The U.S. Dollar posted a strong reversal to the upside today
following the release of a better than expected U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls
Number.The report which showed a loss
of jobs less than economists had estimated sent a signal to traders that the U.S.
may be the first major economy to recover from the recession.
Traders most likely bought the Dollar in anticipation of the
Fed announcing the end to its easy money policy and perhaps introducing an exit
strategy which includes a rate hike. The
Fed holds a two day meeting next week with an announcement due on August 12th.
Traders seemed to be buying the Dollar in anticipation of
gaining an interest rate advantage over currency markets which still have rates
at historically low levels.
The GBP USD posted a closing price reversal top on a weekly
basis which could be setting up the start of a minimum 2 to 3 week correction
of the current uptrend.Earlier in the
week, the Bank of England started the break with an announcement to add more
funds to its quantitative easing program.Todayâ€™s bullish U.S.
unemployment report helped accelerate the move to the downside.
The EUR USD also formed a weekly closing price reversal
top.Weakness started on Thursday after
the European Central Bank decided to leave rates unchanged.Todayâ€™s bullish economic news from the U.S. could be
signaling the start of rate hikes by the Fed which would tighten up the
interest rate differential between the Dollar and the Euro.
Talk of the Fed possibly hiking rates also helped the USD
JPY rally.With the Bank of Japan
expected to leave interest rates at 0.1% at next weekâ€™s meeting, a hike in
rates by the U.S.
would increase its interest rate advantage over the Japanese currency.
Speculators anticipating a recovery in the U.S. economy
and a possible end to the Fedâ€™s easy money policy helped boost the USD
CAD.Technically this pair formed a
weekly reversal bottom which should lead to a minimum 2 to 3 week correction.
Higher yielding currencies such as the NZD USD and AUD USD
finished up for the week but lower on Friday.Todayâ€™s better than expected unemployment report may be signaling a
change in U.S. interest
rates which would change the interest rate differential between the U.S. and Australia
and the U.S and New Zealand.Traders most likely lightened up their
positions in anticipation of higher yields in the U.S.
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Mon 10 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- GDP, Trade, Output Tue 11 Sep 2018 AA 08:30 GB- Employment Decision A 09:00 DE- ZEW Survey Wed 12 Sep 2018 A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 18:00 US- Beige Book Thu 13 Sep 2018 A 1:30 AU- Employment AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision AA 11:45 EZ- European Central Bank Decision A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless AA 12:30 US- CPI Fri 14 Sep 2018 A 08:30 GB- GDP AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 13:15 US- Industrial Production AA 14:00 US- prelim University of Michigan
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