User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Thursday July 23, 2009 - 13:49:36 GMT
Black Swan Capital -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Leading and Following…

Key News

·         Shipments from the world's second-biggest economy (Japan) fell 35.7 percent from a year earlier, an improvement from a 40.9 percent decline in May, the government said Thursday. Exports have fallen every month since October. (AP)

·         South Africa’s rand rose to its strongest level in 11 months on speculation a merger of the biggest mobile-phone operators in India and Africa may inject as much as 60 billion ($7.8 billion) into the economy. (Bloomberg)





"The fault, dear Brutus, is not in our stars,
But in ourselves, that we are underlings."


Julius Caesar (I, ii, 140-141)


FX Trading – Leading and Following…


Do stocks and currencies lead commodities?  We think stocks are the best discounting mechanism we have.  We think sooner or later the fundamentals of supply and demand are factored into prices.  If that is true, then fundamentals, judged with the gift of hindsight, are the final arbiter of financial market over- or undershoot i.e. markets valued well above or below their perceived fundamental value.  The problem of course is, using commodities (which give some semblance of real demand and not just expectation) is no panacea, as speculation premium or discount resides there as well. 


So what are we left with?  We are left with watching key intermarket relationships to see if moves in one market are being validated by moves in another.  Yet who leads and who follows isn’t something we can predict.  We can only see divergences on occasion that may reflect that expectations in financial markets are running ahead of what is happening in the real economy.  And maybe the chart we show below displays that…maybe!  Before you peek at the chart, consider some recent information…


From the FT today:

WTI [West Texas Intemediate] has been trading at a discount to Brent for much of July, reflecting weak US demand conditions, which were a feature again in US inventories data, released on Wednesday.


Eugen Weinberg at Commerzbank noted that declining crude oil consumption was not limited to the US economy.


“’Crude oil imports in Japan, the third largest oil consumer worldwide, plummeted by 19 per cent year-on-year in June to the lowest level in 18 years,” said Mr Weinberg: “To date, only China has seen a noticeable recovery in oil demand. This underlines our sceptical view on the current level of oil prices.


“US inventories data, released on Wednesday showed crude stocks fell 1.8m barrels last week, below the consensus forecast for a decline of 2.1m barrels. Much of the decline was due to a fall in imports as refineries’ demand for crude remained subdued, due to weak profit margins and poor demand from end users. Refinery utilisation fell 2.1 percentage points to 85.8 per cent, a bigger-than-expected drop.”


Speaking of China, the word malinvestment of the Austrian School variety comes rushing to mind.  We think malinvestment is pervasive in many industries in China; we know malinvestment is pervasive in Chinese real estate.  The comments below are those of a fund manager examining some properties in China, they were posted on the blog of Professor Michael Pettis--a man who consistently provides some brilliant insight on the happenings within China: [our emphasis]:


“I don’t know how much you travel around China.  Tom and I do a fair bit, and most recently we were in Guiyang.  I thought I’d seen insane excess in the past – 200 thousand square meter malls completely empty next to apartment complexes with 40 thousand units and 30% occupancy rates, etc. etc.  But what we saw over there is rather hard to fathom.  It seems the Guiyang city mayor had the same idea as the Shenzhen mayor – to move the old downtown to a piece of undeveloped land. 


“Of course Guiyang has a quarter the population and probably a quarter the per capita income of Shenzhen.  They built sprawling new government buildings about a 20-minute drive north of town.  And then the residential high rise projects started going up.  From driving around the area, Tom and I figured well over 100 20+ storey buildings. 


“What was most distressing was that the development has been totally uncoordinated – a project with 15 buildings here, in another field two miles away a project with one building, another mile in another direction three buildings, sprawled over what was easily over 30 square kms. of farmland well north of town.  Every building we got close enough to see was either incomplete/under construction, or empty.  Our tone gradually went from ‘aha, another one!’ to ‘Oh my God, another one.’  We conservatively guesstimated that we saw US$10bn of NPLs in one afternoon.  The only buildings that were occupied were six-storey towers built to accommodate the peasants who had been displaced by the construction.” 


From FT – Lex Today:


The widening valuation gulf between Asian and western stocks has investors nervously eyeing the exits. Asia’s forward price/earnings ratio, at 23 times, is teetering some 30 per cent above its three-year average; the US and Europe, at 16 and 13 times, are 7 and 11 per cent above trend, respectively. The spread between eastern and western p/es has averaged 4.5 during that period; now it is 8.6.


Now you can look…Aussie vs. Emerging Market Stocks vs. Crude Oil:


Are trailing oil prices reflecting a major disconnect?  The glass half-full crowd says no.  They are of the opinion oil will surge to reflect an improving global economy.  The glass-half empty crowd, the camp where my allegiance lies for now, says risk appetite assets are ahead of themselves and crude demand is telling the story.  So, step right up and place your bet.  After all, that’s why they call them markets. 


Jack Crooks

Black Swan Capital


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Mon 10 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output
Tue 11 Sep 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision
A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey
Wed 12 Sep 2018
A 12:30 US- PPI
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 18:00 US- Beige Book
Thu 13 Sep 2018
A 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
AA 12:30 US- CPI
Fri 14 Sep 2018
A 08:30 GB- GDP
AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105