Tuesday February 1, 2005 - 01:18:02 GMT
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FX-Strategy - www.fx-strategy.com
Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 1st February 2005 Price:
Resistance: 103.85 ... 104.04 ... 104.32 ... 104.75
Support....: 103.24 ... 102.96 ... 102.75 ... 102.34
Cautiously bearish but wait for break of 103.24 & 102.96
Little movement seen yesterday and the picture remains very similar with a test still possible of the 103.85-104.04 area. However, only a break of this area and above 104.32 would trigger gains up through 104.75 and onto the 105.30-42 area at least. Further resistance is also found at 105.62-94.
We still have a bearish preference but require a break below 103.48 to set up a test of the important 103.24-28 area. Once this area breaks we feel that losses can accelerate lower with next resistance at 102.96 but we feel a move down through to 102.34 should once again be seen. Next support is at the 102.67-82 lows and may stall the decline for a while.
Elliott Wave Comments:
31st January 2005
The spike down to 102.34 and reversal higher didn't help too much, keeping the Dollar within a range. However, if we are to follow the indication from the daily cycles we should be looking for 104.04-24 to provide a cap and for losses to develop that should reach the 101.67-82 area initially and later to 100.88 being the target for where Wave (c) equals Wave (a). With the depth of the Wave (b) pullback, expect Wave (iv) to be brief and shallow to be followed by a dip to 99.75 where we see a confluence of Fibonacci projections:
A Wave [v] projection of 61.8%;
A daily 161.8% projection of Wave A lower (from 114.85 to 106.99) from the 112.46 peak;
A weekly 76.4% projection of the 147.63 -> 101.22 decline from the 135.14 peak
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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