Thursday January 27, 2005 - 09:49:41 GMT
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Forex Morning Meeting - European Session 27/1/2005
Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. The Crude oil is trading around the $49 level, slipping more than sixty cents after proven again unable to break the $50 barrier. In the US stock markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average recovered more territory and closed around the 10.500 level, attempting to make its indicators to turn bullish for the index.
Forex Technicals at a glance
Euro/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.3075 level. The single currency hit 1.3125 in early european session, but feel down to current levels, halted by the 1.3125 dinamic resistance. Well, apart from the divergence in the indicators watch levels 1 and 2, there is not much more to add to the current EUR behaviour compared to previous days. Fibonacci retracement levels have proved themselves to hold the key for the next big swing in the foreign exchange markets, and while they arenít broken, in the upside or in the downside, we will probably be watching swings back-and-forth and stop hunting around.
Moving averages overview : EUR has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2520. We have a bearish cross from the 2 shorter mving averages, with the 20-day crossing down the 50-day. Therefore, and from a moving averages point of view, short positions are preferred, which should eventually yield some.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator): EUR Negative (signaled short on december 31, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2 : EUR Positive.
Gbp/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.8850 level. Pair just closed barely above the 1.8750/760 area, and now is trading well off it, and also interesting, above the 20-day moving average. If it holds here, a move to the 50-day moving, around 1.90 is well on cards. Both moving averages, however, hold a bearish cross. Therefore, around the 1.90, fresh short net positions would probably arise.
Moving averages overview : GBP has its 200-day moving average today at 1.8370. We have the 20-day moving average cross the 50-day on the down for some time now.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : GBP Neutral. Indicators watch-level 2: GBP Positive, showing some strength for the currency.
Usd/Chf : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.1825 level. After failing to break above the 1.1960 key area, pair is barely holding above its 20-day moving average, which in case of a break, will be an alert signal. 50-day moving average is far from current levels, but it will be the key support if the dollar heads south. They both hold a bullish cross, so buying around moving averages is advisable for now. However, and similar to the EUR case, we have the divergence between indicators watch level 1 and 2, so uncertainty may rule the pair for now, and, as I said in previous reports, this also means both ways (short / long) may yield eventually some if traded.
Moving averages overview : USD has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2276. The 20-day holds above the 50-day after the bullish cross a few days ago.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : USD Bullish (signaled long on december 30, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2: USD Negative.
Eur/Gbp : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.6940 level. Playing with its channel, it rbounded a bit after yet again testing the lower line of the channel. Moving averages are again close to each other and a cross south could happen, reinforcing the bearish tone for the pair, which, unless spurting back up, looks weak for now.
Moving averages overview : pair has its 200-day moving average at 0.6812 today. The pair is below both its 50-day moving average and its 20-day one, but they still hold a bullish cross, though the 20-day keeps moving south and is near the 50-day on a south cross.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : EUR negative (signaled short on january, 10). Indicators Wacth-level 2 : EUR Neutral-to positive.
Indicators watch-Level 1 : Trend indicators Direction, providing some useful investment information.
Indicators watch-Level 2 : Momentum Indicators Direction (working in pairs), providing current market sentiment for the instrument.
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