tentative optimism, exit still a long way off
Stocks outperform euro
Forex markets have decoupled to some extent from stock
markets: Only at the beginning of the
week were they able to follow surging stocks. EUR-USD
rose to 1.4277, but then ran out of
steam even as the Dax scaled new highs in the second
half of the week, reaching the highest
level so far this year at 5300. The common currency on
the other hand fell back to around 1.42 at the end of the week â€“ a hurdle difficult
to clearat the moment. USD-JPY more or less moved sideways too, closing this
week the same as last at 94.50.
The DAX was fuelled mainly by strong corporate earnings.
There were a few disappointments such as Morgan Stanley and Wells Fargo. The
latter in particular â€“ as some of its competitors â€“ had to digest a massive
increase in credit-loss provisions. But on the whole, expectations were
exceeded. Companies such as Caterpillar were mainly able to post higher profits
because of cost
cutting measures. Sales, however, have declined sharply
in the second quarter as expected.
Markets had hoped for a more upbeat message from Fed
Governor Ben Bernanke before the Senate. Mr Bernanke did speak of signs of
stabilization in the US economy, but at the same time
he emphasized that unemployment would continue to rise
strongly, which might be a drag on
private consumption. Therefore the key interest rate
would remain at its very low level for a considerable time. The Fed Governor
said an exit from the very expansive monetary policy would depend on the labour
market, capacity utilization and inflation expectations. Mainly because of the rather
dismal outlook for the US labour market, a policy switch has thus apparently
moved a long way into the future. Accordingly, bond markets gained strongly.
Subsequently, markets took little notice of Mr Bernankeâ€™s
comments on an exit strategy. He was very detailed on the instruments with
which the Fed is planning to mop up excess liquidity in a smooth and timely way
once the economy recovers. The Fed Governor showed himself convinced that any
inflationary risks were under control. To this, bond markets reacted with an upwards
movement which proved to be temporary, however. Bond prices retreated again
when the stock market rally continued in the second half of the week.
Macroeconomic data further confirmed an economicstabilization.
German ifo business sentiment improved for the fourth consecutive time in June.
For the first time the current situation was
assessed to be significantly better, albeit mainly in
the retail sector, which indicates that the economic stimulus programmes are
having some effect. However, the ifo remains at a very low level and companies
are still planning to reduceemployment.
Next week the credit crunch debate is likely to be fuelled
by the ECBâ€™s new Bank Lending Surveyon 29 July. Moreover, the money supply data
for the euro area are due on Monday. In the past months the growth rates of
credit aggregates have been falling continuously. The latest figures showed
that credit expansion has come to a halt or is in fact already declining
slightly. If this trend continues, pressure on the ECB Council to take measures
against a credit crunch will increase. The Council meets on 6 August. Calls from
politicians for de-crunching measures are getting increasingly louder anyway.
A credit crunch and banksâ€™ rising loss provisions are
issues that could put the crisis to the front
again. Therefore it looks unlikely that EUR-USD will
break out of its current trading range of 1.37 to 1.43 next week.
Uwe Angenendt +49 69 718-3648
Grabbe / Klaus NÃ¤fken
report has been prepared by BHF-BANK Aktiengesellschaft on behalf of itself and
its affiliated companies (together "BHF-BANK Group") solely for the
information of its clients. The information and opinions in this document are
based on sources believed to be reliable and acting in good faith, but no
representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by any member of the
BHF-BANK Group as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions and
recommendations are given in good faith but without legal responsibility and
are subject to change without notice. The information does not constitute
advice or personal recommendation, for which the duty of suitability would be
owed, but may facilitate your own investment decision. Moreover, you should
seek your own advice as to the suitability of an investment matter mentioned
herein. Investors are reminded that the price of securities and the income from
them can go down as well as up and that the past performance of an investment
or a market is not necessarily indicative for future results. This document is
for information purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or
their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete, and this
document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation
of any offer to buy the securities mentioned in it. BHF-BANK Group and its
officers and employees may have a long or short position or engage in
transactions in any of the securities mentioned in this document, or in any
related securities. This publication must not be distributed in the United
rights reserved. Please mention source when quoting from it.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.