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Sunday April 25, 2004 - 14:58:04 GMT
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Forecast of Majors for 26th April 2004

General Market Conditions

Friday saw key break levels remain intact and with key weekly patterns being tested there is risk of a slightly longer consolidation until the breaks are made. We have maintained a bullish outlook for some while and the patterns being considered actually require a quick break higher else the structure will begin to look a bit stale and will stretch the bullishness to the limit. Thus we feel the coming 1-2 days could well see a decisive break in one direction. On the Dollar upside we need to see breaks of resistance at 1.1775 Euro, 1.3205-25 Swissie, 1.7595-1.7625 Pound and 110.05-25 Yen to provide a lift. On the Dollar downside the key risks lie at 1.1940 Euro, 1.3030-40 Swissie, 1.7815 Pound and 108.60 Yen - breaks of which would suggest a sharp pullback. Have a profitable week.

Price: 109.00

Day View
Resistance: 109.20 ... 109.40 ... 109.75 ... 110.05
Support....: 108.90 ... 108.60 ... 108.40 ... 108.10

Bias: Mixed - waiting for breaks

Bullish: On the downside the 108.60 support held well but has not yet produced a strong recovery. A bullish stance really appears to require a quick and aggressive resumption of gains that need to break above 109.40 to generate follow-through to 110.05-25 at least and probably higher after a short pullback. Next resistance is at 111.05.

Bearish: The 108.60-65 level was tested and held and this continues to remain key to the downside. Thus only a breach of 108.60 would provoke sharper losses that would quickly make their way down to 107.30-60 at least. Further support seen at 106.65-75.

Week View
Resistance: 110.20 ... 111.55 ... 112.00 ... 114.10
Support....: 108.50 ... 107.30 ... 106.65 ... 105.80

Given the crucial nature of the next move price appeared to have consolidated by trading around the 4-hour Pivot Cloud without providing any real break. Schaff Trend Cycle is now declining but close to zero while FXS-RSI has dipped into oversold territory. We still cautiously look for a move to 111.05 but require a break here to maintain upward momentum. Break of 108.45-65 would concern.

Friday's comments continue to apply:

Bullish: The rally over the past week or so has not quite been consistent with our strongly bullish stance and we are becoming a little more cautious about how far it can go in this current phase. However, on balance we do feel that a move to 111.05 is likely - possibly even 111.75 but we would like to see clean break here to suggest further direct strength is a possible.

Bearish: The rally in the Dollar has not been as clean as expected and does raise some concern. However, only below 108.45-65 would cause us to consider the move higher is complete. Thus, on a reversal from 111.05-75 or a direct break of 108.45 woe would then look for a deeper pullback towards 106.80-107.20.

Month View
(Updated 19th April)
Resistance: 109.25 ... 111.15 ... 112.30 ... 114.90
Support....: 104.80 ... 103.30 ... 101.30 ..... 99.50

Having seen a move back above the 107.21-65 area the emphasis appears to be back on the upside in line with the bullish weekly and monthly cycles. We require 104.80-00 to hold for this and a move back above 109.25 would encourage gains up to 111.15, 112.32 with 114.90 being a higher target to keep in mind. Back below 104.80 would threaten the 103.42 low and call for losses down to 100.40.

Price: 1.1835

Day View
Resistance: 1.1845 ... 1.1880 ... 1.1920 ... 1.1945
Support....: 1.1795 ... 1.1775 ... 1.1750 ... 1.1725

Bias: Mixed - waiting for breaks

Bullish: Friday saw the 1.1940 resistance hold and prompted losses down towards the bottom of the range at 1.1797. A bullish stance will require a prompt move through pivot resistance around 1.1880-85 which would allow gains to extend towards the 1.1940-45 high seen on Friday. Break here is still needed to generate a stronger move higher. Next resistance is at 1.2030 and stronger at 1.2070.

Bearish: The 1.1940 resistance remained in tact on Friday maintaining the basic downward bias. However, to see this continue lower we require a break below 1.1775 which would then call for continued losses down to 1.1725 and probably 1.1650 on the day. Next target support is at 1.1560.

Week View
Resistance: 1.1940 ... 1.2020 ... 1.2077 ... 1.2220
Support....: 1.1775 ... 1.1655 ... 1.1560 ... 1.1490

Price has failed to confirm direction by trading around the 4-hour Pivot Cloud with support at 1.1775 and resistance at 1.1940 acting as key break levels. Schaff TC1 is now declining while FXS-RSI is also declining but in neutral territory. The 1.1775 - 1.1940 range is crucial to the next larger move and break will generate the sentiment for the coming month.

Bullish: The recovery from 1.1775 threatened the 1.1940 resistance on Friday and while there has been a strong pullback there has been no confirmation of the downside yet. Still, break at 1.1940 is required to generate a correction to the entire downside from 1.2927. Any further gains now would imply follow through to 1.2075 and probably back to 1.2145 and 1.2220-40.

Bearish: Having seen the Double Top target met on Thursday we need to be cautious and the current test of the crucial 1.1940 resistance is key to the downside. From this level we require a move back below 1.1840 and 1.1775 to keep the downside intact. Once through we would then expect to see losses continue to 1.1560 and 1.1490-00.

Month View
(Updated 19th April)
Resistance: 1.2085 ... 1.2325 ... 1.2455 ... 1.2655
Support....: 1.1720 ... 1.1560 ... 1.1310 ... 1.1165

While the progress lower has been choppy we do feel that the repeated rejection around 1.2400-55 and the decline from there should now allow price to move down to the Double Top target around 1.1720-50 and we suspect now a stronger decline. Support at 1.1560 may hold for a while but we while 1.1820-50 holds we consider the larger risk to be lower to 1.1165 over the next 4-6 weeks.

Price: 1.3155

Day View
Resistance: 1.3190 ... 1.3205 ... 1.3225 ... 1.3265
Support....: 1.3145 ... 1.3130 ... 1.3090 ... 1.3040

Bias: Mixed - wait for breaks

Bullish: Friday saw the key support at 1.3040 remain intact and the recovery make a new high at 1.3205. While this looks positive we would prefer a break above 1.3205-25 to be more confident of a strongly bullish stance. Thus only above 1.3225 would provoke sharp follow-through to 1.3310 at least where a short pullback is possible. Further resistance is seen at 1.3375-85.

Bearish: Failure to break below 1.3040 is not encouraging to any bearish stance. However, until 1.3225 is broken and should support at 1.3130 break we feel this would cause some losses once again that should reach 1.3040 once again. However, only break of 1.3030-40 would generate a stronger move lower. Next support is at 1.2945.

Week View
Resistance: 1.3225 ... 1.3305 ... 1.3385 ... 1.3490
Support....: 1.3040 ... 1.2935 ... 1.2825 ... 1.2710

Price held above key support at 1.3040 and is threatening to break above the 4-hour Pivot Cloud though resistance at 1.3225 remains key. Schaff Trend Cycle is now rising while FXS-RSI has been directionless in neutral territory. The entire picture appears to be at a crucial stage and break of the 1.3030-1.3225 range looks to set the direction for the coming weeks.

Bullish: Failure to break below 1.3030-40 and the move to 1.3205 does keep the upside alive but final confirmation of strength will come only in a break of 1.3225. Once seen this should provide a lift to 1.3310 at least and we feel to 1.3375 en route 1.3490.

Bearish: Although we saw a marginal new high at 1.3205 this still does not confirm further strength and while it holds any break back below 1.3130 would appear to suggest a retest of the 1.3030-40 support area. However, only a clear break of this lower support would cause a sharp reversal and a move back to 1.2945 and 1.2825.
Month View
(Updated 3rd April)
Resistance: 1.3085 ... 1.3235 ... 1.3410 ... 1.3700
Support....: 1.2625 ... 1.2515 ... 1.2180 ... 1.1700

The expected move higher has met with some early choppy price action but we feel this should now move onto the 1.3220-35 area this month at the very least and do see some risk of seeing gains extend to 1.3410. Watch this area since it could cause a pullback. Further resistance is around 1.3700.

Price: 1.7725

Day View
Resistance: 1.7735 ... 1.7770 ... 1.7815 ... 1.7835
Support....: 1.7700 ... 1.7685 ... 1.7640 ... 1.7625

Bias: Mixed - waiting for breaks

Bullish: Friday saw resistance at 1.7815 hold and cause a sharp dip back to 1.7642. However, while 1.7625 holds there is still chance that a recovery could move back to 1.7765-75 which we feel is important for the next move higher. Any break of this level would encourage a further test of 1.7815 and break confirms gains continuing through to 1.7905 at least. Next resistance is at 1.7950.

Bearish: With resistance at 1.7815 holding on Friday it does appear to provide encouragement for the downside to continue. However, with the larger picture balanced we would prefer to look for a break of 1.7624 and then 1.7595 which we feel would then trigger losses down to 1.7445 at least. Next support is at 1.7320.

Week View
Resistance: 1.7815 ... 1.7905 ... 1.7950 ... 1.8050
Support....: 1.7625 ... 1.7595 ... 1.7445 ... 1.7320

Price settled into a range around the 4-hour Pivot Cloud with 1.7624-1.7815 appearing to be crucial to the next medium term move. Schaff Trend Cycle is now rising but at 100 while FXS-RSI has risen but is now in neutral territory. We do feel that the current structures do point to this being a crucial point for the Pound and the next larger break will decide the direction for the coming weeks.

Bullish: Key resistance is at 1.7815-40 and any break above here would threaten a longer term recovery. First resistance is at 1.7905 and then 1.7950 but we would look for an eventual move back to 1.8145 at least.

Bearish: The failure at 1.7624 was unexpected and we can only retain a bearish outlook while 1.7835 holds. While this does and we see reversal lower through 1.7660 we would feel more confident of the original projection of a strong decline down to 1.7570 and 1.7445. Further support is seen at 1.7320.

Month View
(Updated 19th April)
Resistance: 1.8300 ... 1.8605 ... 1.8875 ... 1.9025
Support....: 1.7650 ... 1.7165 ... 1.6905 ... 1.6565

The move lower has met with a choppy start but we feel that we should now see losses resume and expect to see progress to the next support at 1.7650 this week. From there we should see a correction develop but the coming 4-6 weeks looks bearish towards 1.7165.


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