Tuesday July 14, 2009 - 12:57:34 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day : 14-Jul-2009 - 1255 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.0848/51...Range Trading
R: 1.0900 / 1.0961-80 / 1.1025-50
S: 1.0824 / 1.0787 / 1.0726
Dollar-Swiss has traded in a very narrow range of 1.0806-1.0862 and is currently testing 200-MA Support (1.0824) on 4 hourly. If the Support breaks the pair may see a fall towards 1.0787 trendline (formed by joining lows at 1.0632 on 24-Jun-09 and at 1.0754 on 09-Jul-09) Support on 4 hr charts and further fall may lead the pair towards medium term channel Support ranged beetween 1.0650-1.1050. Else, the pair may rise up towards 1.0890 trendline (formed by joining high at 1.1024 on 24-Jun-09 and at 1.0960 on 06-Jul-09) Resistance on 4 hr chart and if this Resistance breaks, the pair may continue its upmove towards medium term channel Resistance which is at 1.1050. Projected max high for the day is 1.0938.
GBP-USD @ 1.6301/04...Resistance region 1.6335-57
R: 1.6335-57 / 1.6466
S: 1.6236 / 1.6206 / 1.6100
Cable has risen from 55-MA (1.6233) Support on 4 hr chart and is now testing the 21-DMA. If this Resistance holds, the pair may be pressured lower towards 55-MA Support once again and further towards medium term channel Support (the range for the channel being 1.6050-1.6850). Else, A break above may see the pair rise up towards the medium term channel Resistance over the period of next few days. The Projected Max high for the Day is at 1.6466.
AUD-USD @ 0.7887/89...21-DMA Resistance
R: 0.7949 / 0.7986 / 0.8100
S: 0.7878 / 0.7808 / 0.7700
Aussie had risen past 55-MA (0.7878) Resistance on 4 hr chart during the day and has come off since then and is likely to test the 21-DMA at 0.7949. Inability to rise past this Resistance might see this pair come down once again towards 0.7700. This being an important Support may hold. The importance is lent by the fact that it is the lower end of the medium term channel in which the pair has been oscillating. A rise beyond this Resistance might see it move towards 0.8100 (the upper end of the medium term channel).
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