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Tuesday July 14, 2009 - 10:05:35 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: European data shows a mixed bag. German ZEW economic sentiment declines for the first time in nine months, Euro-Zone industrial production rises for the first time

Today 05:57am EST/09:57am GMT

European Market Update: European data shows a mixed bag. German ZEW economic sentiment declines for the first time in nine months, Euro-Zone industrial production rises for the first time since last August; UK inflation falls below 2% target



- (CZ) Czech May Retail Sales Y/Y: -7.5% v -1.5%e

- (HU) Hungarian June CPI M/M: 0.1% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: 3.7% v 4.1%e

- (CZ) Czech May Current Account Monthly (CZK): -11.7BB v -3.2Be

- (UK) May DCLG UK House Prices Y/Y:-12.5% v -12.6%e

- (UK) June CPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.8%e; Core CPI Y/Y: 1.6% v 1.6%e

- (UK) June Retail Price Index 213.4 v 213.7e

- (UK) June RPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: -1.6% v -1.6%e; RPIX Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.1%

- (GE) German July ZEW Econ Sentiment: 39.5 v 47.8e; Current Situation: -89.3 v -87.8e

- (EU) ZEW Survey Econ. Sentiment: 39.5 v 44e

- (EU) Euro-Zone Ind. Prod M/M: 0.5% v 1.5%e; Y/Y: -17.0% v -17.5%e


- In equities news overnight: Equity markets opened to a muted positive open but quickly slipped southward with the DAX and CAC falling below the unchanged line. This equity action was a broad disappointment following yesterday's strong rally in NY and the transition of equity appetite into Asian trading (ASX200 +3.5%). Equity news, earnings and analyst actions remained light in the European pre-market as the ramp up to earnings season in paused as
France celebrated its national holiday. Pre-market equity news remained bearish with German solar firm Q-Cells [QCE.GE] providing not only disappointing Q2 numbers, but a very negative outlook for the remainder of 2009. These comments had a negative effect on the pan European solar sector. Statements from REC [REC.NO] and TomTom [TOM2.NV] regarding the status of their share placements and timing of rump offers provided additional negative sentiment. Initial downside trades could not, however, totally dampen interest in financial names ahead of expected earnings out of Goldman Sachs [GS] in the coming NY pre-market. Past 3:40EST, equities staged a rally led by the financial sector with investment banking names specifically outperforming. Other sector out performers included UK listed miners on the back of continued commodity price actions and Auto's following statements from BMW [BMW.GE] regarding a potential output ramp up. Equities continued their upward push on the back of financial sector strength through 4:00EST, chopping up and down through June UK data at 4:30EST before limiting gains following ZEW data on Germany and Euro-zone at 5:00EST. Both ZEW figures, reading 39.5 were below expectations and represented the first decline in the sentiment index in 9 consecutive reads. Despite the initial fall, markets recovered and maintained a positive footing with the DAX +0.7%, CAC +0.25% and the FTSE +0.6%. Trading volumes remained surprisingly spry with figures on all three main bourses below average trading ranges but not in a significant manner. Into 5:00EST equities clearly looked ahead to significant earnings data out of major pharma JNJ [JNJ] and Goldman Sachs [GS] in the pre-markets and Intel after the NY close [INTC].

-In individual equities: BMW [BMW.GE] Executive board member Robertson said the company wants to increase production in the next 6 months, expects to see demand shift back to growth by the end of 2009 compared to a year earlier - FT. The increase in production would be due partially to a new sports utility vehicle and a sports sedan being made . ||Salzgitter [SZG.GE] Provided update: July capacity utilization around 70% to 80%. Stated that current recovery trend remains, unable to determine if it is fully sustainable. Saw an uptick in orders in recent weeks and had fewer workers on short-time. Reminder: On June 22 - Expects capacity utilization to be around 75-80% at the end of June v current 30-50% (in line with comments seen on May 27). || Sberbank [SBER.RU] Reported Q1 Net RUB600M below estimates of RUB1.6B., Revenuecame in at RUB144.2B above consensus of RUB140.2B. Q1 Provisions for loan losses RUB90.7B v RUB7.5B y/y. Q1 Net interest income +37.2% y/y. Q1 || Q-Cells [QCE.GE] Reported Prelim Q2 EBIT loss €62M well below estimates for a profit of €21.1M, Revenues came in at €142M compared to €312.9M estimates.. The prolonged weak development of the global photovoltaics markets has continued to negatively impact the business development . ||Britvic [BVIC.UK] Provided Q3 Interim Statement: with Rev £249.1M (+5.9% y/y), YTD Rev £732.3M (+6.1% y/y). || TomTom [TOM2.NV] Reported 96% takeup in €430M (55% of market cap) rights offering, rump offering to take place today. In connection with its 5 for 8 rights offering, 81,817,085 new ordinary shares were subscribed for through the exercise of SETs, Rump Offering of 3.5M new ordinary shares to take place today . || Morgan Sindall [MGNS.UK Awarded £71M contract with Airbus. Project is expected to complete by October 2010. || C&C [CCR.UK] The company's shares declined after it corrected overstated figures - London Times. The company's CEO said that "incompetence not malevolence" was responsible for an error that led the company to publish inaccurate trading figures. The FSA and Irish Stock Exchange are understood to be probing the matter, which led to a 16% decline in the company's share price yesterday. || Alcatel Lucent [ALU.FR]
Union asks for meeting with French President Sarkozy over job cuts. Reminder: last week it was reported the company has told labor unions it plans to cut 1,000 jobs in France by 2010 (about 1.3% of total workforce). || Lafarge [LG.FR] Planning to nearly double the revenue contribution of its Indian unit to 8% over the next 3 to 5 years - LiveMint. The Indian unit plans to acquire other firms and build new plants to meet the target. In Q1, Lafarge's sales from Asia rose by 19% y/y. || Software [SOW.GE] Guided Q2 Rev in a range of €175-177M in line with estimates of €178M.. Guides Q2 License sales €42-43M v €45.6M y/y, Guides Q2 EBIT margin 25% v 24.3% y/y, Guides FY09 Rev growth 4-8% (ex fx impact). Had no plans for capital increase for takeover of IDS Scheer -conf call. Acquisition to be financed through €107M in cash on hand and €385M in debts to be paid down by 2012. Sees combination of group as unit with sales of approx €1B per year. Reminder: On July 13: Software AG announced offer for IDS Scheer at €15/share, both boards have approved operations. || Daimler [DAI.GE] Planned to sell 40% of its stake in Tesla Motors to Abu Dhabi''s Aabar Investments PJSC - WSJ. Note, Daimler bought nearly 10% of Tesla for an unspecified price back in May, only suggesting it was double-digit millions of euros. || Renewable Energy [REC.NO] Rights issue oversubscribed by 60% to 269M shares v 170.5M shares offered. Allocation of shares to the subscribers is expected to be resolved by the board of directors of REC on or about July 17, 2009 in accordance with the allocation criteria set out in the prospectus. ||

- Speakers: US Treasury Sec Geithner reiterated his view that has been initial signs of global economic stabilization. He again cautioned that the recovery would slow, with additional set backs possible. He noted that countries face long period of borrowing following crisis. Credit markets are opening up but remain tight. Geithner noted that the
US has a special responsibility to deal with crisis due to role of USD as global reserve currency. the US would continue to seek actions that prove credible willingness to reduce debt || BoE's Bean commented in a newspaper interview that the BoE did not have to keep making regular asset purchases for Quantitative Easing measures (QE) to have effect. He did note that the total amount of QE was important. - Asset sales would take place over an appropriate timescale, market conditions permitting. He reiterated view that it is plausible that BoE will raise rates and sell back assets when time is adequate || Japan New Vice Fin Min Tango commented that the worst was over for Japanese economy at this time although he sought that the BoJ keep conducting policy in close cooperation with gov't. He stressed that the MOF would do utmost to support economy and not focus on an exit strategy. He noted that Japan was keeping eye on long-term interest rate developments. The MOF reiterated its view that it has confidence in USD and to maintain its policy of investing in US Treasury securities. There was no need for Japan to create a sovereign wealth fund (SWF) to manage its forex reserves. Not planning to ask US to issue Yen-denominated debt. Lastly he declined to comment on currency intervention || Polish Fin Min Rostowski commented that he sought 2010 budget deficit to be under PLN27B || German ZEW Chief Franz: Hopes Germany's economy would rebound in 2010, and commented that there was little chance for growth in 2009 || India Plan Panel Chief commented that the Gov't was concerned over delayed monsoon rains and hoped it would recovers later in month || BoE's Nominee Posen commented that Inflation targeting did not pose stability problem and that the UK policy action was broadly correct. Effects of Quantitative easing (QE) are unpredictable, was the right policy to undertake. He added that he would be surprised if economy was not growing by 2010 but recoveries are rarely smooth. || ZEW Economists noted that the risks for the future remain centered on household and business lending levels . It noted that the stabilization of ZEW index confirmed view that German economy to contract by 6% in 2009.

- In Currencies: The recent spat of risk appetite continued into the European session for a second day, which contributed to the soft tone in both the USD and JPY pairs. EUR/USD probed into the 1.40 neighborhood while the USD/JPY moved back above the 93 level. The weaker than expected German ZEW survey capped the recent euphoria over the green shoot scenario. The Euro-Zone Industrial Production data registered its first MoM increase since last Aug providing additional hope that economic activity was starting to bottom out.

- The commodity currencies were firmer as oil and gold held onto gains throughout the European morning. AUD/USD approached the 0.79 handle while USD/CAD dipped back below the 1.15 handle.

- In Energy/commodities: China's installed wind power capacity expected to reach 35GW by 2010, up from 12GW seen at 2008 year-end || South African gold companies to meet with union officials on Tuesday, July 21st. Gold companies to increase entry level pay to ZAR4K per month and raise other wages by 8.5%. The unions reportedly have rejected this latest offer. ||

- In Fixed Income Supply: With a risk rally gathering steam ahead of Goldman's Q2 earnings report, Government bonds have slumped this morning in
Europe . Bear steepening is present in both Bunds and Treasuries with the UK yield curve a touch flatter. Significantly weaker than expected ZEW Surveys as well as deflationary data out of the UK provided bond bulls little relief and US and German yields are moving back towards last weeks pre auction rally levels. The 10y note is yielding 3.38% whilst the 10y Bund is yielding 3.325% . Gilts stand out as the exception with the 10y Gilt yielding 3.74%, up over 5bps on the week, and BoE' nominee Posen noted that in his view, market reaction to last weeks decision not to extend QE was overdone. Three month Euribor fixed at another record low of 0.99%, whilst traders noted that overnight borrowing from the ECB's marginal lending facility spiked to €4.65B from €135M on Friday.

*** NOTES ***

- The Far East session provided some optimism over the green shoot theory. However,
Europe showed some cracks remain. German ZEW survey highlighted that recovery would be a bumpy road

- Australian business employment index jumped record 18 points to -7. Business confidence registered its first positive reading since Dec 2007 and business conditions level at highest level in 9 months.

Singapore raises its 2009 GDP forecast from -9% to 6% range to -6 to -4%. Q2 GDP soars +20.4% q/q v of +16.4%e.

- UK RICS house price highest since Sep 07. Price expected turns positive for first time since May 07.

- European Monster Employment Index dropped to 102 in June

from 104 in May.

US Government ponders foreclosure relief for unemployed homeowners unable to make payments.

- Goldman [GS] expected to report before the NY opening bell (around 8:30am ET likely)

***Looking Ahead***earning season moves into first gear; US retail sales data

- 8:00 (BR) Brazil May Retail Sales M/M: 0.6%e v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 2.5%e v 6.9% prior

- 8:00 (PD) Polish June CPI M/M: 0.1%e v 0.5% prior, Y/Y: 3.6%e v 3.6% prior

- 8:00 (PD) Polish May Money Supply M3 M/M: 0.8%e v 0.9% prior

- 8:00 (PD) Polish May Current Account: €6Me v €171M prior; Trade Balance: -€100Me v €28M prior

- 8:30 (CA) Canadian New Motor Vehicle Sales M/M: 1.0%e v 0.0% prior

- 8:30 (US) Producer Price Index M/M: 0.9%e v 0.2% prior, Y/Y: -5.2%e v -5.0% prior

- 8:30 (US) PPI Ex Food & Energy M/M: 0.1%e v -0.1% prior, Y/Y: 2.9%e v 3.0% prior

- 8:30 (US) June Advance Retail Sales: 0.4%e v 0.5% prior

- 8:30 (US) June Retail Sales Less Autos: 0.5%e v 0.5% prior

- 10:00 (US) July IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism: 49e v 50.8 prior

- 10:00 (US) May Business Inventories: -0.8% e v -1.1% prior

- 11:00 (US) Fed ( May 2011 - Apr 2012) Coupon Purchase


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