Tuesday July 21, 2009 - 11:41:46 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day : 21-Jul-2009 - 1140 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.0674/76...Biased towards Bulls
R: 1.0720-26 / 1.0770-89 / 1.0831
S: 1.0676-53 / 1.0624 / 1.0594
As expected, the pair did rise to meet its first resistance of 1.0720. It just missed the target and made a high of 1.0716, after which it returned to its support of 1.0676 which is formed by joining lows of 2nd June and 24th June on the Daily charts.
The pair is standing on the Support at 1.0676 slippage from where though unlikely, but if materialized can retest the 61.8% level (of the move of March 2008 low (0.9623) and November 2008 high (1.2282)) at 1.0648. On the upside the pair faces an intermediate Resistance at 1.0710, a break of which can lead to 1.0720-26 and 1.0770-89.
GBP-USD @ 1.6425/28...Support at 21-DMA
R: 1.6447 / 1.6502 / 1.6550-60
S: 1.6367 / 1.6335-6315 / 1.6270
Cable broke below 1.6500 and witnessed a dip towards 1.6400 during the day as expected. The pair is currently trading just above 1.6414. For now, Support is seen at 1.6367 (21-DMA). The chances of a break below this 21-DMA (1.6367) Support are high as the pair is showing a strong downward momentum. A break below the 21-DMA (1.6367) may take the pair down towards 1.6330-6300 in the coming sessions. Note that the projected Max-Low for the day is 1.6315.
However, if the 21-DMA (1.6367) Support holds, we may see a rise once again towards 1.6500-50 in the coming sessions
AUD-USD @ 0.8147/50...Trading in a Narrow Range
R: 0.8148 / 0.8176
S: 0.8102 / 0.8072-88 / 0.8054
The pair has traded in a very narrow range during the day and it stands at the same price as the morning level. The pair could barely rise above the level where we took the short limit trade, but has been very restricted in the same region â€“ neither rising nor falling. Which ever direction it takes will be strong and decisive but since the chances of rising and falling appear similar, it is a good idea to wind off the trade with a marginal profit.
As pointed out earlier a break above 0.8131 can extend gains till 0.8176-86 while a break below may touch the immediate Support of 0.8102 and go down to 0.8075-89.
AUD 10K Short at 0.8140, SL 0.8164 (Down from 0.8190), TP 0.8136 (Up from 0.8075)
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