Wednesday July 15, 2009 - 12:14:47 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day : 15-Jul-2009 - 1212 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.0774/77...May dip towards 1.0680
R: 1.0850 / 1.0920-39 / 1.0977
S: 1.0700-0680 / 1.0600
Dollar-Swiss has fallen sharply during the day and even lower than the Projected Max Low for the day mentioned in the morning. Having broken below the short term range of 1.0789-1.0920, a further fall towards 1.0650 could be in the offing.
Medium term range for the pair (1.0680-1.1050) that we have been mentioning over the last several days looks good to hold. And till this holds, one may trade this range. A break of this range would be preferred on the downside targetting 1.06.
GBP-USD @ 1.6415/17...May rise towards the upper end of the channel
R: 1.6456 / 1.6501 / 1.6600
S: 1.6382 / 1.6333 / 1.6228
Cable has broken the 21-DMA (1.6358) Resistance and has risen significantly from there. If the bullish run continues, the pair may see a rise towards medium term channel Resistance (the range for the channel being 1.6050-1.6850) after breaking Resistance at 1.6501 (Projected Max high for the day). As of now, A pull back towards 21-DMA (1.6358) Resistance-turned-Support is expected which may extend up to 55-MA (1.6228) Support on 4H chart before further upside movement.
AUD-USD @ 0.8019/23...21-DMA Resistance-turned-Support
R: 0.8029 / 0.8100
S: 0.7982 / 0.7948 / 0.7831-45
Aussie has broken 200-MA (0.7982) Resistance on 4H chart and a comprehensive rise from hereon may next target 0.8100 (being the medium term channel Resistance the range for which is 0.7700-0.8130 over the next few days. Else, If the pair dips below 0.7982, it may test 100-MA (0.7948) Support and a further fall may take the pair towards 55-DMA (0.7845). We are expecting that Support at 0.7982 may hold and the pair continue its upside move towards medium term channel Resistance. Projected Max high for the day is 0.8029.
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