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Forex Blog - European Market Update: UK retail sales beat expectations; USD and JPY maintain soft tone on continued rise in risk appetite

Today 05:52am EST/09:52am GMT

European Market Update: UK retail sales beat expectations; USD and JPY maintain soft tone on continued rise in risk appetite



- (FR) French Jul Business Confidence Indicator: 78 v 77e; Own-Company Production Outlook: -14 v -12e; Production Outlook Indicator: -40 v -38e

- (SP) Spain Jun Producer Prices M/M: 0.5% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: -5.0% v -4.7%e

- (SW) Swedish Jun Unemployment Rate: 9.8% v 10.2%e

- (DE) Danish Jul Consumer Confidence Indicator: -3.2 v -5.5 prior

- (NV) Netherlands May Consumer Spending Y/Y: -3.6% v -3.5% prior

- (IT) Italian May Retail Sales M/M: 0.0% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -2.9% v -2.0%e

- (EU) ECB Euro-Zone May Current Account SA: -€1.2B v -€5.9B prior; Current Account nsa : -€13.0B v -9.2B prior

- (PD) Polish Jun Retail Sales M/M: 2.2% v 1.5%e; Y/Y: 0.9% v 0.5%e

- (PD) Polish Jun Unemployment Rate 10.7% v 10.8%e

- (TT) Taiwan Jun Industrial Production Y/Y: -11.4% v -16.0%e

- (RU) Russian weekly Gold & Forex Reserves: $398.1B v $400.9B prior

- (UK) Retail Sales M/M: 1.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.9% v 2.1%e

- (UK) BBA Loans for House Purchase: 35.2K v 31.9K prior

- (IT) Italian Trade Balance Non EU: €155M v €555.0M prior


- In equities news overnight: Having pulled off 8 straight days of rally in Wednesday's session, European bourses opened slightly positive before slipping into the red in mixed sentiment. Negative sentiment, however, would not last and as we have seen over the past week and half, and equities once again pushed through the unchanged mark to print positive before once again spilling negative. Choppy trading defined the first 60 min of European trading as markets searched for a definitive direction. Sentiment looked to be driven by Q2 and H1 earnings, but with a markedly mixed performance, overall direction remained scarce. Primary European earnings for the session came from peripheral markets including Roche [ROG.SZ], ABB [ABBN.SZ] and Credit Suisse [CSGN.SZ] out of
Switzerland, Skanska [SKAB.SW] out of Sweden and Stora Enso [STERV.FH] out of Finland. Ahead of retail sales figures from Italy, Poland and the UK, retailers faired mixed to broadly lower. In other sector news, comments from the UK Water Regulator targeting 2015 improvements and capital projects sent that sector to the bottom of the FTSE led by United Utilities [UU.UK]. Solid Credit Suisse figures rallied the broader financial sector and it, along with basic resources were marked outperformers amongst European equities. Markets took a brief lift past 4:30EST following better than expected UK retail figures for June, but through 4:00EST and into 5:00EST both the CAC and FTSE remained in negative territory, with the DAX only marginally positive. Volumes on trading remain muted outside of some earnings based performance in specific names. As we have seen through this week, European markets look set to take their next cues from the NY pre-market as another wave of corporate earnings is seen ahead of the NY morning.

-In individual equities: Credit Suisse [CSGN.SZ] Reported Q2 Net CHF1.6B touch better than the CHF1.4Bexpected, Revenues came in at CHF8.61B and also slightly above estimates of CHF8.5B. Q2 ROE 17.5% v 22.6% q/q. Q2 Tier 1 Ratio 15.5 % v 14.1% q/q. Q2 Provision for credit losses CHF 310M v CHF183M q/q. ||Roche [ROG.SZ] Reported H1 Net CHF4.05B below CHF5.1B estimates. However, revenues were CHF24.0B just above the CHF23.6B consensus.. Full-year 2009 sales in both divisions expected to grow well ahead of market. Double-digit Core EPS growth expected in 2009 and 2010 (at constant exchange rates). Group will use strong operating free cash flow to repay net debt; expects to repay 25% of debt by end of 2010 and to return to a positive net cash position by 2015. Continuation of dividend guidance. Pharma sales grow 11% in local currencies. || ABB [ABBN.SZ] Reported Q2 Net income $675M above $611M estimates, while revenues were in line at $7.9B. Q2 orders $7.31B v $11.3B y/y. Confirmed previously announced targets for the period FY07-11. Saw growth opportunities despite difficult market. || Telnor [TEL.NO] Reported Q2 Net NOK1.38B versus NOK2.2B estimates, but revenues were NOK24.5B and roughly in line with the NOK24.8B consensus. Q2 impairment charge NOK1.97B. Guided 2009 Rev in line with 2008, "however on the negative side." Expected revenues to remain under pressure for the rest of 2009. Reaffirmed 2009 EBITDA margin target of 34%. Lowers 2009 CAPEX est to 13-15% of sales from 15-17% prior. || Skanska [SKAB.SW] Reported Q2 Net SEK1.17B better than the SEK726.3M estimate, Rev SEK35.7B in line with SEK35.5Be. Construction order booking of SEK37.6B was better than the SEK35.1B estimate. Backlog SEK114B v SEK145B y/y. During 2010 expected continued revenue declines, especially in the Nordic countries and the
Czech Republic. Have seen revenue levels decline in a number of markets. Orders in H2 2010 may show signs of recover on the back of US construction orders. || Deutsche Post World [DPW.GE] Reported Q2 Net profit €66M (after minorities) compared to an expected loss of €32M. , Rev €11.1B worse than the €11.8B expected. Guideed FY09 EBIT €1.2B compared to the 1.04Bestimate. Outlook: Business development in the second quarter confirms our view, expressed after the first quarter, that in percentage terms volume declines may have seen the bottom. Still, the Group doesn't expect a substantial recovery in world trade in coming months. || Carphone Warehouse [CPW.UK] Provided trading statement: Re-iterates financial guidance for full year. Is trading in line with expectations. Q1 Like-for-Like retail revenue growth 5.4%. Q1 TalkTalk Group revenues were stable quarter-on-quarter and down 2% y/y to £340M. Q1 Residential revenues were flat quarter-on-quarter and down 3% year-on-year at £264M. Q1Total Best Buy Europe revenues were up 6% year on year to £773M. Talk Talk Group: Broadband net adds of 47,000, Acquisition of Tiscali UK completed on 3 July 2009. Best buy Europe: Like-for-Like retail revenue growth 5.4%. || National Express [NEX.UK] The second suitor for the company could be Stagecoach - London Times, the article cites transport industry sources. || AstraZeneca [AZN.UK] To collaborate with Alcon on eye care products. Entered into a five-year collaborative research agreement with AstraZeneca for the exclusive ophthalmic discovery and potential development rights to AstraZenecas compound library. || Land Securities [LAND.UK] Raised £360M through secured bond offer. Notes held maturity date of 2027. || Unibail [UL.FR] Reported 1H Net loss €1.32B v loss €704.7Me, Net rental Income €634M v €712.1Me. || Technip [TEC.FR] Reported Q2 Net profit €116M v €92.6Me, Rev €1.73B v €1.6Be. Guides FY09 Rev €6.4B v €6.3Be. Order intake €873M v 1.15B q/q. Backlog €6.06B v €8.05B y/y. Confirmed y/y improvement in combined operating margin. || Publicis [PUB.FR] Reported H1 Net €167M v €148Me, Rev €2.2B v €2.2Be, maintains 2009 targets. Expects to outperform market in 2009 despite negative sales growth. || Mobistar [MOBB.BE] Reports Q2 Net €68.4M v €66.2Me, H1 Rev €761.6M v €752.7Me. States that results remain in line with FY09 forecasts. H1 service rev €761.6M v €745.5M y/y. Will pay extraordinary dividend of €1.65/share. || KPN [KPN.NV] Reports Q2 Net €340M v €339Me, Rev €3.41B v €3.48Be. Reaffirms FY10 EBITDA €5.5B. Lower FY10 Rev guidance to €13.6-13.8B v 14.0Be. Sees free cash flow €2.4B through 2H 2009. Maintaining dividend guidance for FY2009/10 at €0.80/share. || ING [INGA.NV] Seeking bids for European and Asian private-banking operations, process is in early stages - WSJ. The operations under consideration for sale could be worth more than $1.0B. || Logitech [LOGN.SZ] Reports Q1 -$0.20 v -$0.19e, R$327.9M v $318.4Me. Guides Q2 Rev $465-485M v $507.5Me, GM 27-29%. ||

- Speakers: German Fin Min Stienbrueck stated that USD to remain dominant reserve currency, but added that the important of USD would decline against both the EUR and CNY currencies. He noted that once the economy recovers there will be the threat of rising inflation ||
China's Premier Wen commented that it would continue to firmly implement expansionary fiscal policy and reiterated that the PBoC would continue its "appropriately loose" monetary policy. He noted that that fiscal position remained very grim. The Chinese economy was showing more positive signs but reiterated the view that its economic recovery was at a critical point || German Bank Assoc: stated that the German Q2 GDP contraction would be less than 0.5%. The association warned against excessive optimism on economy and noted that German annual CPI to be negative for the next few months || Japan DPJ opposition party official commented that intervention in currency markets must be avoided and added that a gradual rise in Yen's value would be beneficial (elections on Aug 30th) ||Moody's raised Philippines' foreign and local currency gov't ratings to Ba3 from B1; outlook stable || China-Africa Development Fund Vice Gov: End 2Q assets at CNY4 Trillion; Outstanding forex loans total $79.1B || MOF's Vice Fin Min Tango Japanese Trade surplus in June does show an export pickup || Australian RBA Assistant Gov commented that the local economy has held up fairly well || Japanese DPJ Official (opposition party) noted that intervention in currency markets must be avoided, gradual rise in Yen would be beneficial || Italian Banking Association (ABI) forecasted 2009 GDP contraction of 5%. It saw +0.4% growth in 2010 and +1.0% in 2011. The ABI forecasted 2009 and 2010 deficit to GDP ratio at 5.2% and 2011 at 4.8% || || Italy's ISAE forecasted Italian 2009 GDP down by5.3%, with mild growth next year at +0.2%

- In Currencies: The USD and JPY started the European session on a soft note and remained that way throughout the morning into NY. Continued expectations of a global economic recovery continued to increase appetite for yield. There was vague chatter that the Japanese MOF might have told some large Japanese accounts that it is "safe" to buy USD/JPY from around the 93 area. The GBP was firmer following the U.K retail sales data, which beat expectations and also aided by the BBA mortgage approvals also improved to 35.2k in June. Dealers noting that further equity market strength and upbeat U.S.

- In Energy/commodities: Japan weekly oil product inventories 12.5M kiloliters vs 12.4M at July 11 .Gasoline inventories 2.24M kiloliters vs 2.27M prior || FT article noting that spot iron ore prices are fast approaching $100/. The article noted that the level is well above the levels at which miners and steelmakers in
Japan, South Korea and Europe have agreed to supply deals.

- In Fixed Income Supply: After a brief interval supply rears its ugly head again today with the Treasury's 2-5 and 7 Note announcements due later in the
New York morning. Ahead of the announcements 10y Note futures sit right at the unchanged mark, with prices and yields in the cash market pretty much unmoved from yesterdays close. Across the Atlantic it's a different story with UK and German fixed income both under some pressure despite weakness in the equity space. Better than expected retail sales data saw 10y Gilts hit an intraday high yield of 3.895%, its highest level in over a month. Bunds managed to hold up comparatively better than Gilts , with 10y yields gapping higher but steadily moving lower, with the Bund testing the 3.40% level at the time of writing.

*** NOTES ***

- Asia Development Bank Semi-annual Economic Review: China's GDP may grow more than 7% forecast in 2009, China is "major bright spot" in emerging east Asia


***Looking Ahead***

Weekly Jobless a key focus today and a plethora of corporate earnings with BMY, CIT, CME, EMC, F, HSY, MCD, MMM, NEM, NOC, NUE, PM, PNC, POT, RAI, RS, RTN, SWY, T, UPS, WYE, XRX all expected to report before the NY equity open.

- 7:00 (BR) Brazil July FGV Consumer Confidence: No expectations v 106.4 prior

- 8:00 (BR) Brazil Unemployment Rate 8.90% e v 8.80% prior

- 8:30 (US) Initial Jobless Claims w/e Jul 18th: 557Ke v 522K prior

- 8:30 (US) Continuing Claims w/e Jul 11th: 63.9Me v 6.27M prior

- 9:00 (US) RPX Composite 28dy Y/Y: No expectations v -19.69% prior

- 9:00 (US) RPX Composite 28dy Index - - No expectations v 188.52 prior

- 9:00 (BE) Belgian Business Confidence Level sa: -22e v -23.6 prior

- 9:30 (US) Fed's Tarullo testifies before Senate Banking Committee

- 10:00 (US) Existing Home Sales 4.84M No expectations v 4.77M prior

- 10:00 (US)Existing Home Sales M/M: 1.50% e v 2.40% prior


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AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 31 July 2018
AA JP- Bank of Japan
A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales
A 09:00 EZ- flash HICP/GDP
AA 12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator
A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
Wed 1 Aug 2018
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AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls
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AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision
Thu 2 Aug 2018
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 3 Aug 2018
A Final Services PMIs
AA 12:30 US- Employment
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