User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Wednesday July 29, 2009 - 10:37:22 GMT
Trade the News Staff - www.global-view.com/forex-services/TTN/

Share This Story:
| | Email

Forex Blog - European Market Update: ECB, Bundesbank and IFO note risk that banks could choke recovery

Today 05:59am EST/09:59am GMT

European Market Update: ECB, Bundesbank and IFO note risk that banks could choke recovery

 

*** ECONOMIC DATA ***

- (JP) Japan Jul Small Business Confidence: 41.1v 38.0 prior

- (FR) Jun Producer Prices M/M: 0.6% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -8.7% v-8.6%e

- (HU) Hungary Jun Unemployment Rate: 9.6% v 9.8%e

- (HU) Hungary Jun Producer Prices M/M: -0.1% v -2.0% prior; Y/Y: 6.6% v 6.8%e

- (SP) Spain Jun Retail Sales Y/Y: -3.0%v -7.8% prior; Retail Sales Adj Y/Y: -4.3% v-5.9%e;

- (GE) German July CPI - Saxony: M/M: 0.0% v 0.2% prior; Y/Y: -0.6% v 0.1% prior

- (IT) Italy July Business Confidence: 71.7v 70.0e; Retailers' Confidence: 98.9 v 98.5 prior; Services Survey: -13 v -11 prior

- (GE) German July CPI - Hesse: M/M: -0.2% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: -0.9% v -0.3% prior

- (GE) German July CPI - Brandenburg: M/M: 0.0% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: -0.6% v -0.1% prior

- ECB Q2 Lending Survey: Banks tightened 2Q credit rules less sharply compared to 1Q

- (GE) German July CPI - North Rhine West: M/M: -0.2% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: -0.7% v 0.1% prior

- (UK) Jun Net Consumer Credit: £0.1B v £0.3Be; Net Lending: £0.3B v £0.6Be

- (UK) Jun Mortgage Approvals: 47.6K v 47.0Ke

- (UK) Jun Final M4 Money Supply M/M: -0.2% v -0.2% prior; Y/Y: 13.8% v 14.2% prior

- (IC) Iceland July CPI M/M: 0.2% v 1.4% prior; Y/Y: 11.3% v 12.2% prior

- (SA) South Africa Jun CPI (all items) M/M: 0.4% v 0.6%e; Y/Y: 6.9% v 7.2%e

- (GE) German July CPI - Baden Weurttemberg: M/M: -0.1% 0.5% prior; Y/Y: -0.6% v 0.1% prior

- (MA) Malaysia Central bank interest rate decision: Expected to hold its overnight rate at 2.0%

- (GE) German July CPI - Bavaria: M/M: 0.0% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: -0.2% v 0.1% prior



*** SPEAKERS/FIXED INCOME/FX/COMMODITIES/ERRATUM ***

- European equity markets opened today's session on rocky footing. A last minute downward surge seen just before the close of trading in mainland China followed swirling speculation that Chinese authorities may seek to intervene to cool off rapidly overheating equity markets (and presumably avoid the 4,500pt slide seen 2007-08 on the Shanghai Comp), pushing European and US equity futures lower. Today also saw the massively oversubscribed A share placement of China Construction Bank (H listing 3311.HK) which printed 4B shares in furious trading. On top of this equity sentiment, European corporate earnings moved into top gear, with quarterly results from the likes of ArcelorMittal [MT.NV], Peugeot [UG.FR], Bayer [BAY.GE], SAP [SAP.GE], Banco Santandar [SAN.SP], Sanofi-aventis [SAN.FR], Bayer [BAY.GE] and BG [BG.UK]. While some large names such as BG and ArcelorMittal missed expectations and have traded to the downside, the overall earnings sentiment has continued to be better than the low analyst expectations. This sentiment, in addition to the positive push seen following yesterday's negative close figures rallied equity markets. Equities moved higher on this motivation and a recovery in
Asia with European markets broadly moving through the unchanged mark and into positive territory by 3:30EST. Equities continued their climb through 3:00EST and 4:00EST as data sets and German state CPI's failed to rock the boat. Sector movement is dominated by earnings results with utility and financial names outperforming. On the back of interest in earnings related names, volumes on the CAC and DAX are coming in well ahead of their moving averages with only the FTSE underperforming and coming in slightly light.



- In individual equities: ArcelorMittal [MT.NV] Reports Q2 Net loss $792M v loss $309.3Me, Rev $15.2B v $14.9Be. Guides Q3 EBITDA between $1.4-$1.8B v $1.9Be. Shipments of 17.0M tons (+6% q/q). CEO: The first six months of the year have been some of the most challenging the steel industry has ever experienced. Operating in such a difficult environment. SAP [SAP.GE] Reports Q2 Net €473M v €430.6Me,, R €2.56B v €2.63Be. Guides FY09 Rev -6% to -4% y/y (implies €8.10-8.27B v €11.2Be) Op margin 25.5-27.0% v 24.5-25.5% prior. Q2 Op Margin 27.7% Vs 24.4% y/y. CEO: While the operating environment remains difficult, we are beginning to have improved visibility into the second half of the year. Sanofi-aventis [SAN.FR] Reports Q2 Net €2.27B v €2.06Be, Rev €7.44B v €7.22Be. Guides FY09 Net +10% y/y v +7% prior guidance. Seeks to achieve at least the same level of sales in 2013 compared to 2008 before any significant external growth opportunities. Banco Santander [SAN.SP] Reports H1 Net €4.5B v €4.3Be, Net Interest Income £12.7B + 18.1% y/y. Bad loans ratio 2.82% v 2.49% q/q. Core Capital 7.5% v 7.3% q/q. Tier 1 Capital Ratio: 9.4%, BIS Basel II 13.8%. Bayer [BAY.GE] Reports Q2 Net €532M v €511.5Me, Rev €8.01B v €7.93Be. Guides FY09 Rev €31.0-32.0B v €31.51Be (Prior view was €32.0B). Guides FY09 CAPEX1.4B. Peugeot [UG.FR] Reports H1 Net loss €962M v loss €1.01Be, Rev €23.5B v €23.93Be. Expect European car market to recover towards the end of 2010. Expect European car market to decline 12% y/y v prior expectation of decline 20% y/y in 2009. Guides 2009 Op loss at €1-2B. BG [BG.UK] Reports Q2 Net (ex items) £507M v £501Me, Rev £2.32B v £3.08Be. Exploration & Production volumes increased 7% year-on-year. Interim dividend of 5.62 pence per share (+20% y/y). Cadbury [CBRY.UK] Reports H1 Adj Pretax £262M v £260Me, Rev £2.88B v £2.75Be. - Reaffirms FY09 Rev at lower end of +4-6% v (implying £5.62-5.72B v £5.95Be). Easy Jet [EZJ.UK] Provides interim statement: Reports Q3 Rev £721M (+12% y/y). Revenue per seat increased by 10.9% y/y. STM Microelectronics [STM.FR] Reports Q2 -$0.36 v -$0.32e, R$1.99B v $1.84Be. Guides Q3 Rev $2.07-2.27B v $2.02Be. Q2 gross margin 31% (+/- 2 percentage points) v 26.1% q/q. Morphosys [MOR.GE] Reports H1 Net profit €5.0M v €4.5Me, Rev €37.9M v €37.7Me. Reaffirms financial guidance for 2009. Guides FY09 Operating profit of €8M-11M v €13.0Me, Rev €80-85M v €82.1Me. Infineon [IFX.GE] Reports Q3 Net loss €23M v Loss €47Me, Rev €845M v €830Me. Guides Q4 group revenues to grow sequemntially above Q3 (implying above €845M v €886Me) , company anticipates the revenue increase to be driven in particular by the segments ATV and IMM. Guides FY09 depreciation and amortization to exceed the previous forecast level of €500M. InBev [ABI.BE] CVC Capital has bid $2.3B for various European operations owned by the company - WSJ. The article adds that other companies remain interested in the assets and the auction is continuing. Monday was the deadline for initial bids. Akaza Nobel [AKZA.NV] Reports Q2 Net €155M v €123.9Me, Rev €3.67B v €3.58Be. CEO: In March, we saw early indications that markets may be stabilizing and we have seen that trend continue into the second quarter. However, this gradual stabilization is at significantly lower levels than 2008. With the exception of some emerging markets, we see little significant recovery of growth. Due to the continuing economic uncertainty, forward visibility still remains limited. Randstad [RAND.NV] Reports Q2 Net €11.6M v €33Me, Rev €2.99B v €3.04Be. Remains to early to declare that recovery has begun. States that many operations in its professional units are continuing to shrink. Both US and EU markets for staffing have shown some signs of stabilization. Nestle [NESN.SZ] To commence further CHF10B share buyback following H1 earnings as part of original CHF25B repurchase plan. Announces the completion of CHF15B in share buybacks. Both programs part of targeted CHF25B buyback operation. Luxottica [LUX.IT] Reports Q2 Net €115.7M v €113Me, Rev €1.4B v €1.4Be. Seeing improvements in
Europe, with North America stable.



- Speakers: German Bundesbank stated that German banks tighten credit mildly in Q2 ECB quarterly lending report noted that banks tightened 2Q credit rules less sharply compared to 1Q. This was the eighth straight quarter that banks tightened their lending standards, but the degree of tightening slowed significantly|| German IFO stated that bank lending grew more restrictive in July across the economy. German IFO: Bank lending more restrictive in July, restrictive lending seen across the economy. Germany's DIW lowered its 2009 GDP view for Germany to -6.4% from -4.9% prior and 2010 GDP lowered to +0.5% from +1.0% prior. Iut saw slightly negative growth rate in Q2 with positive growth rates in the second half of 2009. German economic recovery will be very modest SNB Jordan commented that he saw signs of economic stabilization overseas which might mean
Switzerland has seen its bottom. The CHF currency intervention has been effective to date and would perform more intervention if needed. SNB in position strength versus market and does not have to neutralize extension of monetary base Ukraine PM stated that she expected a $3.3B loan from IMF this week|| Turkish Central Banker Yilmaz noted that its economic recovery would be slow and gradual. The central bank lowered its view on inflation with end-2009 period seen at 5.9%. He noted that core indicators point to slower inflation. Loans to companies are growing but that its jobless rate would remain high. Thus he foresees addition measured interest rate cuts. Lastly he stated that continuation of single digit interest rates is possible only with fiscal discipline



- In Currencies: Risk aversion hit the market ahead of the European market as
China equity markets slip deep into negative territory. Rumors circulated that two Chinese State banks might curb loan growth and month-end flow sent the Shanghi Composite down 7% from 3,3350 level to 3,175 before recovering. The EUR/USD tested 1.4111 before stabilizing in the mid-1.41 neighborhood. Commodities were also lower as oil tumbled over $1.50 to 65.50/barrel and metal following in suit. The AUD/USD dipped back below the 0.82 level while USD/CAD probed towards the 1.09 area. EUR/CHF tested the 1.5250 level after SNB's Jordan noted that currency interventions have been effective so far. The SNB member noted that it would continue to intervene to fight a rise in the CHF versus the EUR if necessary. The JPY was softer against the major pairs but continue to stay within its weekly range thus far. USD/JPY holding below the 95.00 level.



- In Energy/commodities: IEA analyst: Evidence suggests oil prices reached a floor at $50- $60/bbl and doubts that OPEC would enact large output cuts at its Sept meeting Japan July 25 crude stocks 16.3M kiloliters v 16.2M prior; Gasoline 2.1M kiloliters v 2.2M prior Nippon Oil [5001.JP] Reported Q1 Net ¥28.5B versus ¥17.0B estimates, Rev ¥1.24T compared to estimates ¥2.27T. Guided FY2010 Net profit ¥76B (had seen ¥80B), Op Profit ¥159B (had seen ¥176B), ¥5.76T (had seen ¥5.53T)



- In Fixed Income Supply: Gilt markets were unmoved following a substandard auction this morning. The sale of £5B 2014's was covered a below average 1.97 times, with an above average yield tail of 1.4bps, and with UK debt underperforming on a cross markets basis throughout the session some indigestion was already priced in. Treasuries have managed to remain in positive territory across the curve ahead of the Treasury's 5y Note auction, whilst September Bunds are hovering around the unchanged mark at the time of writing. European Perhiperal government bond markets firmed up following Moody's affirmation of Spain's Aaa rating, with the Spanish 10y improving by some 3bps following the announcement and 10 BTP's firmer by about 2bps versus Bunds, despite a deluge of supply this week



*** NOTES ***

- China's PBOC's Zhou: Uncertainty remains on economic growth; inflation expectations can be managed by the Fed

- New Zealand Business Outlook +18.7% versus +5.5% in June.

- ECB's Papademos: No reason to withdraw liquidity in immediate future. Will be easy when time is right. Will be announce well in advance. Rate hikes could but need not coincide with withdrawal of liquidity

- Japan Retail Sales -3.0% y/y versus -2.5% estimate; 10th consecutive monthly decline

- Chatter focused on China in early European trading. Tariffs being introduced, lending to slow, money velocity slowing, and commodity stockpiles are around sufficient levels

- ECB notes some improvement in Q2 lending but expects further declines in Q3; German Bundesbank and German IFO saw same outlook; Conclusion: warns of risk that banks could choke recovery



***Looking Ahead***

- (PD) Polish Central Bank interest rate decision: Consensus expectation is for the base Rate to remain at the 3.50% level

- (PD) Polish Jun Retail Sales M/M: No estimate versus -1.1% prior; Y/Y: No estimate versus -2.3% prior

- 7:00 (US) MBA Mortgage Applications: No estimate versus 2.8% prior

- 8:30 (US) Jun Durable Goods Orders: -0.6% expected versus 1.8% prior; Durables Ex Transportation: 0.0% expected versus 1.1% prior

- 9:00 (BE) Belgium Q2 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: No estimate versus -1.7% prior; Y/Y: No estimate versus -3.1% prior

- 9:30 (BR) Brazil Jun Nominal Budget Balance (BRL): No estimate versus -11.5B prior; Primary Budget: 4.1B expected versus 1.1B prior; Net debt to GDP ratio: 42.9% expected versus 42.55 prior

- (GE) German July Consumer Price Index: M/M: 0.2% versus 0.4% prior; Y/Y: -0.3% versus 0.1% prior

- (GE) German July CPI EU-Harmonized: M/M: 0.2% versus 0.4% prior; Y/Y: -0.4% versus 0.0% prior

- 14:00 (US) Fed Beige Book

 

Legal disclaimer and risk disclosure

All information provided by Trade The News (a product of Trade The News, Inc. "referred to as TTN hereafter") is for informational purposes only. Information provided is not meant as investment advice nor is it a recommendation to Buy or Sell securities. Although information is taken from sources deemed reliable, no guarantees or assurances can be made to the accuracy of any information provided. 1. Information can be inaccurate and/or incomplete 2. Information can be mistakenly re-released or be delayed, 3. Information may be incorrect, misread, misinterpreted or misunderstood 4. Human error is a business risk you are willing to assume 5. Technology can crash or be interrupted without notice 6. Trading decisions are the responsibility of traders, not those providing additional information. Trade The News is not liable (financial and/or non-financial) for any losses that may arise from any information provided by TTN. Trading securities involves a high degree of risk, and financial losses can and do occur on a regular basis and are part of the risk of trading and investing.

 

 

 

 

Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!

The Amazing Trader includes:
  • Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
  • Live trading strategy sessions.
  • Market Updates with Trading Tools.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader


Trading Ideas for 11 December 2017

Register for the Amazing Trader

1.

Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Tue 12 Dec
09:30 GB- CPI
10:00 GB- ZEW Survey
13:30 US- PPI
Wed 13 Dec
00:30 AU- Employment
09:30 GB- Unemployment
13:30 US- CPI
15:30 US- EIA Crude
19:00 US- Fed Decision
Thu 14 Dec
07:30 CH- SNB Decision
All Day- Global- flash PMIs
12:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
12:45 EZ- ECB Decision
13:30 US- Retail Sales
13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
14:45 US- Industrial Production

Forex Trading Outlook


Potential Trading Opportunities

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Mediun Tue--10:00 GMT-- DE- ZEW. Second Tier Sentiment Survey
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Tue--13:30 GMT-- US- PPI

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium Wed--09:30 GMT-- GB- Employment
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Wed--13:30 GMT-- US- CPI
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed--15:30 GMT-- US- EIA Crude
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: High Wed--19:00 GMT-- US- Fed Decision


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Thu --00:30 GMT-- AU- Employment
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium- Thu --All day-- global- flash PMIs
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --07:30-- CH- Swiss National Bank Decision
  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Thu --09:30-- GB- Retail Sales
John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Daily Trading Chart Points Updated

EXCLUSIVE: Global-View Free Forex Database updated




TRADER ADVOCACY ARTICLES

Trader's Advocate Articles..

pic

Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

 
Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map


Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog

Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.

 

WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105