Friday July 31, 2009 - 11:48:38 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day : 31-Jul-2009 - 1140 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.0834/38...At an intermediate Support
R: 1.0919 / 1.0980 / 1.1095
S: 1.0834-29 / 1.0808 / 1.0757
USD-CHF has meandered sideways in a narrow range of 1.0890 and 1.0836 for the Asian session. The pair is currently at the Support of 1.0834-29, break of which can push the prices down to a resistance-turned-Support of 1.0808. These 2 Support levels are also the 89 period exponential MA of the Highs and Lows in the 1-hour charts. Break of this band at 1.0808 on the downside will confirm weakness which can lead to 1.0757 levels.
The region 1.0919-35 where the most recent High was formed will continue to be an important Resistance, surge from which can lead to 1.0980 levels.
GBP-USD @ 1.6548/50...Might see a break above 1.6600
R: 1.6600-20 / 1.6704 / 1.6877
S: 1.6510-00 / 1.6465-50 / 1.6410-00
Cable traded in a very narrow range of 1.6525-6575 during the day and is still trading within that range. As the pair has not shown much move on either side, our view continues to remain the same as mentioned in the morning. If the pair continues to trade above 1.6550 we may see a rise towards 1.6600, the upper end of the range (1.6200-6600) in which the pair has been trading for some time. Remember as mentioned in the morning We see more chances of a break above 1.6600, the upper end of the range (1.6200-6600) for the following reasons.
1) The pair has been trading above 1.6300 since 21-Jul.
2) The pair has not seen a strong break below the 21-DMA (currently at 1.6373) for the last one week.
A break above 1.6600 might see a rise towards 1.6700-6750. Note that the projected Max-High for the day is 1.6704. However if the pair is to retain the range, we might see a pull back from 1.6600.
On the downside Support is seen at 1.6500, a break below which might pull the pair down towards 1.6400-6375.
AUD-USD @ 0.8283/85...Bullish but losing Momentum
R: 0.8303 / 0.8336-46 / 0.8398
S: 0.8257-47 / 0.8204-192 / 0.8119-11
Aussie beautifully obeyed the 1st Support of 0.8257 and 1st Resistance of 0.8303 as mentioned in the morning edition by making a Low at 0.8256 and High at 0.8304 for today. The pair has been moving up after making the Low of 0.8256 to retest Resistances of 0.8303. A break above 0.8303 may lead to 0.8336-46, which is a very strong Resistance zone potent enough to end the rally in Aussie.
On the downside, Aussie is protected by Support of 0.8257-47, which if broken can shove the prices down to 0.8204-8192 levels.
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