerbated by continued low trading volumes on all three main European bourses. In this environment, moves in either direction have exaggerated.

-In individual equities: BMW [BMW.GE] Reports June Group sales 127.5K units (-12.7% y/y), Reports BMW Brand June sales 105.2K units (-13.4% y/y), Reports Mini brand June sales 22.3K units (-8.9% y/y). ||ArcelorMittal [MT.NV] Plans to restart facility in
Ghent, Belgium. || ThyssenKrupp [TKA.GE] Company remains on track to sell industrial services unit. || Tata Steel [TATA.IN] Reports June Steel Sales 497K tons v 419K tons y/y. June hot metal output 578K tons v 499K tons y/y. June Crude steel output 514K tons v 425K tons y/y. || Rheinmetall [RHM.GE] Successfully placed capital increase for proceeds of €104M at €29/shr. Reminder: On July 6 - Will seek to place 3.6M shares through capital raise (10% of current shares outstanding). Continues to see export opportunities for the Puma series tank . Expects positive EBIT results in 2009. Share sale and capital raise will be used to pay down debts and expand defense business. || CRH [CRH.IR]: Provides trading statement: Global recessionary environment led to weaker than expected trading in May and June. Expects H1 EBITDA to be -40% y/y (€1.1B in 2008) implies €660m v €791Me. Expects H1 Op profits to be -33% y/y (€700M in 2008) implies €469M v €338.5Me. Expects H1 Pretax to be approx €75M v €245Me. Europe Products has been impacted by the very difficult trading conditions with underlying sales for the period. Approximately 20% behind the relatively strong levels reported for the corresponding period in 2008. Americas Products recorded a fall of over 20% in like-for-like US$ sales due to further declines in US residential construction, combined with a rapid slowdown in non-residential markets. States: H2 profitability will be lower than in 2008, the rate of decline is expected to improve compared with the first half. Meanwhile the Group continues to focus resolutely on commercial delivery and on the implementation of further cost reduction and cash generating measures. || Micheal Page International [MPI.UK] Reports Q2 Gross Profit £83.8M v £152.4M y/y. Group headcount decreased by 10.4% in Q2 to 3,705 at 30 June 2009, -33.1% y/y. || Cobham [COB.UK] Wins US Army personal cooling system deal worth up to $110M. Cobham's initial task order is valued at approximately US$6.5M, with expected revenue of up to $110M during the next five years. || Persimmon [PSN.UK] Provides trading statement: Reports H1 Rev £625M v £998M y/y. H1 home completions 4,006 units. Cancellation rate 16%. H2 Forward sales revenue £700M v £458M h/h. || Air France [AF.FR] Reports June load factor 80.3% v 81.5% y/y (passengers). Cargo load factor 65.4% v 65.4% y/y. Cargo traffic -0.4% y/y. Passenger numbers -6.4% y/y. Traffic -6.4% y/y. || Peugot [UG.FR]Reports H1 unit sales 1.59M units (-14% y/y). H1 Peugeot sales 937K, H1 Citroen sales 650K. || Deutsche Bank [DBK.GE] DPW reportedly has completed sale of stake in firm. States that sale raised €100M more than initially expected. Total of 50M shares sold in operations. || Air Berlin [AB1.GE] Reports June Load Factor 79.1% v 80.9% y/y. Passenger count 2.57M (-4.9% y/y). Capacity -2.7% y/y. || Fiat [F.IT] Overall investment with Guangzhou Auto venture will be above €400M. Accord includes building new factory to begin production in 2011. Phase 1 production seen at 140K per year. ||

- Speakers: US Econ Advisor Tyson commented that the USD was unlikely to face significant decline but "must" fall over long term period. A Spiraling USD is in no one's interest. She noted that a second stimulus package must be considered and that export led growth would require a weaker USD.
China needs to move towards domestic demand led growth. ||| Brazilian Pres Lula commented that the USD to remain important currency for decades, but world dependence on a single currency was not a good thing. Lula noted that it would not be so simple to replace USD as the benchmark for world trade and would take long time to make switch away ||| Reportedly China's PM Wen Jiabao and advisers reiterated the need to maintain an 'easy' monetary policy and agreed on the need to pay attention to Chinese inflationary expectations. ***Reminder: As recent as Jun 25th, the PBoC Monetary Policy Report reiterated the need to o maintain "relatively loose" monetary policy citing that the economic recovery was not yet on solid footing || Japanese Fin Min Yosano commented that consumption levels remain the key to global economic outlook. He noted that major players (US, Japanese and European officials) believe that the worst of the recession was now over || IMF commented on South Korea and noted that the country's recent data pointed towards recovery. However, the IMF cautioned that the global slowdown would limit the strength of any economic rebound. It did note that the exchange rate was appropriate and forecasts 2010 GDP growth of 2.5%. It noted that economic downside risks included higher oil prices and its monetary policy should remain on hold || President Obama stated that both US and Russia have common interest in reversing spread of nuclear arms and can forge partnerships on energy. Russia must respect State sovereignty applies to all, including Georgia, Ukraine. NATO seeks collaboration, not confrontation with Russia ||| Frecnh Presidential Aide commented that G8 does not generally discuss currency topics and that this week's Italian summit was not the appropriate forum to discuss currencies. He added that now was not the time to discuss cuts to stimulus spending as it could risk prolong recession || OECD Head Gurria: Reiterates that now is not appropriate time to remove stimulus operations

- Concerned that growth potential levels may not recover to pre-crisis levels

- In Currencies: The currency markets maintain their recent range that characterized yesterday's session. The price action was somewhat choppy. Most of the movement was attributed to order flow with Mid-East names cited as the main driver. The EUR/USD maintaining a 1.39 to 1.40 range and USD/JPY unable to sustain breaks below the 95 handle. The better-than-expected German factory orders helping the euro probe back towards the 1.40 level as the NY morning approached.

- The reserve currency issue continues to provide a rationale behind the erratic price action. The session saw a barrage of comments from all sorts of government officials from around the globe. US Econ Advisor Tyson provided a 'vague' view of the USD in which it had both strong and weak characteristic (see above speaker section). Brazilian President Lula commented that the USD to remain important currency for decades, but world dependence on a single currency was not a good thing. Lula noted that it would not be so simple to replace USD as the benchmark
US official reported that President Obama and Russian PM Putin did not discuss either oil or the USD during their meeting. Russian Kremlin Aide Dvorkovich commented that Russia has no plans to undermine the USD. He noted that Russia and China to stress need for gradual development of new reserve currency at the upcoming G8 summit

in talks this morning.

- On the potential trend one chief dealer noting that the most recent IMM data from Chicago futures showed that outstanding short dollar contracts recently rose from 73k to 85k resulting in the largest short positions since July 2008.


- In Energy/Commodities: BASF [BAS.GE] The company and Sinopec received Chinese government approval to expand petrochemical jv in
Eastern China. Both companies plan to spend $1.4B to expand the plant, which is located in Nanjing with operations expected to commence in 2011 ||India Q1 Steel Imports Y/Y: 1.41M tons, down 5.3%; and Exports Y/Y at 640K tons, down 38%


- In Fixed Income Supply: Sovereign nations are increasingly using the option of syndication for debt issuance to avoid the negative consequences of weak or failed auctions. It is proving to be successful with order books on
Italy's 15y BTP and Netherlands 5y DSL said to be well in excess of the intended issuance, and orders on Poland's USD denominated 10y issue are said to be 4 times the intended $2B size. The DMO sold £4B in a new 10y Gilt. The auction was covered a feeble 1.96 times, drawing a relatively large 1bps yield tail. Yield curves are undergoing bear steepening in all three major markets, with Treasuries holding up better than Bunds and Gilts on a cross markets basis. Three month Euribor continued its decline to fix at a new low of 1.044%.


- Credit Crisis: NY Times noted that
France planned to spend 75% of its stimulus this year. Article noted that France's more centralized, state-directed economy - so often criticized in good times for smothering entrepreneurship and holding back growth - was proving remarkably effective at deploying funds quickly and efficiently in bad times in its $37B economic stimulus program. The article noted that the White House was giving itself until fall 2010 to lay out that big a share of the American expenditure


- Upcoming G8 Summit: Reportedly to discuss exit strategies from crisis mode. German unconfirmed 'source' noted that the G8 draft does not include mention of any oil price regulation but did seek more transparency in oil markets. The G8 draft to demand an end to protectionism and commitment to WTO's
DOHA round of trade agreements. The G8 and G5 leaders tell ministers to meet on Doha prior to G-20 summit in Pittsburgh. German senior official: The official stated that he did not expect specific currency pairs to be discussed at G8 and it would not include USD reserve role.


- Geo-Political: Saudi Arabia denied reports regarding Israeli use of its airspace or any hostile activities || US also denied press speculation of giving Israel 'permission' to attack Iran according to Haaretz


*** NOTES ***

- Headline roulette on the USD as official step up to their turn at the microphone at the upcoming G8 and friends' summit…

- European data in session was mixed. UK production data falls more than expected while German factory orders exceed expectations

- BoC's research bureau Zhang, China's Q2 GDP growth may have risen to as much as 7.5% vs. 6.1% in Q1 - China Finance


***Looking Ahead***

- 7:00 (BR) Brazil Jun FGV Inflation IGP-DI: -0.2%e v +0.2% prior

- 7:30 (SP) Spanish Fin Min Salgado

- 8:30 (CA) Canadian May Building Permits: 0.8%e v -5.4% prior

- 8:30 (CL) Chile Jun Trade Balance: $944Me v $956M prior

- 10:00 (CA) Canadian Ivey Purchasing Managers Index: 50.3e v 48.4 prior

 

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