Monday July 20, 2009 - 12:41:46 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day : 20-Jul-2009 - 1233 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.0684/87...At a major Support zone
R: 1.0794-1.0809 / 1.0831 / 1.0872
S: 1.0670-54 / 1.0634 / 1.0590
Once the short-term channel support was broken at 1.0682, USD-CHF kissed the 61.8% retracement level of the rise from March 2008 low (0.9623) to November 2008 high (1.2282). The pair took support of 1.0655 and bounced back into the channel. Being close to the bottom of a ranged market, there seems to be an opportunity to buy around the Projected Max Low for the day at 1.0634. Below this we may look at the previous low of 1.0590 as an important Support.
On a bounce back, levels of 1.0726 may be seen which can lead to a rally towards 1.0794.
GBP-USD @ 1.6533/36...Targeting the upper end of the range (1.6200-1.6600)
R: 1.6566 / 1.6200 / 1.6758
S: 1.6480-6470 / 1.6394-6371 / 1.6350
Cable continued its upmove during the day and is now trading higher above 1.6500. If it continues to trade above 1.6500, we may see it rising towards 1.6600, the upper end of the range (1.6200-1.6600) in which it has been trading for some time. If the pair is to continue the range, we may see a pull back from 1.6600. However a break and further move above 1.6600 might see 1.6650-6675 on the upside.
On the downside a break below 1.6500 may pull the pair down towards 1.6400-1.6370 in the coming sessions. Support is seen at 1.6394 (21-MA on the 4-hr chart) and 1.6371 (21-DMA). A strong break below the Supports mentioned above and 1.6350 might increase the chances of a dip towards 1.6200, the lower end of the range (1.6200-1.6600).
AUD-USD @ 0.8120/25...At the end of major Resistance zone
R: 0.8134 / 0.8148-0.8157 / 0.8207
S: 0.8039-26 / 0.7962
The Aussie is still standing at the top of the Resistance zone of 0.8106-0.8116 after reversing from 0.8141 earlier today. It can be taken as a sign of weakness as the candles are formed with long upper shadows indicating selling pressure. If the Aussie gives into this pressure 0.8075 level may be seen in the US session.
If however the Aussie breaks above the zone 0.8106-0.8132, the previous highs of 0.8266 might be seen.
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