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Forex Blog - European Market Update: Traders ponder if key earnings from several US financials will take markets off its 'sugar highs'

Today 05:54am EST/09:54am GMT

European Market Update: Traders ponder if key earnings from several US financials will take markets off its 'sugar highs'



- (CH) China Jun Wholesale Prices Y/Y: -8.0% v -7.6% prior

- (FI) Finland Jun PPI M/M: 0.4% v -0.4% prior; Y/Y: -8.4% v -8.1% prior

- (NO) Norwegian Q2 Existing Homes Q/Q % v 4.1% prior

- (IT) Italian May Industrial Orders M/M: 0.4% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: -31.0% v -32.2% prior

- (IT) Italian May Industrial Sales M/M: -1.1% v -0.1% prior; Y/Y: -22.8% v -22.2% prior

- (EU) Euro-zone May Euro-Zone Trade Balance: €1.9B v €0.0B; Trade Balance SA: €0.8B v €0.8Be

- (EU) Euro-zone May Construction Output SA M/M: -2.0% v 0.4% prior, Y/Y: -8.0% v -5.0% prior

- (IT) Italian May Current Account: -€422M v -€2.7B prior

- (IR) Ireland May Retail Sales Volume M/M: % v 2.3% prior, Y/Y: % v -17.0% prior


- In equities news overnight: Equities look set seek their 5 consecutive positive session with a strong open that shook off any immediate geo-political concerns out of Indonesia (coordinated terrorist attack in Jakarta). Despite weakness in consumer names following the reports out of Carrefour [CA.FP] following yesterday's close (Carrefour is second largest global retailer behind only Wal-Mart), equity sectors all traded broadly to marginally higher. Earnings in the tech sector after the NY close from IBM [IBM] further rallied tech, software and internet names which have all traded higher since Intel's [INTC] report on Tuesday. An analyst note out of UBS raising European Investment Banks to overweight produced additional appetite for that sector which was already moving higher in anticipation of further US banking sector reports out of Citi [C] and Bank of America [BAC] in the NY pre-market. Auto and auto suppliers moved higher as Renault [RNO.FR] released some H1 unit sales data and commented on free cash flow. Equity bourses opened +0.30% and rapidly climbed to over +0.50% within the first 15min of trade. In the absence of any substantial economic data, markets hung in a tight range through the 4:00EST hr. Trading remained volatile through 4:00EST but within a tight range that was only threatened to the upside once past 4:20EST. Continual disappointment in construction figures, this time from the EU zone for May, shock markets from their range to the downside. Equities paired up to 1/3 of their gains before stabilizing after this data. Equities, however, continued to trade in positive territory maintaining their light summer volumes. Trading into 5:00EST hr clearly looked forward to earnings releases in the NY pre-market in the large cap financial [C] [BAC], industrial [GE] and consumer discretionary sector [MAT].

-In individual equities: Carrefour [CA.FR] Reportd H1 Rev €46.2BB above estimates of €42.4B. . CFO: Reaffirmed second half outlook with profits seen in range €1.7B-1.8B compared €1.5B consensus. Food price deflation would hurt its gross margins. || Swedbank [SWEDA.SW] Reported Q2 Net Loss SEK2.01B below estimates of a Loss SEK1.4B expected. Rev SEK9.23B versus SEK9.4Be. Net Interest Income SEK5.24B v SEK5.7Be, Q2 Loan Losses SEK6.7B v SEK5.2Be. Tier 1 Capital Ratio: 11.3% v 10.8% q/q, States that Q2 was marred by continued uncertainty over economic situation, expects loan losses to continue to rise. Expects 3,600 fewer employees by 2010 (about 21% of global workforce). Capacity adjustments affecting Baltic region, to review all commitments in Baltic's and
Ukraine in H2. Recorded SEK4B in loan losses in Baltic region during Q2, recorded SEK2B in loan losses in Ukraine during Q2. || BA [BAY.UK] Guided Q1 Op Loss £100M worse than the Loss £22M expected and Rev £1.98B slight below expectations of £2.03Be; Announced £300M (approx 20% of market cap) debt issuance convertible into 15-20% of issued ordinary share capital. Securities will be senior unsecured convertible bonds due in 2014 and are expected to carry a coupon of between 5.50% and 6.25% per annum payable semi-annually. || ArcelorMittal [MT.NV] Reportedly the company received permission from lenders to ease loan covenants. Reminder: On July 8 Reportedly in talks with lenders for a net-debt-to-EBITDA covenant waiver for its loan facilities - unconfirmed report. Sources say a waiver would allow MT greater flexibility if trading conditions deteriorate further. The covenant currently allows net-debt-to-EBITDA ratio no greater than 3.5 times. || Cable and Wireless [CW.UK] Provided interim statement: Reaffirmed FY10 EBITDA Guidance £1.03B better than the £983M expected ( as given 21 May). Outlook for capital expenditure remains at approximately £477M and for cash exceptional approximately £137M. || Casino [CO.FR]: Reported Q2 Rev €6.82B compared to €6.69 y/y; 1H Rev €13.45B v €13.81B y/y. Reiterates FY09 operating earnings forecast. Confirms plans to sell €1B in assets by end of FY. Targeting net debt to earnings level of 2.2x by end of 2010. || Aeroport de Paris [ADP.FR]: Update: June traffic -5.7% y/y (7.4M passengers). 2009 YTD traffic -3.7% y/y. || Technip [TEC.FR] Awarded Two Subsea Contracts for the Caesar/Tonga Field in the Gulf of Mexico. || Renault [RNO.FR] Reports H1 Vehicle Sales -16.5% y/y (sold 1.1M units). Global market share remains steady at 3.7% in H1. Have achieved positive cash flow in H1. || Metro [MEO.GE] German Cash & Carry unit to cut 1,340 positions (less than 1% of workforce). Job cuts to be over a 42 month period. Savings seen around €150M. || Lanxess [LXS.GE] CFO: Maintaining its Q2 targets; weak demand could persisit into 2010 - Swiss press. || Carl Zeiss [AFX.GE] Expects full-year rev growth of at least 5%, continue to see positive market outlook. || OMV [OMV.AS] Reports Q2 Oil and Gas Production 315K bpd v 308K bpd q/q; Refining sales 5.34M tons. Q2 indicator refining margin $1.64/bbl v $4.21/bbl q/q. - Q2 natural gas sales 2.08B meters v 4.52B q/q. || Husqvarna [HUSQB.SW] Reports Q2 Op Profit SEK1.12B v SEK1.09Be, Rev SEK11.5B v SEK11.6Be. Saw demand in Q2 down substantially. Operations to reduce costs have been making a gradual effect. ||

Rautaruukki [RTRKS.FH] Reports Q2 Op Loss €117M v €74Me, Rev €438M v €544Me. Gearing ratio was 22.9% v 5.8% y/y. || Dexia [DEXB.BE] Reportedly to sell ¥800B in Samurai bonds (60% of market cap). ||

- Speakers: Japanese Vice Fin Min Tamaki commented that there was no alternatives available to dollar at this time and that the USD to remain key currency.
Japan would support dollar-centered global financial system He reiterated the G7 view that excessive currency moves are not desirable. He would not comment on currency levels but stated that MOF would consider intervention if FX moves were too rapid. MOF to consider various factors based on economic conditions at a given time" to determine if the government needs to sell or buy the yen to influence exchange rates. Overall he reiterated the G7 view that markets should determine the level of currency crosses ||BOE's bean reiterated the view that an economic recovery could start by end of 2009 but it would take some time for the economy to recover from the recession || German Econ Min Guttemburg stated that there are signs of significant evidence that economic conditions stabilized in Q2. Outlook for German exports has improved The minister saw increasing effects of stimulus on German economy. Consumption to continue supporting the economy. Guttemburg noted that labor markets to worsen over coming months || US Treasury Sec Geithner stated that he wasmore optimistic on the US economy than in previous quarter. He reiterated the administration view that it did not believe US deficit would affect investor confidence. The USD to remain principal reserve currency. He did note that theUS must increase its savings levels. Lastly he again stated that now was not the time for a second US stimulus package.

- In Currencies: The USD encountered some benefit as a safe haven theme was been rekindled following bombings at
Jakarta hotels. As the morning wore on dealers noted that the bombings were seen as a local event . The lingering concerns about the consequences of U.S. lender CIT also provided a bit of apprehension. Overall market impetus still lacking as the NY morning approaches. The GBP was broadly softer following the yesterday's IMF report in which its outlook on the UK was deemed "highly uncertain," and that the UK may need to further bolster its financial system. The IMF stated that the UK needed a credible plan for its public finances. GBP/USD off 100 pips from its Asian open to test below the 1.6300 level. EUR/GBP higher by 35 pips at 0.8645.

- The bombings at the Marriott and Ritz Carlton in
Indonesia helped contribute to pressure on JPY-related crosses. The JPY off its best levels as dealers viewed the attack as a "local event".

- In Energy/commodities: China Official June Electricity Output came in at 310.0B kwh versus 283.9B kwh m/m || China National Bureau of Statistics published its June Commodity Output with Crude oil Output at 31.9M tons, +6% y/y; Gasoline Output at 5.9M tons,+14% y/y; Diesel Output 11.9M tons: +3% y/y

- In Fixed Income Supply: Government bonds have managed to rally modestly in tandem with equities in all major markets this morning, and given UK and Us yield curves have steepened on better buying of short end issues it seems bond markets may be unconvinced that encouraging earnings out of Goldman and JPM are indicative of a broader economic recovery. Alternative today's price action offers a solid argument that June's aggressive selling was overdone. The picture will be clearer later today and ahead of corporate earnings volumes are thin, with Treasuries slightly under performing on Bunds and Gilts on a cross market basis. Three month Euribor reset at another low of 0.95%

- Geo-political: Explosions at two
Jakarta hotels killed at least nine people.

*** NOTES ***

- Safe haven concerns move back into radar following the
Indonesia hotel attacks.

- Singapore June exports decline by 5.2% m/m versus +1.3%e. Exports to China -9.0% y/y.

China's MoF failed to sell the entire amount of 6-month bills in auction

- US Commerce Secretary Locke: US wants to see "freely floating" Chinese exchange rate.

- Economist Roubini stated that his earlier remarks about the recession ending this year were taken out of context; not predicting economic growth this year; says his comments today were no different from his prior commentary

***Looking Ahead***

- 7:00 (BR) Brazil Jul FGV Inflation IGP-10 M/M: -0.34% e v -0.03% prior

- 7:00 (CA) Canadian Jun Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.3%e v 0.7% prior, Y/Y: -0.3% e v 0.1% prior

- 7:00 (CA) Canadian Jun Bank Canada CPI Core M/M: 0.0%e v 0.4% prior, Y/Y: 1.9%e v 2.0% prior

- 8:00 (PD) Poland Jun Producer Prices M/M: 0.0%e v -0.3% prior, Y/Y: 3.3%e v 3.7% prior

- 8:00 (PD) Poland Jun Sold Industrial Output M/M: 3.0% e v -1.8% prior, Y/Y: -6.5% e v -5.2% prior

- 8:30 (CA) Canadian Jun Leading Indicators M/M: 0.10% e v -0.10% prior

- 8:30 (US) Jun Housing Starts: 530Ke v 532K prior

- 8:30 (US) Jun Building Permits: 524Ke v 518K prior

- 9:00 (BE) Belgian Jul Consumer Confidence: No expectations v -18 prior

- 10:00 (MX) Mexican Overnight Rate: 4.5% e v 4.75% prior


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