User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday January 27, 2005 - 14:47:23 GMT
INVESTICA Ltd - www.investica.co.uk

Share This Story:
| | Email

Yuan is the wrong target

Yuan is the wrong target

Overall, there is a 10% chance that the Chinese will announce a yuan revaluation at, or soon after, the G7 meetings. It is much more likely that there will be a medium-term commitment to currency-market and wider market liberalisation.

The markets are likely to remain in uneasy equilibrium on such a policy with further Asian dollar accumulation. The real issue is that the US policies should be the major focus rather than the yuan. The underlying market stresses will continue to build unless the US imbalances narrow and there will be an increasing risk that the dollar will again bear the brunt of market fears later in 2005.

There is a 10-20% chance of a major political row over US deficits and policies at the G7 meetings. In this case, the US dollar and Wall Street would be vulnerable to shorter-term downward pressure.

No need for panic

The February 4-5th G7 gathering has been a major currency-market focus over the past few weeks. There are certainly important issues that need to be tackled, although the economic trends, generally, have actually been benign. The governments can still be fairly relaxed over the near-term global economic outlook. Growth rates are firm in the US and UK while Japan and the Euro-zone are at least not in recession even if growth rates are uninspiring.

Despite the currency-market focus and dollar weakness, the financial markets in have not given major cause for alarm. Bond yields have been stable and equity markets remain comfortably above the levels seen in 2003 when solvency issues were a serious concern. There has also been no obvious evidence of financial-market stresses with emerging-market yield spreads narrowing sharply over the past year.

G7 will push for market forces

Currencies are important, not least because the markets are reflecting the underlying global-economy stresses. The widening US current account deficit and Asian resistance to currency gains is resulting in a huge build-up in dollars held in Asia which is likely to be unsustainable in the medium term. The G7 focus will be on the Chinese yuan and the potential for a revaluation.

Chinese officials have stated that they need more time before considering a more liberalised exchange rate system, although they have also stated that there will be in-depth discussions over the issues. The US, in particular, will press for Asian rates to be set by the markets and Europe also wants Asia to take a greater share of currency appreciation. Without a yuan policy shift there will be more general resistance to appreciation throughout Asia.

No sense in yuan float

Any moves to free the yuan would also require greater liberalisation in the banking sector and capital account which would unleash powerful and unpredictable forces on the Chinese economy. Overall, it is much more important for the world economy that China manages a successful and gradual opening up of the capital account and strengthens the banking sector rather than lets the yuan suddenly float.

There is certainly a case for a stronger yuan, although a one-off revaluation, even in the region of 20%, would not have a major impact on the US trade deficit. Given the vast US dollar reserve holdings there would also be a steep Chinese cost due to a devaluation of dollar reserve assets. Revaluation could also lead to further speculative capital inflows into China. There is a strong case for switching the yuan to a trade-weighted basket within a narrow trading band. The yuan would be able to adjust in the event of a further dollar decline and there would also be a mechanism for allowing a gradual real appreciation of the yuan over the next few years as the band could be widened.

Beware US/Europe tensions

From a global perspective, it is also important to promote gradual policy adjustment as rapid adjustment would lead to a high risk of global recession given the extent of imbalances. The US administration would be much better employed tacking the underlying causes of the US trade deficit, namely a shortfall in domestic savings. A gradual increase in the savings rate would ease the US deficits without the need for a sharp dollar decline.

Europe would also be better off looking at ways to boost European employment levels given that German unemployment is liable to hit 5mn this year. Strong domestic demand in Europe would ease the US burden of providing global growth leadership and help the US trade adjustment process.

The US and Europe will push the case for action outside their region, but will be less willing to take domestic responsibility and this could easily lead to increased tensions between the two sides. For the economic historians, it is interesting and worrying to note that these are precisely the same argument that prevailed in 1987 before the Wall Street crash.

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 18 December 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Wed --15:30-- US- EIA Crude

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105