User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday January 27, 2005 - 22:27:23 GMT -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Dollar Rallies Modestly On Better US Economic Data

DailyFX Forex Fundamentals 01-27-05

By Kathy Lien, Chief Strategist of

· Dollar Rallies Modestly On Better US Economic Data
· Euro Weakens As Outlook Dismal For German Labor Market
· Pound Expected To Test 1.90


Better US economic data only helped the dollar rally modestly against the euro. Although the pair continues to range trade, speculation that next week’s German unemployment report could be exceptionally weak has also dampened prospects for the euro. According to Die Welt newspaper, unemployment is expected to increase by 490,000 to a record high of 4.96 million. The sharp rise is primarily expected to come from changes in the labor market calculation. Schroeder is now including former recipients of social-welfare benefits into the jobless register. Leaks frequently happen with the German labor market report and have historically proven to be fairly accurate. Ahead of tomorrow’s US GDP report, this is all the market really has to work off of today. Overall though, we continue to point to broader factors that should lead to the dollar’s demise over the medium term. We have previously raised the red flags on the trend of central bank reserve diversification. Yesterday, the director of China’s state-owned National Economic Research Institute said that "The real issue for China is how to change the regime from a U.S. dollar pegging to a more flexibly managed floating system with a more diversified reference to a basket consisting of say euros, yen, dollars." As one of the largest owners of US Treasuries, a move to a managed float based upon a basket of currencies would certainly be positive for the euro and negative for the US dollar as well as the US bond market.


The dollar is stronger today as US economic data provided cause for optimism. Durable goods orders increased 0.6% during the month of December. Although this was slightly less than expected, there was also a strong upward revision to the previous month’s report from 1.4% to 1.8%. Orders less transportation also rose strongly, rising 2.1% compared to expectations for a 1.3% rise. Labor market data was also encouraging. Jobless claims came in much better than expected for the second consecutive week, rising 325,000 over the past week. The help wanted index edged higher from 36 to 38. This data is consistent with job growth of 150,000 or more. Meanwhile, conflicting comments about China continue to come across the wires. US Treasury Secretary Snow urged China to be more “flexible” with their exchange rate and reiterated the US’ strong dollar policy. China’s Central Bank Adviser Yu on the other hand told the US that they should fix their own finances and not put pressure on China. The battle of words continues to heat up with neither side budging and we expect this to be the theme at next weekend’s G7 meeting - that is, talks that lead nowhere about the Renminbi.


The British pound rallied for the second consecutive day despite a dive in the CBI Quarterly Industrial Trends survey. The index fell from –4 to –13 in January, which is the first decline in 15 months. This indicates that the manufacturing sector is still struggling. The high price of raw material such as oil has crimped profitability. The latest report reflects the divergence between the performance in the UK’s service and manufacturing sectors. Better than expected fourth quarter GDP growth was primarily driven by strength in the service sector. The FXCM Speculative Sentiment Index released earlier this morning can help to explain today’s price action. The ratio of longs to shorts in the GBPUSD is -1.23, which is within the extreme +/- 3 range. However, for the first time in 5 weeks, positions have flipped from net longs to net shorts. Open interest increased 23%, with shorts rising 67% and longs falling 7%. Short positions are at their highest levels in 9 weeks, suggesting that the GBPUSD could break its recent consolidation for a move towards 1.90. The recently strong GDP report has spurred optimism in the pound, which could provide support for a move upwards.


Last night’s retail trade data for Japan came in rather weak compared to expectations. Economists expected large retailers’ sales to recover to -3.5% y/y from last month’s -5.3% y/y, but the actual data showed a change of -4.2% y/y. Retail trade was expected to show slight expansion on both m/m and y/y measures, but there were declines reported for both. This is probably what caused the yen to weaken to about 103.5 today. Once the US market opened, there was a steady appreciation and eventually, the pair dipped below 103.0 for a short time before starting its journey back up again in anticipation of data to be released later tonight. The BoJ already put a damper on the expected data in their monthly economic report saying that although they still see expansion in the country’s future, recent activities (or lack thereof) in production and IT-related goods have presented a negative blip in the growth picture. Employment data should stay constant while household spending is expected to improve slightly, but price data should be negative for the most part as the country is still unable to shake off deflation. In the BoJ’s report, there were warnings of downside risk in consumer prices due to reduced telephone and electricity charges. Industrial production in December is also expected to be quite weak, changing -1.2% m/m.


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105