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Tuesday August 4, 2009 - 10:05:38 GMT
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Forex Blog - European market Update: European banks show mixed results; JPY firms on potential post-election FX reserve policy shift

Today 05:58am EST/09:58am GMT

European market Update: European banks show mixed results; JPY firms on potential post-election FX reserve policy shift



- (NO) Norway Jul PMI: 49.7 v 49.5e

- (SP) Spain Jul Net Unemployment: -20.8K v -10.1Ke

- (SZ) Swiss Jul CPI M/M: -0.7% v -0.5%e; Y/Y: -1.2% v -1.1%e

- (UK) BOE: Q2 M4 ex intermediate OFCs +3.1% y/y

- (UK) Jul PMI Construction: v 45.0e

- (EU) Euro-Zone Jun PPI M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -6.6% v -6.6%e

- (SA) South Africa Jul Naamsa Vehicle Sales Y/Y: -27.4% v -23.7% prior

- (GE) Reportedly German July car sales seen +30% y/y, YTD+26% y/y


- In equities news overnight: Following yesterday's printing of 2009 equity highs on the CAC, DAX and FTSE, markets opened today's session on a mixed note before falling below the unchanged mark and broadly negative. In a combination of equity run up exhaustion and disappointing earnings, equities trended lower through the 3:00EST and 4:00EST hour. Continued disappointing earnings, topped by net money outflows of CHF39.5B at Swiss bank UBS [UBSN.SZ] underlined continued turbulence at the troubled banking group. Disappointing earnings out of Beirersdorf [BEI.GE] moved that name to the bottom of the DAX, while y/y declines and an expected dividend cut at Legal and General [LGEN.UK] dragged that name to the bottom of the FTSE. Banking sector earnings out of BNP [BNP.FR] and Standard Charter [STAN.UK] were better than expected, but a planned capital increase at Standard moved those shares lower from the open. BMW's [BMW.GE] CFO commentary following earnings that the environment in 2009 will remain extremely harsh and competitive furthered declines in that name and the broader luxury auto sector just past 4:15EST. Equities continued their lower trend ahead of the 5:00EST release of Euro-zone PPI figures, despite a read ahead of expectations, negative sentiment prevailed and market hovered near their lows. Trading volume remained strong, with the CAC significantly outperforming its moving averages with high levels of interest in earnings related names.

UBS [UBSN.SZ] Reports Q2 Net loss CH1.32B (incl items) v loss CHF1.1Be, Rev CHF5.77B v CHF6.5Be; Net money outflows CHF39.5B. Overall, our outlook remains cautious, consistent with our view that economic recovery will be constrained by low credit creation and the structural weaknesses in consumers and governments balance sheets. || BNP [BNP.FR] Reports Q2 Net €1.6B v €1.7Be, Rev €9.04 v €9.4Be. Q2 ROE 9.3% v 8.8% q/q, Q2 AUM €540B v €510B q/q, Q2 Net asset inflows +€6.5B v +€13.4B q/q. || Standard Charter [STAN.UK] Reports H1 Net $1.83B v $1.62Be, Pretax $2.84B v $2.84Be, to raise £1.0B in right issue (3.5% of market cap). Tier 1 ratio 10.5%, core tier 1 ratio 7.6%. || Xstrata [XTA.UK] Reports H1 Adj Net $909M v $722Me, Rev $9.54B v $9.1Be. CEO: Merger talks with Anglo will continue; 'premium' demand does not fit current proposal -conf call. || Legal and General [LGEN.UK] Reports H1 Pretax £74M v £384M y/y, EEV Op Profit £657M v £467.0Me; Interim dividend cut to 1.1p/share. || GKN [GKN.UK] Reports H1 adjusted pre tax loss of £8M v loss £34.7Me, Rev £2.17B v £2.07Be. || RBS [RBS.UK] ANZ Confirms that it will buy select RBS units in
Asia for $550M (1.1X net book value). || Munich Re [MUV2.GE] Reports Q2 Net €691.0M v €618.0Me, Gross premiums €10.33B v €9.88Be. Guides FY09 Gross Premiums €40-42B v €39-41B prior, combined ratio at 97%. || BMW [BMW.GE] Reports Q2 Net €121M v loss €25Me, Pretax €151M v €29Me, Rev €13.0B v €12.7Be. Q2 liquidity €11.9B, Q2 vehicle sales 338.2K (-18.1% y/y). CEO: Trading environment through FY09 will be harshly competitive -conf call. Continue to see difficult trading environment in FY09 || Statoil Hydro [STL.NO] Reports Q2 Op Profit NOK24.3B v NOK28.7Be, Rev NOK104.6B v NOK105.2Be; Reiterates FY09 production forecast at 1.95M boe/d. || DSM [DSM.NV] Reports Q2 Net €10.0M v €34.0Me, Rev €1.95B v €1.9Be; Interim dividend to be unchanged. Will not provide any quantitative outlook for 2009. ||

- Speakers: Fitch commented that it was a long road to recovery for Japanese banks following Q1 results || Philippine Central Bank stated that it saw Q2 GDP growth above levels experienced in Q1. it saw 2010 inflation likely to settle in lower end of target || SNB spokesperson refused to comment on CHF price action

- In Currencies: The Dollar was trying to consolidate its recent losses and fresh 2009 lows among the European pairs in the session. EUR/USD probed both sides of the 1.44 level throughout the morning. The GBP/USD retreated from the 1.70 handle which it tested during the Asian morning.

- The JPY was broadly firmer during the European morning as continued jitters surfaced over the handling of the massive BOJ currency reserves if the DLP takes over power later this month. JPY strength attributed to comments of Japanese opposition leader in regards to the country FX reserves in which potential PM Hatoyama commented that he would decide the country's currency reserve management policy after taking power.
Japan's national elections to take place on Aug 30th.

- BoE MPC raising it's asset purchase target this week as data confirm that lending conditions remain difficult.

- In Fixed Income: European Fixed Income futures have regained losses and are higher on the day as stock markets decline. The BOE's Q2 M4 broad money supply YoY excluding holdings of intermediate other financial companies was up 3.1% versus 3.8% prior quarter. Dealers noting that the data suggests underlying development of M4, without the distortions of operations of OFCs, continue to deteriorate, which on the balance could weigh in favor of the BoE MPC raising it's asset purchase target this week as data confirm that lending conditions remain difficult.

- In Energy: IEA chief economist Birol commented in press interview that a disastrous energy crunch was looming because most of the major oil fields in the world have passed their peak production. Such an oil crunch within the next 5 years could jeopardize recovery from the global recession. Higher oil prices brought on by a rapid increase in demand and a stagnation, or even decline, in supply could derail the recovery. Many governments appeared unaware that oil was running out faster than previously predicted. Global production is likely to peak in about 10 years, which is at least a decade earlier than most had expected. || Statoil [STL.NO] Reportws Q2 Op Profit NOK24.3B below the NOK28.7B expectations. Revenues were NOK104.6B compared to the NOK105.2B estimate. The company reiterated its FY09 production forecast at 1.95M boe/d ||

*** NOTES ***

- US Treasury quarterly borrowing needs: To borrow $406B in July-Sept quarter v $515B prior estimate

- Australian central ban (RBA) talks recovery in 2010 and drops scope for further easing

- On the financial front: UBS misses on the downside. HSBC beats. Chatter that RBS might write down another $30B in loans

***Looking Ahead***US- Personal Income/PCE, Pending Homes Sales.

- - (RU) Russia Jul Consumer prices M/M: % v 0.6%e, Y/Y: % v 11.9%e: Core CPI M/M: % v 0.3%e

- 8:30 (US) Jun Personal Income: -1.0% expected versus 1.4% prior; Personal Spending: 0.35 expected versus 0.3% prior

- 8:30 (US) Jun PCE Core M/M: 0.2% expected versus 0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.7% expected versus 1.8% prior; PCE Deflator Y/Y: 0.2% expected versus 0.1% prior

- 9:30 (US) Fed's Tarullo, FDIC's Bair testify on bank regulation

- 9:30 (SI) Singapore Purchasing Managers Index: 52.0 expected versus 51.1 prior; Electronic Sector index: 55.8 expected versus 55.0 prior

- 10:00 (US) Jun Pending Home sales M/M: 0.7% expected versus 0.1% prior; Y/Y: No estimate versus 4.65 prior

- 17:00 (US) ABC Consumer Confidence: -47 expected versus -47 prior

- 19:01 (UK) Jul Nationwide Consumer Confidence: 59 expected versus 58 prior


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