User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday July 9, 2009 - 13:05:25 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

Random Thoughts: Stimulus, Confidence, T-Notes, Dollar (yen)

Key News
• The Dollar: It’s an Overhang, not a Hangover One person’s perspective at the Council on Foreign Relations blog.
• Bank of England Keeps Purchase Plan at $202 Billion, Leaves Rate Unchanged (Bloomberg)

Key Reports Due (WSJ):
8:30 a.m. Initial Jobless Claims For July 4 Week: Expected: -4K. Previous: -16K.
10:00 a.m. May Wholesale Trade: Expected: -1%. Previous: -1.4%.
10:00 a.m. DJ-BTMU Business Barometer For June 26: Previous: +0.1%.
N/A June Chain-Store Sales


Quotable
“Money is the barometer of a society's virtue.”

        Ayn Rand

FX Trading – Random Thoughts: Stimulus, Confidence, T-Notes, Dollar (yen)

It’s Thursday, the currencies are retracing again so we figured what better time than now to throw together some random thoughts on the markets, news and whatever else. Enjoy!

Stimulus in the Headlines

Bloomberg.com is guiltiest here, as they seem to have a strict model used in formulating their headlines and stories. Anyway, it’s starting to get annoying when everything “positive” coming out of China is credited to the government’s “stimulus”. Sure, some items have been directly or indirectly influenced by the stimulus, but to the extreme degree with which it is painted by reporters?

Car sales, corporate earnings, share prices, commodity demand, manufacturing gains ... all “undoubtedly” boosted by stimulus. But what about loan growth? The number of loans issued in June jumped fivefold from the year before. This 2009 lending surge is certainly a big reason for much economic activity. Tie it back to stimulus if you’d like, but be sure to tie the subsequent asset bubble back to stimulus too.  In fairness, Bloomberg did cover this too, but it is there emphasis on the consensus that irks us a times.  But maybe this is part and parcel to why the consensus view consistently gathers such momentum. 

Australia: What’s in the water Down Under?

Whatever the Australians are drinking is either really refreshing ... or it’s making them crazy. I say this because yesterday was a release of consumer sentiment. After a nearly unprecedented jump in sentiment last month, the most recent estimate climbed another 9.3%. The last two months represent the largest two-month increase since this survey began back in 1975; this 23.2% two-month rise far outpaced the next biggest 18.8% two-month rise back in 1992.

With many economic gauges still flashing mixed signals. It’s believed that an improvement in national accounts is helping the cause. Additionally, two pieces of stimulus have been passed through Australia and now, in the wake of the second stimulus, it seems the handouts are having the desired effect. I’m just surprised I didn’t see a headline crediting the surge in confidence to China’s stimulus!

A 10-Year Auction for the Ages

Late in the trading day yesterday a 10-year Treasury Note auction went off extremely well. It was noted as one of the most successful auctions in several years. The bid-to-cover, if you’re interested was above three. In other words, there was more than three times as much demand than the amount eventually sold to bidders.

What’s it mean? Well, the kneejerk reaction was positive for the stock market. But stocks faded as the results set in. What this auction, plus the fact that 10-year yields are sharply off their June highs, means for the markets could be a precursor to renewed risk aversion. The June unemployment numbers aren’t sitting well. Perhaps that’s given many reason enough to reexamine several other factors and conclude that recovery may be much further away than the recent spurt of optimism led us to believe.

US Dollar: A whole lot of nothing going on.

The range-bound, choppiness, backing-and-filling, sideways stuff continues. Some of the currencies, as paired against the dollar, have broken somewhat key technical levels. But so far it’s been fairly near-term stuff. And a look at the US dollar index still reveals the big snooze-fest (of course the Japanese yen is the exception; maybe some Asian money hiding there on China risk?):

 

(Charts unavailable in text format.)
 

The longer the sideways price action the more powerful the breakout move is usually the rule from a technical perspective…stay tuned.

Regards,

John Ross Crooks, III
Black Swan Capital LLC
www.blackswantrading.com

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 23 October 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 24 Oct
All Day flash PMIs
Wed 25 Oct
01:30 AU- CPI
08:00 DE- IFO Survey
08:30 GB- GDP
14:00 CA- BOC Decision
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 26 Oct
11:45 EZ- ECB Decision
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:00 US- Pending Homes Sales
Fri 27 Oct
12:30 US- GDP
14:00 US- final Univ of Michigan

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- All Day Global flash PMIs. First good look at October economic performances.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 01:30 GMT AU- CPI. Top Inflation indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 08:00 GMT DE- IFO Survey. Top German indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed-- 14:00 GMT CA- BOC Decision. No Policy Change Expected.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top Weekly WTI Statistic.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105