- In equities news overnight: -In European Equities: Following Wednesday's significant equity gains, markets in Europe opened on a muted note with mixed trading ranges above and below the unchanged line. This subdued opening followed patterns seen in Asian trading sessions but masked the significant flow of corporate and government data. Earnings included major Pharma Novartis [NOVN.SZ], fertilizer producer Yara [YAR.NO], liquor maker Remy Cointerau [RCO.FR] and mobile phone JV SonyEricsson. In on-going saga's, Rio Tinto [RIO.UK] is reportedly to have withdrawn its entire iron ore and steel market research staff from mainland China, while Porsche [PAH3.GE] has stated that no final strategy agreement has been reached between Piech family and the company, Lufthansa [LHA.GE] stated that no new arrangements have been offered regarding Austrian Air buy. After a mixed open, equities sharply rallied on little specific corporate or data news at 3:15EST, this enthusiasm waxed and markets retested the unchanged line by 3:45EST in choppy trading. Italian trade balance, coming in at a pos â‚¬1.18B figure sent equity markets, specifically the MIB, sharply lower as internal figures showed that both exports and imports both fell sharply m/m and y/y. Equities printed their session lows following this data but soon showed signs of recovering. Bourses recovered to the unchanged mark and traded in a tight range for the remainder of the 4:00EST hr. By 5:00EST markets were negative across the board with oil/gas and utility sectors leading lagers as oil moved lower and threatened to break south of $61/share. Trading volume remained in-line with expected summer lows with the CAC even slightly trading above its moving average. Markets continue to eye corporate earnings, most notably Nokia [NOK1V.FH] and the financial giant JP Morgan [JPM] before the NY open.
- Speakers: BoE's Barker commented that she expected the impact from Â£125B Quantitative Easing measures to be felt more powerfully in 2010. She conceded that eEconomic conditions were stabilizing and that growth should return late this year. || Polish Central Banker Noga reiterated his view that interest rates cannot be cut any further || Riksbank's Ingves comments about the July 2nd interest rate cut in Sweden. He noted that the 25bps cut to 0.25% was appropriate. Ingves also noted that the central bank could take further special measures if necessary. He noted that its labor market continued to worsen at a rapid rate and that the global economic recovery could take time to unfold. || Japan Opposition DPJ lawmaker commented that the Government should not intervene in currency markets unless moves are 'abnormal'. He noted that there should be no change composition of currency reserves required as its confidence in USD remains high
- In Currencies: The session was marked by quiet consolidation for the USD against the major European pairs. The EUR/USD probed around the 1.4070 level for the majority of the morning.
The JPY was broadly firmer on some risk aversion concerns. Chatter continued to circulated that lender CIT will file for bankruptcy and aa RealtyTrac report showed a new record gains in U.S. foreclosures as the effect of job losses impact consumers ability to pay. USD/JPY back below the 93.70 level, while EUR/JPY slipped over a 100 pips to test 131.70 area.
- In Energy/commodities: Fitch: Global oil refining confronts substantial challenges. The rating agency projects a substantial weakening in funds from operations (FFO) and the credit metrics of refining companies in 2009 and 2010, driven by lower refinery utilization rates and weaker refining margins || EU Commission noted that it would declare gas emergency if it loses 10% of gas imports. The commission noted that EU states must prepare gas security risk assessments by Sept 2010
- In Fixed Income Supply: The potential demise of CIT has facilitated a bid into Treasury markets in overnight trade, bringing yields back from their highest levels of the month. Nonetheless, with the 2y Note back below 1.00%, better buying in the short end has led to further steepening of the yield curve with 2s10 above 260bps for the first time since early May. It's a different story in Europe, where prices are modestly lower after a deluge of supply was reasonably well recieved. France sold â‚¬7.5B in BTANs, Spain sold â‚¬2.4B in 15y Bono's - both towards the high end of expectations in terms of size, whilst the UK sold Â£1.25B in 23yr index linked Gilts in a mini tender, with no hiccups to report.
*** NOTES *** All eyes on JPM earnings before the bellâ€¦ IBM and GOOG after the close. BAC and C tomorrow.- CIT readies for bankruptcy despite the $2.3B in TARP investment
- Fitch lowers New Zealand's sovereign outlook to negative from Positive; rating affirmed at AA+
- BoJ raises its economic outlook for the third straight month. Economy likely to pick up over time.
- Singapore Central Bank: Despite sharp rebound in Q2, economy likely to see slow and uneven growth
.- Realtytrac: Q2 foreclosures at record highs with unemployment cited as the force behind foreclosures. 2009 filings seen at record 4M.
- UAE central bank to hold meeting with regional banks on Saudi exposure.
- China: Economic recovery is intensifying but remains below potential. GDP +7.9% on back of credit boom.
- 8:00 (PD) Polish June Avg Gross Wages M/M: 3.0%e v -3.1% prior, Y/Y: 2.9% e v 3.8% prior
- 8:00 (PD) Polish June Employment M/M: -0.2%e v -0.3% prior, Y/Y: -1.9%e v -1.7% prior
- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims W/E July 11th: 553Ke v 565K prior
- 8:30 (US) May Net Long-term TIC Flows $16.5B e v $11.2B prior
- 8:30 (US) May Total Net TIC Flows -$11.2B e v -$53.2B prior
- 8:30 (US) July Philadelphia Fed. -4.8 e v -2.2 prior
- 11:00 (US) Fed to conduct outright TIPS purchase
- 12:00 (TU) Turkish Base Rate Decision: 8.25%e v 8.75% prior
- 13:00 (US) July NAHB Housing Market Index 16 e v 15 prior
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
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POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
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