Monday July 27, 2009 - 11:53:58 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day : 27-Jul-2009 - 1150 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.0671/74...Finding a bottom
R: 1.0726-40 / 1.0775-89 / 1.0810
S: 1.0653 / 1.0630 / 1.0594
Swiss has been falling ever since taking Resistance from 1.0726-40 (13-period DMA) and currently trading at a Support of 1.0653. This is a crucial level as it is the 0.618 retracement level of the bull move from a low of 0.9638 (on 16th March 2008) to a high of 1.2297 (on 16th October 2008) on the weekly charts. 1.0650 is also the Trendline Support in the 4-hourly, by joining the Lows of 21st and 22nd July.
A break of the current strong Support at 1.0653 can push the pair down to 1.0630, while if this floor is preserved, the pair can go to 1.0726-40 in the coming US session.
USD 10K Long at 1.0660, SL 1.0580, TP 1.0800
GBP-USD @ 1.6496/99...Mixed
R: 1.6550-60 / 1.6608 / 1.6791
S: 1.6375 / 1.6320-6300 / 1.6270
Cable traded in a very narrow range of 1.6440-6523 during the day. Though the pair witnessed a break above 1.6500 during the day, it could not continue its upmove and fell once again below 1.6500. Since the pair has not shown reasonable move during the day, our view on the pair continue to remain the same as mentioned in the morning edition.
On the upside a break and a strong move above 1.6500 might see a rise towards 1.6600, the upper end of the range (1.6200-6600) in which the pair has been trading for some time. Note that the projected Max-High for the day is 1.6608. On the downside 1.6375 (21-DMA and 200-MA on the 4-hr chart) is the significant level to watch for, a break below which might pull the pair down towards 1.6300.
AUD-USD @ 0.8245/48...At Resistance
R: 0.8257 / 0.8289-0.8301 / 0.8332
S: 0.8208 / 0.8160-73 / 0.8108
The pair took Support from 0.8140 and is on its way to rest the Resistance at 0.8257. Aussie has broken from the rectangle formed in the 4-hourly chart on the upside, which can propel the rally till a minimum of 0.8289-0.8301, as per the target of the rectangle. This resistance is crucial as it is also (a one time tested) the Median Line of the Andrewâ€™s Pitchfork drawn by using 3 pivot points on the monthly â€“ Low (0.4015 on 01/09/2009), High (0.9848 on 1/07/2008) and Low (0.6006 on 1/10/2008)
On the downside, Supports of 0.8208 and 0.8160 will break the fall, if any.
We got stopped out from our short trade, entered at 0.8173.
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