Â·Bank of England should continue to purchase gilts
Whereas the upbeat quarterly figures are sparking fresh
waves of speculation on US stock markets in particular, they have had little
impact on the forex markets so far. Although favourable equity markets usually
tend to boost EUR-USD, the forex market has just been treading water: EURUSD started
the week at 1.42, and briefly touched 1.43, only to come under pressure on Wednesday, dropping to almost 1.40. This movement was
presumably triggered by the Chinese stock market plunge after reports (which have since been
denied) that China could be set to tighten monetary policy. This made little
impression on US and European stock markets, which began to soar in the second half of the week. As a result,
EUR-USD strengthened slightly to 1.41,
but ended the week lower than at the end of last week.
The markets are probably waiting for the spate of US data
due to be released shortly. The advance
GDP figures for Q2 will be published this Friday. The
economy does not appear to have contracted nearly as much as in catastrophic
Q1. It is uncertain, however, whether the figures have improved sufficiently to
be regarded as a real turning point. Next week, further important US indicators are on the agenda, including the ISM indices and
the labour market data. Here too, market participants are for the most part
expecting positive results, but only to the extent that the pace of decline could
have slowed down. In our view, the slower pace of decline is not enough to
justify breaking out of the trading range of the past weeks.
Next Thursday both the ECB Governing Council and the Bank of
England Monetary Policy Committee are holding their monthly meetings. The ECB
Councilâ€™s policy stance is not likely to havechanged much since the last
meeting. We are still expecting it to see growth and price risks as balanced: given
the current Eurostat figures â€“ the inflation rate has fallen to â€“0.6% in July â€“
the pace of inflation could turn out to be somewhat lower than forecast in the
last projections. Furthermore, monetary development, particularly dwindling
lending activity, proves that there are no concrete price risks in the medium
term. It looks as though GDP will turn out to be more or less as projected in
June; however, in the meantime, the global economic climate has become slightly
less hostile. On the whole, the ECB is unlikely to change its assessment of the
The Bank of England is faced with more challenging choices.
These do not involve the interest
rate decision. Changing the bank rate is not on the agenda
for the time being. However, the BoE
has now exhausted its financial resources for the purchase
of government bonds, Â£125bn. The
MPC will have to decide on Thursday whether to stock up the
programme to Â£150bn. The targeted purchase of government bonds which was
started in March, was the most important element of the BoEâ€™s quantitative
easing measures. If the BoE decides not to continue with it, the market would probably
interpret this as an initial exit step, i.e. as a positive sign as to the state
of the UK economy. This would presumably boost the pound, at least
We see a good chance of the BoE continuing with the
programme â€“ perhaps on an extended timescale. At â€“0.8% quarter-on-quarter,
growth in the second quarter was disappointing. The year-on-year decline of â€“5.6%
illustrates the extent of the collapse. The housing market is just beginning to
bottom out, and credit flow is amere trickle. All in all, the UK economy is still so fragile that a continuation of the
purchasing programme would be justified.
Rieke +49 69 718-4114
Grabbe / Klaus NÃ¤fken
report has been prepared by BHF-BANK Aktiengesellschaft on behalf of itself and
its affiliated companies (together "BHF-BANK Group") solely for the
information of its clients. The information and opinions in this document are
based on sources believed to be reliable and acting in good faith, but no
representation or warranty, express or implied, is made by any member of the
BHF-BANK Group as to their accuracy, completeness or correctness. Opinions and
recommendations are given in good faith but without legal responsibility and
are subject to change without notice. The information does not constitute
advice or personal recommendation, for which the duty of suitability would be
owed, but may facilitate your own investment decision. Moreover, you should
seek your own advice as to the suitability of an investment matter mentioned
herein. Investors are reminded that the price of securities and the income from
them can go down as well as up and that the past performance of an investment
or a market is not necessarily indicative for future results. This document is
for information purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or
their securities mentioned herein are not intended to be complete, and this
document is not, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation
of any offer to buy the securities mentioned in it. BHF-BANK Group and its
officers and employees may have a long or short position or engage in
transactions in any of the securities mentioned in this document, or in any
related securities. This publication must not be distributed in the United
rights reserved. Please mention source when quoting from it.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
Mon 19 Mar 2018 Tue 20 Mar 2018 AA 9:30 GB- CPI A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 21 Mar 2018 AA 03:00 AU- Employment AA 9:30 GB- Employment A 12:30 US- Current Account AA 14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A A18:00 US- Fed Rate Decision A 21:00 NZ- RBNZ Rate Decision Thu 22 Mar 2018 AA All Day flash PMIs AA 9:30 GB- Retail Sales AA 12:00 GB- Bank Of England Decision A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless Fri 23 Mar 2018 AA 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales A 12:30 US- Durable Goods A 14:00 US- New Homes Sales
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.