Sunday January 30, 2005 - 22:35:03 GMT
Share This Story
FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the British Pound vs U.S. Dollar 31st January 2005 Price:
Resistance: 1.8910 ... 1.8946 ... 1.8965 ... 1.8983
Support....: 1.8867 ... 1.8848 ... 1.8823 ... 1.8782
Mixed - waiting for breaks
Failure to break above the 1.8927 peak seen early on Friday has given a little caution but although we saw a marginal break below 1.8792 this was not by too much and thus we are left within a neutral congestion area. If we have any bias today, then it is a bullish one but to confirm further gains we need to see 1.8877 support (max downside to 1.8848) while a break back above 1.8910 will assist higher. If seen then look for gains to extend towards resistance between 1.8946-65 while a break above will confirm a rally to 1.8983 and the 1.9036 area.
From Friday's early peak we saw a drop to 1.8782 but recovery from there. Any bearish stance is going to need a break below 1.8845-67 and if seen would move lower to pressure the 1.8782-92 area once again. Next support is at the 1.8740-50 pivot area followed by 1.8700 and 1.8665.
Elliott Wave Comments:
28th January 2005
The break of the 1.8885 resistance tends to suggest that the 1.8524 low actually provided an end to the first part of the decline. This would imply a complete pullback to the 1.9548-1.8524 decline with resistance seen at 1.9036 (50%) and at 1.9157 (61.8%) at least.
The only risk to this is that the move since the 1.8644 low has been an expanded flat correction which would imply a cap around 1.8936. However, we tend to give this lo risk weighting.
31st January 2005
There is no real change in view although we are cautiously beginning to consider the possibility that the 1.8524 low actually completed a 5-wave move lower in Wave[a] and thus we are seeing Wave [b]. The only difference between the two wave counts shown in the chart is that if we count the low at 1.8524 as the end of a 5-wave move then the pullback higher could be stronger and reach 1.9036 or 1.9150. Otherwise we are limited to the 1.8936 area and from there a decline should set in...
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
Disclaimer: Pro Commentary, FX-Strategy, FX-Strategy Pro Charts, and any related products or services, are analytical tools only and are not intended to replace individual research. The information provided here should not be relied on as a substitute for extensive independent research before making your trading/investment decisions. FX-Strategy is merely providing this service for your general information. No representation is being made that any software or training will guarantee profits or not result in losses from trading. The views are not necessarily those of FX-Strategy, its owners, officers, agents or employees. In addition any projections or views of the market provided may not prove to be accurate. FX-Strategy will not be responsible for any losses incurred on investments made by readers and clients as a result of any information contained in this service. Be sure to closely read and understand the risks of foreign currency trading as described on the FX-Strategy website.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."