User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Friday July 10, 2009 - 12:47:10 GMT
Black Swan Capital -

Share This Story:
| | Email

China Panic!

Key News
• China’s overseas sales slid 21.4 percent in June from a year earlier, the customs bureau said today on its Web site, after a record 26.4 percent drop in May. (Bloomberg)
• The cost of borrowing longer-term U.S. dollars in the London interbank market continued to fall Friday, with the key three-month rate reaching its lowest since the advent of British Bankers' Association Libor fixings back in 1986. (WSJ)
• Producer prices fell at a record pace in Japan 6.6 percent. (Bloomberg)
Key Reports Due (WSJ):
10:00 a.m. May Trade Balance: Expected: -$30.0B. Previous: -$29.16B.
10:00 a.m. June Import Prices: Expected: +1.9%. Previous: +1.3%.
10:00 a.m. Mid-July Reuters/U Mich Sentiment Index: Previous: 69.

“All war is based on deception.”

                             Sun Tzu

FX Trading – China Panic!
China is dead in the water without exports.  They are in panic mode.  That is why they are flooding their economy with massive amounts of capital and suppressing any hint of decent everywhere.  That is why they have chased out the major financial news outlets, and forced them to take all cues from the state.  But no matter how many bridges they build, excess capacity they expand, stock market propping they do, dollar reserve currency jawboning they employ, or internet sites they shut down, it doesn’t change the fact that exports have crumbled and until Mr. US Consumer starts buying again, it will get worse instead of better.  The brunt of global rebalancing is upon, as it is for all those so dependent on exports.

Our piece earlier this week warning of falling BRICs is based on China as the major disappointment that could trigger another major run out of emerging markets.  And that means the dollar (likely yen too—more on that from our special guest below) catches a major risk bid. 


----Internal Sponsorship ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Currency Strategist: The Premier Daily Trading Report from Black Swan
No stone goes unturned in this analysis of global markets and foreign exchange. Each day, this report brings it all: development of long-term market themes, price and sentiment analysis in various timeframes, plus trading recommendations on currency futures, spot FX, currency options and currency-related ETFs
Find the strategies that suit your trading style. Learn more and sign up
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Given that China seems to be the corporate earnings touchstone, the impact of disappointment would most likely rippled through the earnings forecasts of all those companies who believe that stimulating infrastructure, property, and stock markets, is the same as stimulating either domestic demand or exports. We think analysts will learn that GDP growth and the real stuff that makes an economy work can at times be two completely different animals.   That new realization would likely hammer US stocks in its wake—green shoots morph to brown weeds.

Bottom line: we think there is only you need to know about what’s happening in China, and it is this…

 (Chart unavailable in text format.)

What is interesting is that these are OFFICIAL statistics!  It makes one wonder—a skeptical mind that is.

Jack Crooks
Black Swan Capital LLC




A guest piece today from Yves Lamoureux, Investment Advisor, Blackmont Capital Inc.

Systematic desensitization from reality…..

Economic discourse has hardly changed.  What was not seen and forecasted is rarely challenged today. The same dead heads speak and we listen. It becomes increasingly difficult for the average man to keep his  critical thinking at this important juncture. Herd mentality is strong and responsible for herd thinking. We on the other hand kept our deflation cap on and never changed optics unless we had to.

Recent optimism is misplaced.  Never has an economy rebounded vigorously in a low rate environment. Put another way around, there is no more magic bullets. The scale of the excess is going to be matched by the length of the adjustment. We simply love the unwinding theme since early 2007 and part of that strategy has been to be long yen. Here is an excerpt from “Why financial air raids are about to start “written in March 2007.

I believe one way of being naturally short stocks is to be long “things.”  Preferably Oil, Gold & Yen. In our essay we pointed at the carry trade as culprit. There are of course more problems to come. This is what we will find out in the “price discovery”. The Yen will take time to unwind. Especially given how fashionable it had become for Japanese investors buying Uridashis. At the point of recognition we will still have another 50% move to unwind the trade. It is exactly at the time of maximum anxiety that investors will repatriate funds invested overseas. This could become an enormous problem for all markets. Confidence cycle analysis points down to 2011.
We believe today that we are close to that recognition point which will mark that half way point in the great unwinding. As a rule this suggests more painful corrections ahead. You will notice from the graphs the great tendency of the yen to lead stocks (charts below). It did it before and looks to be doing it again. We recently broke very critical level and this does not bode well for the market. It is a signal of more deflation ahead.





Japanese yen – US $
 (Chart unavailable in text format.)
Dow Jones Industrial Average:
 (Chart unavailable in text format.)

Climbing a wall of worry would actually be a good feeling .People seem empowered by talk of greenshoots and this mass hysteria can only lead to trouble.  Systematic desensitization is a type of behavioral therapy used in psychology to help overcome phobias.  The phobia of risk in the stock market is gone.  We can only thank the master puppeteer for that.

Yves Lamoureux, Investment Advisor, Blackmont Capital Inc.

The opinions contained in this report are those of the author and are not necessarily those of Blackmont Capital Inc.. Every effort has been made to ensure that the contents of this document have been compiled or derived from sources believed to be reliable and contains information and opinions which are accurate and complete. However, neither the author nor BCI makes any representation or warranty, expressed or implied, in respect thereof, or takes any responsibility for any errors or omissions which may be contained herein or accepts any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from any use of or reliance on this report or its contents. BCI is an independently owned subsidiary of CI Financial. CI Financial is a Canadian owned diversified wealth management firm, publicly traded on the TSX under the symbol CIX. Blackmont Capital Inc. is a member of CIPF and IIROC.


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 10 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output
Tue 11 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 12 Sep 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 18:00 US- Beige Book
Thu 13 Sep 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 14 Sep 2018
A 08:30 GB- GDP
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105