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Friday July 31, 2009 - 10:45:00 GMT
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Forex Blog - European Market Update: Euro-Zone June unemployment beats estimates, but remains at decade high; Sweden's GDP moves out of negative territory

Today 05:47am EST/09:47am GMT

European Market Update: Euro-Zone June unemployment beats estimates, but remains at decade high; Sweden's GDP moves out of negative territory



- (GE) German Jun Nominal Wholesale Sales Y/Y: -9.1%; Real Wholesale Sales Y/Y: -17.2%

- (SP) Spain May Current Account: -€4.99B v -€3.5B prior

- (CZ) Jun Preliminary Industrial output Y/Y: -12.3% v -17.0%e

- (TH) Thailand Jun Total Trade Balance: $939M v $2.3B prior; Current Account: $477.0M v $783Me

- (TH) Thailand Jun Manufacturing Production Y/Y: -7.8% v -9.5%e

- (SW) Sweden Q2 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: 0.0% v -0.4%e; Y/Y: -6.2% v -6.7%e

- (NO) Norway May AKU Unemployment Rate: 3.1% v 3.2%e

- (NO) Norway Jun Credit Indicator Growth: 6.5% v 7.1%e

- (IT) Italy Jun PPI M/M: 0.5% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -7.2% v -7.5%e

- (HK) Hong Kong Jun Gov't Monthly Budget: -10.6B v -10.4B prior

- (EU) Euro-Zone Jul CPI estimate: -0.6% v -0.4%e

- (EU) Euro-Zone Jun Unemployment: 9.4% v 9.7%e, highest level since May 1999

- (IT) Italy Jul Preliminary CPI (NIC incl Tobacco) M/M: 0.0% v 0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.0% v 0.1%e

- (IT) Italy Jul Preliminary CPI (EU Harmonized) M/M: -1.2% v -0.7%e; Y/Y: -0.1% v 0.4%e

- (SZ) Swiss Jul KOF Leading Indicator: -0.99v -1.45e


- In equities news overnight: In equities: Equity markets in Europe entered the last trading day of July on a negative footing. This position was in disregard to yesterday's positive run and the similar sentiments in NY and
Asia. End of the month flows were joined with continued equity pressure following a further corporate earnings flow. Today's earnings included large cap names: British Airways [BAY.UK], Air France [AF.FR], Anglo American [AAL.UK], Vedanta [VED.UK], ENEL [ENEL.IT], ENI [ENI.IT], Total [FP.FR], Michelin [ML.FR] and Lafarge [LG.FR]. Earnings sentiment again proved mixed with the heavy oil names disappointing and trading to the downside. While both BA and Air France reported below expectations, continued losses seen at Air France drove those shares lower while BA traded higher. Guidance out of Lafarge, lowering its cement volume output for 2009, had bearish effects for the broad sector as the effects of lower construction and building projects rippled through the market. Following the equity open, shares pushed higher, through the unchanged mark and to their best trading range levels by 3:30EST. This movement was sharply cut short by better than expected preliminary Q2 GDP out of Sweden (the corresponding effect having a negative pull on the EUR/SEK cross). Markets looked ready to push higher at 5:00EST following the release of better than expected Euro-zone unemployment numbers, but were limited by a larger than expected decline in Euro-zone CPI. With a shortened US earnings list expected in the NY morning, markets have already begun to position themselves for the US advanced Q2 GDP release, seen at 8:30EST.

-In individual equities: Air France [AF.FR] Reports Q1 Net loss €426M v loss €202Me, Rev €5.2B v €6.5B y/y. Q1 capacity -4.7%, Load factor at 79.4% v 80.3% y/y. || Michelin [ML.FR] Reports H1 Net loss €119.0M v loss €273.3Me, Rev €7.13B v €7.1Be. || AngloAmerican [AAL.UK] Reports H1 underling Net $1.1B v $1.8Be, Rev $11.1B v $10.4Be. Net debt of $11.3 billion at
30 June 2009. || Total [FP.FR] Reports Q2 Net €1.7B v €1.7Be, R €31.4B v €27.2Be. Q2 Oil and Gas output 2.18M bpd (-7.3% y/y). || Lafarge [LG.FR] Reports Q2 Net €344M v €369Me, Rev €4.36B v €4.5Be. Based on the market situations observed in the second quarter, we have updated our outlook on volumes for the full year 2009. While the rate of decline is expected to slow in the second half of the year as compared to the first half, annual cement volumes in Lafarge's markets are expected to be down -4% to -8% overall, with significant differences between markets. || Continental [CON.GE] Supervisory board approves plans for capital increase of up to €1.5B, begins financing talks with creditors. || ENEL [ENEL.IT] Reports H1 Net €3.52B v €3.0Be, EBITDA €7.94B v €7.7Be. || ENI [ENI.IT] Reports Q2 Adj Net Profit €900M v €938Me, EBIT €2.55B v €2.5Be. ||

- Speakers: Former MOF official Sakakibara commented that opposition DPJ Bureaucrats would likely to keep overseeing FX policy if elected into power. Comments in response to the DPJ''s main campaign pledges to turn
Japan's deeply entrenched, bureaucracy-led policy-making process into one led more by politicians. || Irish Fin Min Lenihan commented that Ireland had an approximate figure of discount on loans to be taken over by 'bad banks' || Chinese Fin Ministry noted that it would adopt a US style 3 and 9 month bill auction. China previously had a mixed bid system || EU approved German state toxic asset relief program for its banking system

-In Currencies: The USD managed to recover from its Asian lows but remained mixed in its overall tone against the major pairs ahead of the US GDP data later today. Despite yesterday's IMF comment about the Euro being 'overvalued' the EUR/USD hovering around the 1.41 area for the bulk of the session today and the trend continues to post higher lows and thus potentially higher highs over the next few weeks.

- The SEK hit its best levels against the USD and Euro pairs following its better Q2 GDP data with the QoQ coming in unchanged compared to the decline of -0.4% expected. EUR/SEK tested 10.333 area while USD/SEK probed the 7.3230 level.

- Japanese economy had slipped into a record level of deflation, with core CPI falling 1.7% y/y in June. Dealers noting that the data encouraged yield-seeking investment flows out of
Japan at month-end while the global risk appetite persist for the time being. USD/JPY probing near yesterday's intra-session high of 95.79 and EUR/JPY.

- In Energy/commodities: Kuwait is said to have shut its largest Min al-Ahmadi refinery (460K bpd) due to a problem with the water cooling system ||France's Total [FP.FR] Reported Q2 Net profit of €1.7B and in-line with consensus estimates of €1.7Be. Revenues were €31.4B above €27.2B estimates. Its Q2 Oil and Gas output was 2.18M bpd (-7.3% y/y) while its refinery use rate came in at 84% versus 88% year-ago levels. The company reiterated FY09 debt to equity target levels || NYMEX Aug crude moved lower from its Asian session highs of 67.78 to by $1.50 to test $66.20 in its electronic session.

- In Fixed Income Supply: Government bonds have performed strongly this morning amidst a modest sell off in equities. Ahead of US GDP reports there was little market reaction to the contradiction of better than expected Euro-zone unemployment and worse than expected CPI estimate .
UK and German yield curves are in bull flattening mode tracking yesterdays move in Treasuries. Gilts have lead the way up on a cross market basis, with the yield on 10y hitting intraday lows below 3.88%. Three month Euribor fixed at a fresh record low of 0.893%

*** NOTES ***

- Japanese economy had slipped into a record level of deflation

- Swedish Q2 GDP beats estimates with its 0.0% q/q reading

- China's Shangahi Composite ends July up 15% m/m, largest monthly gain since Aug 2008; Nikkei stock average's at a 10-month closing level of 10,113

***Looking Ahead***CAD and US GDP data to highlight the morning; Chevron to report earnings

- (BE) Belgium Jun Unemployment rate: % v 8.2% prior

- 8:00 (SA) South Africa Jun Trade Balance (ZAR): -1.5B expected versus +2.0B prior

- 8:30 (CA) Canada May Gross Domestic Product M/M: -0.35 versus -0.1% prior

- 8:30 (US) Q2 Advance GDP Annualized: -1.5% versus -5.5% prior; Personal Consumption: -0.5% expected versus 1.4% prior

- 8:30 (US) Q2 GDP Price Index: 1.0% expected versus 2.8% prior; Core PCE Q/Q: 2.3% expected versus 1.6% prior

- 8:30 (US) Q2 Employment Cost Index: 0.35 versus 0.3% prior

- 9:00 (BE) Belgium Q2 Preliminary GDP Q/Q: No estimate versus -1.7% prior; Y/Y: No estimate versus -3.1% prior

- 9:45 (US) Jul Chicago Purchasing Manager: 43.0 expected versus 39.9 prior

- 10:00 (US) Jul NAPM-Milwaukee: 52.0 expected versus 50.0 prior

- 10:00 (TU) Turkey Jun Trade balance: -4.8B expected versus -3.5B prior


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