Monday July 27, 2009 - 21:16:38 GMT
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Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz
Forex Research - Morning Report
Morning Report Tuesday 28 July 2009
News and views
US new home sales in June were much stronger than expected, supporting a mild buy-risk tone during the evening. The SPX dipped early, but ground higher throughout the session to close +0.3%. Curiously, the VIX index also rose. US 10yr notes were sold on the housing data, up 6bp in yield, an inflation linked bond auction 2bp worse than expected adding, and 3mth Libor nudged 0.6bp lower to sub-0.50% (0.496%) for the first time. Hungary cut its policy rate by 100bp to 8.50%, the market expecting 50bp. The narrowing trend in credit spreads continued, fuelled by strong retail appetite.
EUR had little net movement, masking a spike to 1.43 and dip to 1.42, and closing halfway. GBP ranged sideways in a wedge around 1.6480. CAD rallied from 1.0840 to 1.0780, widely followed commentator Dennis Gartman predicting it would reach 0.9000 on expected stronger commodities.
AUD continued its Asian session rally to 0.8260, but profit taking dragged it back half a cent.
NZD is unchanged around 0.6560, after a spike to 0.6616. AUD/NZD broke above 1.2500 to 1.2540.
US new home sales jump 11% in June, to their highest since last November, and 16.7% higher than the January low point for this series, which fell 76% in the three and a half years from the July 2005 peak. Three of the four regions posted gains, although the South fell a further 5.4%, still paying back Januaryâ€™s 14.4% jump. But the strong national result gives us more confidence that this yearâ€™s upswing in new single family house starts could prove to be sustainable â€“ after all, if new homes werenâ€™t being sold, there would be little reason to keep building more. Whatâ€™s more, the stock of unsold new houses fell to 8.8 monthsâ€™ worth of supply, its lowest since October 2007 (though still double the norm of earlier this decade). Recovery might be too strong a word at this early stage, but US housing activity has clearly broadened from the recent situation when the only sale activity of note was the distressed disposal of foreclosed properties at low prices.
US Dallas Fed factory index slipped from Juneâ€™s weak reading to an even softer July outcome at â€“25.5. This contrasts with all the other regional manufacturing indices, which have either improved sharply or slipped somewhat but maintained an up-trend, mid-year. The production sub-index was especially weak, falling to a four month low, but all the key activity detail, including the outlook view, was weaker in July.
Japanese corporate services prices (CSPI) fell 0.4% in June, down 3.2%yr. Services deflation deepened in June, despite the slightly lower than expected outcome on the headline index.
Euroland money supply growth M3 slows to 3.5% yr. Money supply growth continued to subside in June; loans to the private sector grew just 1.5% yr (1.8% yr previously). This is considered too low for the health of the economy by the European Central Bank, although recent quasi-quantitative easing measures may eventually impact on credit provision and hence the rate of money growth. German consumer confidence (surveyed early July but labelled August) continued its recovery, as evidence rolls in that the German recession continues, but at a slower pace of contraction. German import prices rose 0.6% in June but base effects continued to pull down the annual pace of decline, to â€“11.3% yr.
UK house prices flat for the third month running in July (not seasonally adjusted), after a string of nineteen consecutive monthly declines. Annual house price deflation eased from â€“8.7% yr to â€“7.7% yr. Hometrack measures house prices in England and Wales as reported by estate agents (and is one of at least seven UK house price indicators).
NZD remains unable to break higher, and so another day of ranging between 0.6500 and 0.6630 is in store. Todayâ€™s NZ trade balance and RBA-speak pose market risk on the day.
Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 14 November 2007. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. Â© 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts.
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