- Equity markets in Europe have continued their torrential upward rise. In the thick of earnings season, outside of last Friday's mixed close (with the CAC slightly negative), equity markets have climbed higher for 11 sessions. In the European pre-market, Q2/H1 reports were seen from giants in the financial, energy and industrial sector. BP [BP.UK] beat on net profit and revenue, while posting a q/q production increase (it is assumed that main European rival Shell [RDSA.UK] will post a decline on Nigerian attacks. Deutsche Bank [DBK.GE] also posted its second straight quarterly gain, with figures ahead of expectations on a turnaround in debt trading operations. Concerns around investor spying claims and continued RMBS exposure drove shares lower. EADS [EAD.FR], which missed on its net figure, confirmed expectations for approx flat y/y rev and Airbus deliveries, sending shares higher in the European morning. Equity strength followed these, and reports from Verbund [VER.AS], Ahold [AH.NV], BBVA [BBVA.SP] and Endesa [ELE.SP] drove equity movements. European bourses trended higher through the 3:00EST before peaking broadly before the 4:00EST hr. A range of cautious comments at this time from BP and the Norwegian central bank supported a sudden slackening in equity interest. Markets paired gains, with this trend accelerating past 4:30EST. By 5:00EST, markets were printing session lows with the FTSE falling into negative territory before rallying. Volumes through the morning session have remained strong on the back of high churn in earnings related names that pushed averages ahead of their norms. With another full NY morning with additional Q2 corporate earnings and US consumer confidence and home price index data expected, European equities are again seeking to position themselves ahead of these releases.
- In individual equities: Deutsche Bank [DBK.GE] Reported Q2 Net â‚¬1.09B versus â‚¬1.0B estimates, revenue â‚¬7.94B above the â‚¬7.2B consensus. Tier 1 Ratio 11% v 10.2% q/q. Q2 RoE 12.8% v 22.26% q/q. Q2 Level 3 assets â‚¬64B v.â‚¬80B q/q. Q2 provision for loan losses were â‚¬659M v â‚¬526M q/q. Q2 provision for credit losses â‚¬1B v â‚¬135M y/y. The bank provided no concrete outlook for the remainder of 2009. CEO said the outlook for the remainder of 2009 is strongly influenced by progress in the global economy. BP [BP.UK] reported a Q2 net profit of $4.4B, well ahead of the $2.8B estimate. Revenue was $56.6B, above the $49.9B consensus. Q2 CAPEX $4.8B v $4.6B q/q, expects 2009 CAPEX to be less than $20B. Net debt at the end of the quarter was $27.1B The ratio of net debt to net debt plus equity was 22% compared with 20% a year ago. Reported production for the quarter was 4,005M boe/d, more than 4% higher than the second quarter of 2008. Replacement cost $3.14B v $2.39B q/q. CEO: latest economic data suggested the global economy could stabilise this summer but that any recovery, whenever it comes, would likely be sluggish. The overall picture is of energy demand now stabilising following significant falls in the first half of the year. We see little evidence of any growth in demand and expect the recovery to be long and drawn out. EAD's [EAD.FR] Reported Q2 Net â‚¬208M below â‚¬477M estimate, Q2 Rev â‚¬11.7B above â‚¬10.7B. Guided FY09 revenues in line with 2008 levels (implies â‚¬43.0B v â‚¬42.5Be). Expects positive EBIT in H2, but lower on y/y basis. Expects Airbus to win 300 gross new orders in 2009. 2009 Deliveries should be at least at the 2008 level. Negotiations on A400M with customers entering new phase/took Q2 charge of â‚¬71M on project. BBVA [BBVA.SP] Reported H1 Net â‚¬2.8B above â‚¬2.54B estimate, Net Interest Income â‚¬6.9B above â‚¬6.6B estimate. Q2 Net â‚¬1.56B beat â‚¬1.28B expectations, NPL Ratio 3.2% v v 2.8% q/q. Tier 1 capital ratio at 6.9% v 6.4% q/q. Lloyds [LLOY.UK] Appoints Sir Win Bischoff new Chairman. Sir Win will take up the position of Chairman of Lloyds Banking Group from 15 September 2009. Xstrata [XTA.UK] Provided H1 Production report: Thermal coal production +18% y/y. Ferrochrome production in the first half was 60% lower than the same period in 2008, following the temporary suspension of up to 80% of production capacity through late 2008 and early 2009.As the industry leader, the Xstrata-Merafe Chrome Venture acted swiftly to curtail production as demand for ferrochrome declined sharply from the third quarter of 2008 due to significant destocking in the stainless steel sector. Shire [SHP.UK] FDA Issued Complete Response Letter for INTUNIV Extended Release for the Treatment of ADHD in Children and Adolescents. Co has received a Complete Response letter today for INTUNIV(TM) (guanfacine) Extended Release from the Food and Drug Administration. This decision comes following labeling discussions with the FDA that did not result in agreement in time to meet the PDUFA date. Rolls Royce [RR.UK] To build 4 new factories and 2 new research facilities in UK and a wide chord fan blade factory in Singapore. These investments will enable Rolls-Royce to respond to anticipated growth in its aerospace and civil nuclear markets and will create or secure over 800 jobs in innovative high-value manufacturing programmes, largely in Assisted Areas. Investec [INVP.UK] Proposed equity placement of up to 22M shares (4.92% of current shares outstanding). The equity placement and subsequent repurchase of the debt is expected to improve Investec's tier 1 capital without reducing the total capital adequacy ratio, which is consistent with management's objective of maintaining capital levels significantly above regulatory requirements. Nexan [NEX.FR] Reported H1 Net loss â‚¬57M v profit â‚¬41.2Me (includes items), Rev â‚¬2.09B v â‚¬2.2Be. Guided 2009 Organic Rev down 10% To 15% y/y. Reaffirmed FY operation margin target of sales of 6%. LVMH [MC.FR] Reported 1H net profit â‚¬687M compared â‚¬734.4M estimate, Rev â‚¬7.8B in line with consensus of â‚¬7.8B. To pay interim â‚¬0.35 dividend. Expected to continue to gain market share. Cut costs by 5% in H1; To continue and amplify cost cuts in H2. To focus on Star brands. Pernod Richard [RI.FR] Sold Tia maria to Illva Saronno for â‚¬125M. Continental [CON.GE] Creditors to firm have urged management to halt plans for capital increase -Frankfuter Allgemeine Zeitung. Reminder on July 20 -Could seek to pursue a â‚¬1B capital increase (22% of market cap) - FT Deutschland. Lufthansa [LHA.GE] Could extend Austrian Airlines takeover past initial July 31 deadline -Agentur. Reminder: Firms have been in negotiations with EU Commission to seek regulatory approval for the action. Verbund [VER.AS] Reported H1 Net â‚¬242.9M versus â‚¬392.0M estimate, Rev â‚¬1.6B versus â‚¬1.67Be; Confirmed 2009 forecasts. H1 Operating results â‚¬533.7M v â‚¬564.2M y/y. H1 spot power market prices have fallen sharply. Reiterated it expects earnings for the full year to be on a par with 2008 levels. Subsea 7 [SUB.NO] Reports Q2 Net $82.2M v $47.9Me, Rev $637.2M v $560.1Me. Continues to see strong medium to long term outlook. Current operating environment remains challenging. Will continue to seek cost cuts across the group. Order book stands at $2.9B.
- In speakers: German Employers Assoc stated that H1 wage agreements were more moderate, with most below the 2.0% level. The Indian Central Bank (RBI) left its key interest rates unchanged, as expected. The RBI to maintain accommodative stance until demand recovers and noted it could reverse its expansionary policy quickly and effectively. The central bank raised its FY10 inflation forecast to 5% versus prior forecast of 4% and reiterated that 2009 GDP would grow by 6%. The RBI noted that both growth and inflation forecasts contained upside risks but added any upturn in growth momentum was unlikely until mid 2010. It reiterated its call for the Indian govt to curb fiscal deficit. Indian Fin Sec commented that the government would continue to be focused on growth and would continue accommodative monetary policy stance. China's GDP to grow around 9% in Q3 - NDRC.
- In currencies: USD and JPY look likely to remain under pressure amid an ongoing backdrop of risk appetite in global markets. EUR/USD hit fresh 8-week highs as it briefly tested above the 1.43 level during the session. European dealers noting that a CNBC comment that with 184 of the S&P 500 companies that reported thus far 77% have surpassed analysts' estimates. Fanning the risk appetite was chatter that Merrill Lynch raised its China 2009 GDP forecast to 8.7% from 8.0% prior complemented with China's Institute of Economic Research of the National Development and Reform seeing Q3 GDP at 9.0%. During Asia, RBA's Stevens was optimistic that the domestic downturn might not prove to be a serious one. AUD/USD hit fresh 10 month highs above the 0.83 handle while USD/CAD tested below the 1.0770 area. Thus risk assumption frame of mind continues to remain the prevalent trading theme.
- However, the JPY was entering the NY morning on a firmer note with option-related flows cited as one factor for the change in session sentiment. USD/JPY hovering in the mid-94 area after failing to sustain any momentum after testing 95.30 on Monday in NY. The USD/CHF pair inching lower towards the 1.0600 level and some dealers pondering whether the SNB might reappear to 'defend' the technical level.
- In energy/commodities: Saudi Aramco CEO commented in Al-Hayat that Saudi Arabia has 4M bpd of spare capacity. Reportedly China to cut Diesel and Gasoline prices on Wednesday -State TV. France GDF Suez [GSZ.FR] Raising gas prices for French industry +7.4%, backdated to July 1st
- In fixed income supply: The competing themes of supply, equity weakness and month end have contributed to wild swings in fixed income this morning in Europe. Government bonds recovered earlier losses to move firmly into positive territory ahead of in New York. The first leg of the Treasury's record offering of coupon supply - a whopping $42B in 2 Notes - looms ominously and has seen short dated issues under perform. Bids moved into the belly of UK, German and US yield curves as equities rolled over, leading to bull flattening in all three markets. The Netherlands sold â‚¬1.1B in 2,3 and 9y DSL's whilst Italy sold â‚¬3.5B in 2011 zero coupon bonds, both with respectable results. Comments from PIMCO, noting that the UK Bank rate was likely to stay at its record low well into 2010 and that short dated Gilts looked cheap gained some attention but market reaction was ultimately muted.
- In the papers: Britain's FSA has found no evidence that speculators are behind big swings in oil prices; U.S. CFTC plans to suggest a role of speculators in a WSJ article. The FSA was leaning toward the conclusion that recent volatility and price increases have more to do with uncertainty over economic growth than speculation, according to people familiar with the matter.
*** NOTES ***
- China's PBoC: Q2 domestic economic recovery faster than expected; Reiterates that the government should keep macroeconomic policy stable
- Could higher equity markets generate their own stimuli???
***Looking Ahead*** Massive U.S. 2-yr Auction today
- 9:00 (US) May S&P/CaseShiller Home Price Index: No expectations v 139.18 prior
- 9:00 (US) May S&P/CS Composite-20 Y/Y: -17.9%e v -18.12% prior
- 9:15 (US) Second Day of US/China Strategic and Economic dialogue
- 10:00 (US) Jul Consumer Confidence: 49e v 49.3 prior
- 10:00 (US) Jul Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index: 8e v 6 prior
- 13:00 (US) Treasury to sell $42B in 2y Notes
Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure
All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.