I cringe every time I hear
uber-capitalists that permeate the airwaves marveling at Chinaâ€™s economy and successes in averting an economic
meltdown that has hit much of the rest of the world. China, like Japan in the late 1980â€™s, is some sort of miracle.
When capitalism is working China is the best at the game, selling cheaply
manufactured goods to the rest of the world while modernizing the domestic
economy with the proceeds. When capitalism is not working like in the
last 20 months, China is the best at command economics â€“ efficiently spending government
treasure to produce a domestic demand-led economy to offset the export-led
economyâ€™s collapse. China, we are to told to believe, is far better at getting
money to shovel ready projects than the US, UK or Germany where governments have none of the insights and
efficiencies that the Chinese Communist Party and government bureaucracy has at
its disposal. After all the CCCP has a long history of efficiency in
Sense any sarcasm?
Well if you donâ€™t than I stink at getting my message across. China published new money supply data today for the month
of June and it surged 28.5% y/y (M2) up from 25.7% in May while bank lending
soared with yuan loans up 34.5% y/y to record level and up from 30.6% in
May. Getting an auto loan in China today is about as hard as it was to get a mortgage
in the US without any proof of income or employment in
2006. If China has any record on bank lending it is not a pretty one. The government
can easily make banks lend and people seem willing to borrow but getting paid
back is something that is not imbedded in the culture nor is credit
Also China reported Q2 foreign reserves (FX) and it surged
$177.9bln in the month to $2.13trln compared to $7.7bln increase in Q1.
Keep in mind this comes at a time when trade is under severe stress suggesting
capital inflows are running full blast into China â€“ officials are absorbing foreign currency from
speculators eager to buy Chinese assets â€“ the government calls this hot
money. Even in Hong
Kong the real estate market
is starting to go up again (never really went down).
Chinaâ€™s GDP for Q2 is out Thursday (later tonight for those of us in the US east coast) and is expected to show 7.5% y/y growth
up from 6.1% in Q1 and the government has all but promised an 8% rate of growth
If this were happening in
the US, the IMF would be all over it crying foul and one can only imagine what
airwaves would be filled with â€“ hyperinflation is around the cornerâ€¦already on
this track until US June payrolls silenced this chant.
Even the PBOC seems to be
increasingly uncomfortable with the money awash in the banking system and
unlike the rest of the world being lent by banks to the public (households and
firms). In recent weeks PBOC officials have been speaking publicly about
inflation risks ahead and the need to move early to avoid spike in the price
level. Earlier today the PBOC announced to a handful of Chinese banks
that they would have to buy CNY100bln ($15bln) in special bills in September to
reduce amount of funds banks have to lend ahead. While as a share of
money in circulation this is a drop in the bucket, but symbolically it is
significant as it is the first sign the authorities are considering taking the
jiu bowl away.
Meanwhile the domestic
political problems plaguing Chinaâ€™s leadership is another source of strain on the
government and may prolong any reasonable attempt to rein in the money supply
(when Hu Jintao left G8 early to return to address unrest in northwest Chinaâ€™s Muslim minority region says it all). China also recently cancelled a shipment of coal from Australia when the ship was in the South China Seaâ€¦very unfriendly gesture and a slap in the face of
contract law. Could it be that the new normal for the world also implies
a new normal for China and sustaining past rates of growth and investment are no longer
realistic without causing huge distortions like an exploding money supply and
giant sucking sound from massive foreign (speculative) capital inflows?
China is decoupledâ€¦yes hearing that one once again.
If the world is depending on
a China-led recovery to compensate for the anemic rebounds in developed
economies like in the US and Europe, then it will be one disappointing outcome as China could well prove as inept at command economics as it
has throughout its post-1949 history. Let 100 Flowers (Green Shoots)
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.