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Forex Blog - European market Update: Markets back in a corrective mood; Focus on BOE's Quantitative Easing portion of policy meeting; Will US initial claims to finally move back below the 600K level?

European market Update: Markets back in a corrective mood; Focus on BOE's Quantitative Easing portion of policy meeting; Will US initial claims to finally move back below the 600K level?

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***
- (JP) Japan June Final Machine Tool Orders Y/Y: -73.1% v -79.20% prior
- (GE) German June Preliminary Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.4% v 0.4%e; Y/Y 0.1% v 0.1%e
- (GE) German June Final CPI - EU Harmonized M/M: % v 0.4%e; Y/Y % v 0.0%e
- 2:00 (GE) German May Trade Balance €9.6B v €9.0Be; Current Account: €3.7B v €3.7Be
- (GE) German May Imports M/M: -2.1% v 0.8%e; Exports M/M: 0.3% v 1.5%e
- (CZ) Czech Jun CPI M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e;Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.3%e
- (CZ) Czech Jun Unemployment Rate 8.0% v 8.1%e
- (HU) Hungarian May Prelim Trade Balance: €479.8M v €230.0Me
- (DE) Danish May Current Account (DKK): 6.0 v 4.3Be; Trade Bal. X Ship sa (DKK): 3.3B v 4.3Be
- (NV) Netherlands Jun CPI M/M: -0.3% v -0.4%e; Y/Y 1.4% v 1.5%e
- (NV) Netherlands Jun CPI - EU Harmonized M/M -0.4% v -0.4%e; Y/Y 1.4% v 1.4% e
- (SW) Swedish Jun CPI - Headline Rate M/M 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y -0.6% v -0.7% e
- (SW) Swedish Jun CPI - Underlying Infl. M/M: 0.2% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.2%e
- (SW) Swedish Jun CPI Level: 300.17 v 299.45e
- (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserves w/e Jul 3rd: $409.1B v $410.5B prior
- (UK) May Visible Trade Balance: £ v -£6.75Be (narrowest reading since mid-2006); Total Trade Balance: £ v -£2.85Be; Trade Balance non-EU: £ v -£3.90Be;
- (EU) ECB Publishes July Monthly Report : Reiterates view that the 1.0% interest rate level is appropriate and economic recovery will be slow

*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***
- In equities news overnight: Equity markets in Europe staged an opening recovery from 3 straight sessions of equity losses. Equity gains followed a mixed session in
Asia, but took momentum from earnings out of Alcoa [AA] that bid not only heavy manufacturers, but the miners and recourse sectors that supply them. Sector notes on European Chemicals from JPMorgan and on European Automotives from BAC/Merrill both to the positive side added additional equity encouragement. Markets shook off a downtrend past 3:00EST to rally sharply and push towards new trading level highs. Equities continued their light trend through 3:00EST and into the 4:00EST. Ahead of UK trade balance data at 4:00EST, equities took another leg up and then proceeded to maintain those levels follow in line data. Strength in equities continues to be driven by up trending mining, industrial, chemical and auto names with defensive sectors lagging the trend. Volumes on the FTSE, CAC and DAX remain muted and below moving averages. Equity markets and traders are now awaiting UK BOE MPC comments and the release of US retail SSS figures for the month of June.

-In individual equities: SABMiller [SAB.UK] Lowered European sales volume targets to +2-4% y/y v +4-6% previous estimates through 2013. Reduction in European forecast made on the back of maturing markets and reductions in estimated for Russian markets. Seeking to expand Nigerian brewery operations. States that
Europe sales and trading as very tough. Short term Europe volume levels seen as flat. || Anglo American [AAL.UK] Xstrata's proposed £40B merger with the company has effectively collapsed after Anglo's. Shareholders rejected the approach - London Times. All of Anglo's leading institutional investors are understood to have turned down Xstrata's nil-premium merger of equals. Seeking a premium of between 30-50% to complete the deal. || Man Group [EMG.UK] Provides interim statement: Firm's financial position remains strong. Funds under Management (FUM) at 30 June of $43.3B compared to $44B announced at end May (31 March 2009: $46.8B). CEO "With positive industry returns for 2009 to date and increasing investor focus on businesses with the resources and experience to adapt to today's market requirements, Man's financial strength and investment breadth means we are well placed to grow market share." || Associated British Food [ABF.UK] Provided interim trading statement: Reports Q3 Rev +15% y/y, 9 month Rev +19% y/y. Sugar rev +19% y/y, Agriculture rev +12% y/y, Grocery rev +10% y/y, Retail rev +21% y/y. || Royal Dutch Shell [RDSA.UK] Mulling closing of Montreal refinery - KBS. Union that represents most of the 550 employees at a Shell Canada refinery in Montreal says closing the facility is one of five options being considered. || Cobham [COB.UK] Awarded $32M US Navy Contract for Low Band Transmitters. || Rolls Royce [RR.UK] Announced Air New Zealand order for trent 1000 for Boeing 787 aircraft. || Babcock and Brown [BAB.UK] Providedinterim statement: Markets in which we operate remain resilient and we remain confident they will continue to provide significant opportunities for growth. Our order book has increased to stand at around £6 billion as a result of further new contract wins. || Air Liquide [AI.FR] purchased 75% stake in Saudi based Al Kafrah Industrial Gases. Financial terms of buy not released. || Air France [AF.FR] Update: CEO: Have yet to see signs of recovery; can not rule out additional temporary layoffs -Le Figaro. || Kaufman [KOF.FR] Reports 1H Net loss €27.5M v profit €11.7M y/y. Notes order volume increased in Q2. || Schindler Holding [SCHN.SZ] Reportedly wins contracts for operations at Berlin and Kolkata. Group will install 177 units. Financial details not released. || Credit Suisse [CSGN.SZ] Co had no significant outflow of client funds after Switzerland eased secrecy laws - Neue Luzerner Zeitung. Credit Suisse is "satisfied" with the course of business given the "challenging" environment. || Finmeccanica [FNC.IT] Reportedly completes placement of $500M 10yr and $300M 30yr USD bond sale. Reminder: In yesterdays session reportedly considering 10 year USD denominated benchmark bond offer. || Holcim [HOLN.SZ] Has sold CHF1B in 4.5 year bonds with 4% coupon. Proceeds to be used for refinancing operations. Have refinanced CHF3.8B ytd. ||

- Speakers: Pres Obama and Brazil Pres Lula did not discuss issue of the USD as reserve currency || Japan MoF Sugimoto reiterated the view that
Japan will continue watching currency markets closely. Comments in line with other Japanese officials from the Asian session ||OECD's Gurria commented at the G8 summit that the USD would continue as a large reserve currency . He stressed the need t continue stimulating the global economies at this time and enact consolidation later. He did noted that governments can plan exit strategies but must not implement them yet in order to ensure 'green shoots become leafs' || HKMA Yam commented that the global financial crisis was continuing and that economic recovery of developed nations would be slow. He noted that Investors should be cautious and not exclude the chance of disappointment || Russia Fin Min Kudrin stated that Russia's 2010 budget deficit could hit 6.5-7.5% of GDP. (Back on Jun 30th Russian Kremlin Advisor Dvorkovich stated that Russia's budget gap may exceed 6% of GDP in 2010) || German recession might have ended in Q2 according to an 'unnamed' German official. German Q2 GDP might be flat or slightly positive || ECB's Wellink reiterated that Europe was not showing signs of a credit crunch

- In Currencies: The USD and JPY currencies saw a larger portion of their Wednesday gains retrace during the European morning. The price action was mirrored by higher energy and metal prices. The EUR/USD was inching back towards the 1.40 neighborhood as it was up around 100 pips from its opening levels in
Asia. Some reversal of risk aversion was helped by the South Korea central bank which noted that its Q2 growth was better than expected, but unsure about sustainability of momentum and the after hours Alcoa earnings report viewed as less bad than expected. A German official was reportedly to believe that the recession inside Germany might have ended in Q2 with GDP coming in flat or slightly positive. USD/JPY was higher during the European morning approached its key pivot point near the 93.70 level before retreating. This 93.70 level was a prior level where the Japanese Postal System as seen selling JPY back in May. The non-appearance of any official names saw the JPY quickly firm and elects significant stops. The GBP/USD bounced nicely off its April uptrend line at 1.6000 and was just under the 1.62 level ahead of the Bank of England interest rate decision later today. Dealers will focus on the Quantitative Easing (QE) measures to gauge the next direction of the GBP currency. The BOE is expected to hit the ceiling of its £125B QE program and still has £25B in authorization remaining. In other currency matters press speculation noting that China FX reserves might have reached $2T mark in Jun compare to $1.99B in May.

- In Energy: WSJ Currency Trading section noted that rumors that Chinese companies might be canceling their commodity contracts and attributed the rumor to the recent strong performance of the Japanese Yen currency ||WSJ "Heard on the Street" saw prospects for further decline in crude prices and used Wednesday continued increase in fuel stocks amid lackluster demand for their conclusion. The column also cited OPEC cutting its forecast in the most recent medium-term outlook in prior session and Saudi Arabia cutting the official price for exports to the U.S. on Sunday

- In Fixed Income Supply: Government bond markets are wildly divergent this morning in Europe in a session devoid of any supply and effectively on pause until the BoE rate decision. The German yield curve is flatter, with the short end under pressure and the long end holding onto marginal gains. The
UK yield curve is also flatter but with lower yields and better buying of longer dated Gilts. Treasuries, meanwhile, are being offered across the term structure , with the yield curve in bear steepening mode. Three month Euribor reset at another record low of 1.018%

- Credit Crisis: Bundesrat ( German upper house) would pass bad bank bill with large majority and also would will not block second supplementary budget ||London Times noted that a majority of the Times panel advised the BOE to pause in its ground-breaking efforts to jump-start growth . According to the Times Monetary Policy Committee, growing signs that
Britain was poised to recover from recession should lead the BOE to put its controversial scheme to inject newly created money into the economy on hold from this month. A 5-strong majority of the 9-member expert panel called for the BOE to halt its quantitative-easing program as soon as it completes its present £125B of planned purchases. The majority of the Times MPC also called for the BOE to make clear to edgy markets nervous over fragile recovery prospects that it stands ready to return to the offensive, and to extend quantitative easing, if there is any hint that the economic revival might falter. || Fitch: Credit profiles of Indian auto suppliers remain under pressure

*** NOTES ***
-
China Think Tank (State Information Center believes Chinese economy has bottomed out, but does translate into a recovery. Recommended no further interest rate cuts this year to prevent inflation
- China's June domestically made auto sales +36.5% y/y to 1.1M units
- South Korea Central Bank:Q2 GDP is far batter than expected
- Alcoa corporate earnings less bad than expected
- Russia planning to issue RUB equivalent of $15 bio in bonds for bank capital injections. I believe
China did similar recently. Problem is no one buys them.
-
Japan officials: Closely watching currency market price action closely.

***Looking Ahead*** US Same-store-sales; BOE interest rate decision and US claims data
- 7:00 (UK) BoE Interest Rate Decision: No change to current Bank Rate of 0.50% expected; Focus will be on Quantitative Easing QE measures
- 8:15 (CA) Canadian Jun Housing Starts 130.0K e v 128.4K prior
- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims w/e Jul 4th 603K e v 614K prior
- 8:30 (US) Continuing Claims w/e Jun 27th 6.71M e v 6.702M prior
- 9:00 (US) Fed's Duke speaks in Chicago
- 10:00 (MX) Mexican Jun Consumer Prices (MoM) 0.2% e v -0.3% prior ; (YoY) 5.8% e v 6.0% prior
- 10:00 (MX) Jun Consumer Prices Core (MoM) 0.3% e v 0.3% prior
- 10:00 (US) May Wholesale Inventories -1.00% e v -1.40% prior
- 11:00 (US) Jun ICSC Chain Store Sales
- 11:00 (US) Fed Treasury Coupon repurchase ( 2010 - 2011s)
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $11B 30y Notes in reopening

 

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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
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01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
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14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

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  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



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