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Forex Blog - European market Update: Risk appetite surges in session with equity and commodity markets firmer and USD, JPY currencies broadly weaker

Today 05:54am EST/09:54am GMT

European market Update: Risk appetite surges in session with equity and commodity markets firmer and USD, JPY currencies broadly weaker



- (GE) German Jun Producer Prices M/M: -0.1% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: -4.6% v -4.1%e

- (NV) Netherlands May Trade Balance €2.5B v €2.4B prior

- (NV) Netherlands May Consumer Confidence: -24 v -24 prior

- HK Hong Kong June Unemployment Rate SA: 5.4% v 5.4%e

- (UK) June Preliminary M4 Money Supply M/M: -0.2% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 14.2% v 14.6%e

- (UK) BoE Trends in Lending Report: Jun Mortgage Approvals 51.1K v 45.0K prior


- In equities news overnight: European equities looked eager to continue last week's strong performance following gains out of the Asian trading session. Continuing to shrug off lower top end earnings out of US giants on Friday, equity markets continue to take hope out re-hashed themes; Asian growth/recovery and USD decline against currency pairs/commodities action. In sector rotation, comments out of Morgan Stanley, raising the Euro Capital Goods sector to neutral from cautious led to some positive momentum. Earnings out of auto-supplies Continental [CON.GE] came in slightly light of expectations, but reassurances that group was firmly within the parameters of its debt covenants buoyed the equity and fellow sector names. Financials continued their upward trend with news out of Lloyd [LLOY.UK], Barclays [BARC.UK] and earnings out of Swedish lender SEB [SEBA.SW]. Reports out of German media sources over the weekend that the state was planning to offer a US-style bank bailout for needy firms added further momentum to the DAX listed sector members. Commodity gains continued to push mining and basic resource names with FTSE sector players outperforming. Equity volatility remained muted through the 3:00EST and 4:00EST hr with markets trading in a tight band while trending slightly higher. In the absence of significant data, markets floated in a range of approx +1.00% until just after 5:00EST when the DAX, CAC and FTSE all rapidly accelerated to the upside in line with US equity futures and gold futures. Market volumes remained muted with only the FTSE outperforming its average on the back of high volume in some of its banking names (Lloyds [LLOY.UK]) while the CAC and DAX sat below their moving averages.

-In individual equities: Lloyds [LLOY.UK] New accounting rules may enable firm to post H1 net profit (-£5.1Be) -Times. New accounting rules will enable firm to write-off billions real-estate sub prime investments. Article states that bad debt provisions may rise to as much as £13B. Rond Sandler, exec at nationalized Northern Rock, in consideration for Chairman role at Lloyd's -Telegraph. Article notes that Sandler has been shortlisted to group of 4 candidates. || SEB Bank [SEBA.SW] Reports Q2 Net Loss SEK193M v Net Profit SEK1Be, Rev SEK13.2B v SEK11.6Be. Net Interest Income SEK5.4B v SEK5.6Be, Tier 1 Capital Ratio 13.1% v 11.10% q/q, Q2 Loan Losses SEK3.6B v SEK448M y/y, Credit Loss Provisions SEK5.95B v SEK812M y/y. Long term positive view of Baltic region remains unchanged, remain committed to operations in the region. || GlaxoSmithKline [GSK.UK] In talks to supply 30 additional countries; Sales of anti-flu vaccines may reach £1.3B by 2010 -Telegraph. Daily Mail has reported that firm is in talks with 30 further governments for additional Swine Flu vaccines. || Continental [CON.GE] Reports Q2 EBIT €38.8M v €40.8Me, Rev €4.76B v €5Be. H1 Adj EBIT €248.7M, Rev €9B v €9.5Be, H2 and beyond will remain 'big challenge' for supplier industry. Liquidity reserves at end of June remained at 'solid-level'. Continue to see tight financing situation as major hurdle in H2. Complying with financial covenants, ||
Salzgitter [SZG.GE] CEO: Expects loss in Q2 v Net €22.9Me; does not plan on further job cuts -Euro Magazine. Reportedly looking to make acquisitions outside core markets. Seeking to raise prices for flat steel products in October. || Deutsche Post World [DPW.GE] Mail unit may report FY09 profits ahead of forecasts at €1.38B (€1.1Be) -Die Welt. Figure is lower y/y but ahead of the prior guidance given by firm. || Lufthansa [LHA.GE] Update: Looking to sell loss making BMI Airlines -Sueddeutsche Zeitung. || Finmeccanica [FNC.IT] DRS unit awarded $100M contract with US army. || Barclays [BARC.UK] Exec Roger Jenkins to leave firm to set up independent shop -Telegraph. Jenkins was seen as key as setting up financing package in October that allowed bank to reject govt capital offer. Was former chairman of investment banking arm for Middle East operations. || HSBC [HSBA.UK] Has reportedly shortlisted 5 firms to support bookrunning for mainland China share sale -Apple Daily. Article states that A share approval may be granted from Chinese authorities as early as the beginning of next year. || Domino [DOM.UK] Reports H1 Pretax £13.1Me, R 12.6Me, Rev €73.6M v €75.4Me, LFL sales +7.1% y/y. Operating cash flow of £11.3m (2008: £4.5m). || EAD's [EAD.FR] Reportedly Airbus SAS unit has raised cost savings goal to €300-400M -La Tribune. New target is above previous level of €200M. || GDF Suez [GSZ.FR] Reportedly has purchased 60% stake in Qatar offshore block. Purchase made from Anadarko petroleum. ||

Germany's government is considering a US style bank-rescue plan - German Press. Under the plan, the German government would become shareholders in the banks after forcing them to accept the aid. In the past, Chancellor Merkel and Finance Minister Steinbrueck have opposed such a plan. According to the article, Steinbrueck and other policymakers have raised concern that credit conditions may worsen and hurt the economic recovery. || Rhoen Klinikum [RHK.GE] Reports H1 Net €65.8M v €58.9Me, EBITA €140.5M v €133.0Me. Guides FY09 Net €130M v €125.9Me, Rev €2.3B v 2.3Be. || AB InBev [ABI.BE] Reportedly seeking to sell Tennet brand -Times. Sale part of group debt reduction operations. Tenet holds approx 60% of Scottish lager market. Price target for sale not given. || Kuehn & Nagel [KNIN.SZ] Reports H1 Net CHF258M v CHF252Me, Rev CHF8.5B v CHF8.5Be. Does not anticipate a substantial short term improvement in the global economy and markets. Will continue its focused dual strategy of disciplined cost management and market share expansion. || Roche [ROG.SZ] Phase III study shows Xeloda in combo with Oxaliplatin is effective in early colorectal cancer. ||

- Speakers: German Finance Ministry commented that its Q2 GDP might be better than expected. Indicators suggested that the German economy might be bottoming out. The MOF expected moderate inflation in coming months, but not deflation (in line with ECB view). Exports might stabilize in coming months and the labor market remained "robust". Private consumption likely to have supported economy in Q2 || German Finance Ministry denied press speculation and noted that it had no plans for mandatory recapitalization of banks. The MOF stated that it was up to banks to make use of facilities available |Polish Fin Min: Current 2009 deficit could exceed 5% of GDP level || Singapore Trade Min Lim commented that any pick up in trade would be 'bumpy' and he did not expect' V-shaped' recovery, although retrenchments eased in Q2. He noted that a gradual economic recovery was likely. Rebound in drug, electronics output might falter while the services sector to continue to 'languish'. || Polish Treasury Min Grad commented that
Poland to sell between PLN 15B to PLN20B of assets in 2010 in a press interview. || Israeli Central Bank Gov Fisher commented that have seen signs of recovery in EU and US. He also noted that the signs of recovery evident in global export market || UK Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) noted that seasonal factors might support lending volumes over the summer period

- In Currencies: risk appetite firmly underpinning sentiment as the USD and JPY currencies were under pressure against most other currencies, particularly the commodity correlating and emerging market units throughout the session. Following Wall St scoring its best week in four months and CIT reportedly cutting a deal with bondholders and avoids bankruptcy the EUR/USD pair hit fresh 6-week highs above the 1.4230 area. AUD/USD moving above the 0.81 30 level while USD/CAD moved to 1.1050 area. Commodity prices were firmer with NYMEC Aug crude up over a $1.00 to trade above the $64.50 level ahead of the NY morning. Spot gold up over 1.5% to test $950/oz.

- In Energy/commodities: Russian PM Putin stated that
Russia to apply Zero percent export duty for its Eastern Siberian oil fields. Measures to apply to 13 fields and will become effective in 2 months time and run for 9 month period || Iran's IAEA Ambassador Soltanieh stated that IAEA inspections in Iran are proceeding with no obstacles or delays

- In Fixed Income Supply: Government bonds are weaker this morning in
Europe amidst another bout of equity strength and broad based risk appetite. Gilt markets showed little reaction to an undershooting in UK money supply and "less worse" mortgage lending figures for June . The German yield curve is undergoing some bear flattening whilst steepening continues in both Gilt and Treasury markets. 2s10s in both regions sit right near their widest levels since early June at 265bps and 268bps respectively. The yield on 2y Note is back above the 1.00% level where a confluence of 50 day and 200 day moving averages currently sit. The 10y Note is yielding 3.69%, 13bps above its 50 day moving average ( the cheapest is has traded relative to that average in all of July).The 10y Gilt is yielding 3.851%, about 10bps above it 50 day moving average whilst the 10y Bund is yielding 3.46%, less than 1bps above its 50 day moving average. In corporates, the investment grade iTraxx Europe index opened 6bps lower at 102bps, its lowest level since early September 2008, in the days leading up to the collapse of Lehman.

- In the papers: German weekend press ran a story that the German government was considering a
US style bank-rescue plan. The article noted that under the plan, the German government would become shareholders in the banks after forcing them to accept the aid. German MOF declined the story

*** NOTES ***

U.S. lender CIT Group reached a tentative deal with bondholders for $3B in rescue financing

- Oil rises above $64.50 buoyed by Asian and European equity rally (Note: Japan was out on holiday

***Looking Ahead***

- 8:30 (CA) Canadian May Int'l Securities Transactions: C$7.0B e v C$9.0B prior

- 8:30 (CA) Canadian May Wholesale Sales M/M: -2.1%e v -0.6% prior

- 10:00 (US) June Leading Indicators 0.5%e v 1.2% prior

- also might see (No specific time set for release)

- (RU) Russian Jun Unemployment Rate: % v 9.8%e

- (RU) Russian Jun Real Wages Y/Y: % v -3.6%e

- (RU) Russian Jun Investment In Productive Capacity: % v -20.0%e

- (RU) Russian Jun Retail Sales (Real) M/M: v 1.0% prior, Y/Y: % v -6.4%e

- (RU) Russian Jun Disposable Income: % v -2.1%e


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