Friday January 28, 2005 - 10:08:25 GMT
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Forex Morning Meeting - European Sesion, 28/1/2005
Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. The Crude oil is trading around the $48.6 level, slipping a little bit more and proving the $50 barrier a tough one. In the US stock markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost some ground and clsoed around 10.470, halted by the 10.500 psichological level at the moment.
Forex Technicals at a glance
Euro/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.3040 level. In the current ups and downs it was time yesterday for the single currency to move south. Though daily picture is unchanged (indeed the bull USD view is reinforced by bullish USD crosses by the moving averages in all majors), and as I have said many times before, trading is not a one-way train. Therefore, watching momentum indicators as well as trend indicators make everyone alerted either of the possible halt of the current move (for some time), or when it looks poised for a resumption. Taking a look at what moving averages say, well it looks clear that for the moment USD bull positions are favoured. However, don’t take for granted that any entry level will be valid (as many times stated), but better to look for mild to strong resistance levels in case of a move halt to enter a trade in the direction of the current short term trend (longer term (for almost 3 years now) is USD bearish).
Moving averages overview : EUR has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2525. We have a bearish cross from the 2 shorter mving averages, with the 20-day crossing down the 50-day. Therefore, and from a moving averages point of view, short positions are preferred, which should eventually yield some.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator): EUR Negative (signaled short on december 31, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2 : EUR Positive, giving some hints on the current market rangebound situation.
Gbp/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.8850 level. It is virtually unchaged with respect to yesterday’s report levels, but the pair eventually traded above the 1.89 level, and closed above its 20-day moving average. Though short view is still preferred, the 50-day moving average should serve as a good reference for any bearish-oriented trade. Indicators, however, look mildly positive to the pair, giving it the boost we’ve seen in the last sessions.
Moving averages overview : GBP has its 200-day moving average today at 1.8376. We have the 20-day moving average cross the 50-day on the down for some time now. Pair closed above the 20-day, and it is currently trading between them.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : GBP Neutral. Indicators watch-level 2: GBP Positive, showing some strength for the currency for some time now.
Usd/Chf : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.1850 level. Similar picture to the one presented for the EUR, but in this case we have the apir just amrginally above the 20-day moving average, and definitely below that key fibo level around 1.1960. Therefore, and despite its bulllish look, don’t take for granted that any entry level is good to place a trade. Moving average levels may give good support levels for now, with the 1.1650 level as key to maintain the bullish tone.
Moving averages overview : USD has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2270. The 20-day holds above the 50-day after the bullish cross a few days ago. Pair is trading above them both.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : USD Bullish (signaled long on december 30, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2: USD Negative, provising signs of exhaustion to the pair.
Eur/Gbp : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.6915 level. Definite bearish view for the pair, which broke the uptrend channel to the downside, and it is currently unable to break it back and regain momentum. What keeps me a little bit confused is the divergence between indicator watch levels 1 and 2, which show divergence between them, and the levl 2 is giving bullish signals for the pair. Only a break above the 0.6950 level would negate the bearish view and would place the pair in its channel again.
Moving averages overview : pair has its 200-day moving average at 0.6812 today. The pair is below both its 50-day moving average and its 20-day one, and they are just about to make a bearish cross.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : EUR negative (signaled short on january, 10). Indicators Wacth-level 2 : EUR positive.
Indicators watch-Level 1 : Trend indicators Direction, providing some useful investment information.
Indicators watch-Level 2 : Momentum Indicators Direction (working in pairs), providing current market sentiment for the instrument
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