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Friday January 28, 2005 - 17:16:23 GMT -

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Weekly report -The voice of


The USD keeps firm across the board, though this has been a back-and-forth moves week. We traded in a very narrow range within the current short-term trend, but no major levels were broken, nor any definite move was in place. All in all, the general USD bullish sentiment remains well positioned, and further gains can’t be ruled out in the near future. It does technically look very good, therefore, unless a sharp counter-move unfolds, we could well be seeing the USD breaking key levels from the previous downtrend in coming sessions.

A reference that I want to put emphasis on is the watch of the moving averages for determining the direction of the trend. I use to watch them on a daily basis, where I found them truly reliable. It may sound quite simple, and quite obvious too, that moving averages follow core price action, but their crosses give extremely good feedback about the current market sentiment. I look for the 20-day, the 50-day and the 200-day movings. The first two are used together. What I look for is a cross of the 20 to the 50. If it is on the upside, then we have bullish sentiment for that specific pair. If it is on the downside, we ha bearish sentiment.

But even more important than them I find the 200-day moving average, which, for me, really leads to trend changes if clearly broken. When the 200-day moving average is sustainedly broken either way, it usually leads to a mjor move in that direction. We also see low-lasting breaks of it, but eventually and on a daily basis, when its level is broken, it yields some if trading in the direction of the break. And following the break of its level almost guarantees to catch the big trend that may happen after.

So, what does all this lead up to? How can I implement them to my daily market readings for a better understanding of the markets? The fact that I raised the moving averages topic was because in the currently volatile environment, you will find them useful for your investments decisions, if followed closely and actively.

The basic strategy still is to watch the 20-day moving crossing above / below the 50-day one. But if you take a close look to them, what we have now is a cross against the major trends (in general terms) for the USD. Indeed, we have a USD bullish crosses while the long term trend is on the downside. What happeneds then? Well, it clearly is a warning signal. A clear alert that something may be unfolding here. Reliable? Good question. To prove it reliable, my trick is to wait the 20-day moving to cross the 200-day and to have the price well below the latter as well. If/when the 50-day crosses down the 200-day, we have full confirmation of a change in the trend.

But that is not all. Since trading is not a one-way train science, retracements, counter-moves and spikes often occur. That means that a good position may be stopped out by being too cautious or by just the fear of loosing what it was earned some sessions before. If we take the current short-term moving crosses (against the major trend), we will undoubtedly see moves in the opposite direction of the cross. We have seen that this week, with lots op ups and downs. How can you deal with this? If you feel very conservative and less proclive to holding positions onto the red before turning to the green try this tip :use the movings as the support areas of the current move to help you decide with your investments. Take special attention to the 50-day moving, which will turn to be a great support to the currentt move, and, if broken, it will definitely indicate a weakness of the trend and holding positions could carry further losses. Using them as support areas, I can definitely say you’re entering a reasonably good risk/reward ratio trades.

This week’s closing levels (at the time of this writing) : EUR/USD 1.3035 (-5), USD/CHF 1.1870 (+20), GBPUSD 1.8865 (+100), EUR/GBP 0.6910 (-35), USD/JPY 103.45 (+75), USD/CAD 1.2415 (+200), AUD/USD 0.7750 (+60), NZD/USD 0.7122 (+-20), EUR/CHF 1.5480 (+25), EUR/JPY 134.85 (+100), GBP/CHF 2.2395 (+180), GBP/JPY 195.10 (+250). GBP is confirmed as the overall winner all over across the board again this week, specially gaining momentum against the EUR, which is triggering bearish signals agains it. USD was also a major overall winner except against the GBP, and CAD was the definite looser of the week, loosing big time against all majors, following at the perfection its weekly bearish signals.


Weekly Closing Basis Trading Ideas : holding the selling GBP idea against the USD and the buying of the greenback against the CAD from previous weeks.


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