Monday January 31, 2005 - 09:28:57 GMT
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Forex Morning Meeting - European Session, 31/01/2005
Good morning everyone from FXstreet.com. The Crude oil is trading around the $46.5 level, slipping more and proving the $50 barrier to be a top for the moment. In the US stock markets, the Dow Jones Industrial Average lost some more ground to close around 10.470.
Forex Technicals at a glance
Euro/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.3015 level. Nothing dramatically happened with respect to the single currency. It keeps threating to test the trendline around 1.2850 today, but first it has to break below the 50% fibo level around 1.2940. The 20-day moving average has halted the rebound so far and my H&S theory has not yet proven either to be correct or incorrect, time will tell very soon.
Moving averages overview : EUR has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2537. We have a bearish cross from the 2 shorter mving averages, with the 20-day crossing down the 50-day. Therefore, and from a moving averages point of view, short positions are preferred, which should and are eventually yielding some.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator): EUR Negative (signaled short on december 31, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2 : EUR Neutral.
Gbp/Usd : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.8835 level. The british pound is still holding above the 20-day moving average and its current rebound has created a new upward trendline, which today lays mroe or less around 1.87. On the upside, pair didn’t touch, but went close to, the current downtrend line and it is currently moving south again. If we draw a parallel line for the current downtrend, we find it around 1.83, where some major levels arise, so the possibility gains momentum but a break of the 20-day moving average is needed for that to become a real possibility.
Moving averages overview : GBP has its 200-day moving average today at 1.8381. We have the 20-day moving average cross the 50-day on the down for some time now. Pair is above the 20-day, and it is currently trading between them.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : GBP Neutral. Indicators watch-level 2: GBP Positive, showing some strength for the currency for some time now.
Usd/Chf : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 1.1915 level. The USD is again trying to attempt, breach, and consolidate above the 50% fibo level around 1.1960, which to me holds the key for further moves. Pair looks good technically and while moving above its 20-day moving average it also looks pretty solid. If we try to paint “fibo velocity lines” we broke to the downside the first one but we may be creating the second one now, time will tell.
Moving averages overview : USD has its 200-day moving average today at 1.2264. The 20-day holds above the 50-day after the bullish cross a few days ago. Pair is trading above them both.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : USD Bullish (signaled long on december 30, 2004). Indicators watch-level 2: USD Neutral.
Eur/Gbp : At the time of this writing, the pair is trading around the 0.691 level. The pair is unable to regain the uptrend line and its bearishness looks quite solid now. It should regain, as stated in previous reports, the 0.6950 level to negate the current view and add some momentum to the upside.
Moving averages overview : pair has its 200-day moving average at 0.6814 today. The pair is below both its 50-day moving average and its 20-day one, and they are just about to make a bearish cross.
Indicators watch : Indicators watch-level 1 (signal generator) : EUR negative (signaled short on january, 10). Indicators Wacth-level 2 : EUR Neutral.
Indicators watch-Level 1 : Trend indicators Direction, providing some useful investment information.
Indicators watch-Level 2 : Momentum Indicators Direction (working in pairs), providing current market sentiment for the instrument.
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