Thursday July 23, 2009 - 11:51:18 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day : 23-Jul-2009 - 1148 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.0695/0699...Seeking Direction
R: 1.0720-26 / 1.077-89
S: 1.0647 / 1.0624-20 / 1.0594
Swiss has risen sharply in the Asia session after a pull pack yesterday. It is currently standing at the Resistance formed by 89 period moving average of the Highs in the 4-hourly. It is expected to take support at 1.0681, the much talked about long term support obtained by joining the Lows of 2nd June (1.0590) and 24th June (1.0631) which is also the 38.2% level of todayâ€™s rally.
Support at 1.0681 may propel the pair to greater highs of 1.0726 in the coming US session. If however the Support gives in to the bears, the low of 2nd June at 1.0590 can be tested.
Limit Buy Order:
Buy USD 10K at 1.0660, SL 1.0590, TP 1.0740
GBP-USD @ 1.6510/14...Resistance at 1.6550
R: 1.6550-60 / 1.6600 / 1.6670
S: 1.6460 / 1.6375 / 1.6320
Cable saw a break above 1.6500 during the day. After trading above 1.6500 and recording a high of 1.6544, the pair once again fell below 1.6500 and is now trading just above 1.6500. On the upside 1.6550 is a significant level to watch for now. A break above this level may see the pair testing 1.6600, the upper end of the range (1.6200-6600) in which it has been trading for some time.
On the downside the 21-MA on the 4-hr (1.6461) is a significant level to watch for. The pair has not seen a strong break below this Support level during the day. A strong break below this Support at 1.6461 might pull the pair down towards 1.6375-6350 in the coming sessions.
GBP 10K Short at 1.6460, SL 1.6550, TP 1.6320
AUD-USD @ 0.8176/79...Bearish outlook
R: 0.8206 / 0.8257
S: 0.8131-24 / 0.8088-76 / 0.8043
Aussie tried to break the top of the range and rose till 0.8206 (the first resistance mentioned before). However similar to what happened yesterday it has entered back into the range (0.8108-0.8180) in which it has been trading for 3 weeks now.
As for the US session, we expect the pair to touch the Support of 0.8131 if the bearishness continues. A sharp fall and break below 0.8131 can catalyze downward momentum, which can lead the pair to 0.8108 (which is the bottom of the range) and 0.8043 (which is a major horizontal Support â€“ joining recent tops in the 4-hourly). On the upside, the trend is losing its momentum yet a movement above the current levels should be stalled at 0.8206 or 0.8257 (which is a major Resistance)
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