User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Tuesday July 28, 2009 - 12:56:56 GMT
Black Swan Capital - www.blackswantrading.com

Share This Story:
| | Email

When China Comes “Unhinged” ...

Key News
• Deutsche Bank Profit Rises 68%; Shares Drop as Loan-Loss Provisions Surge  (Bloomberg)
• BP Profit Drops 53% as Company Sees Little Evidence of Recovery in Demand (Bloomberg)
• South Africa's Unemployment Rate Increases to 23.6% as Zuma Faces Protests (Bloomberg)
• Mark Hulbert: Insiders have quickened the pace of their selling (MarketWatch)

Quotable
“It is the mark of an educated mind to be able to entertain a thought without accepting it.”

       Aristotle

FX Trading – When China Comes “Unhinged” ...

Global rebalancing is happening, like it or not.

The question is: how will the global economy react when China becomes unhinged? That’s exactly what Jeremy Grantham is calling for; and he expects it could really take market players by surprise. Sound familiar. [This was the key topic of Jack’s recent speech in Vancouver at the Agora Financial Symposium.]

The policy of China’s government is bordering on ‘grow at any cost’; and it could really end up costing a lot. Officially they’ve said monetary policy will remain loose ... and it seems the [mostly state-owned] banks are more than willing to keep the juices flowing as long as Daddy Government keeps flashing the green light.

China was shooting for loan growth of around $5 trillion in all of 2009. Well, they achieved that ... and then some, seeing loan growth hit levels more than 47% higher than full-year expectations in just the first half! The $7.3 trillion worth of new loans in the first half of 2009 actually amounted to triple what was done in the same period last year.

And did I mention that global rebalancing is happening?

That throws a big heaping, albeit it largely ignored, pile of risk onto this surging loan growth in China. This flow of credit is doing a heck of a job at boosting stock prices and global recovery sentiment, but is it boosting legitimate recovery potential?

Beating a dead horse, I know, China’s export market is still struggling as buyers in the US and Europe have taken an extended break from their old consumption habits. China’s imports are still struggling as a direct result of slumping demand for its goods. Domestic demand isn’t exactly where it needs to be and China won’t be able to throw another 25% of GDP worth of stimulus at the issue – it’s just not feasible.

Yes, stocks in China have roughly doubled since bottoming out in 2008. Bets are high that stock market wealth will buffer the financial position of the Chinese. But that can come unglued rather quickly as we’ve all come to know.

If positive signs – real, healthy economic progress – don’t surface anytime soon, then China’s going to be a prime candidate for major disappointment. There’s a lot riding on their stimulus efforts – fiscally and monetarily, assuming there is a difference when it comes to China. They’re running the risk of a major ugly combination forming to down them at a time when global recovery is still teetering on the edge. Asset bubbles and bad loans are a nasty duo, if I remember correctly.

As a side note, a radio news anchor reported that it’s expected to be determined speculation was a large driver of sharp swings in oil prices ... and not supply/demand fundamentals. Prices of commodities moving based on unsubstantiated expectations? You don’t say?

Maybe it’s time to wonder how the world might handle a China disappointment. One would think risk appetite would fade as it’s become a major belief that China is the leader to pull the rest of the world out of recession. It seems emerging markets, commodities and commodity currencies would feel some immediate pain. And then the other major currencies may be scrutinized if the US dollar catches a risk bid -- it’s a nasty, relative game we play.

(Chart unavailable in text format.)

Optimism is building again around US recovery potential. Wouldn’t that be funny if the US stabilizes and China becomes unhinged? Technically speaking, the US dollar is on the edge again; can it bounce back and find a legitimate reason to strengthen? Can China?

 

John Ross Crooks III
Black Swan Capital LLC, www.blackswantrading.com

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 15 December 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Thu 14 Dec
23:50 JP- Tankan Survey

Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP
Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account
Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP
Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes
Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --23:50-- JP- Tankan Survey
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105