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Forex Blog - European market Update: Markets continue to digest the US employment report as they await the conclusion of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday

Today 06:06am EST/10:06am GMT

European market Update: Markets continue to digest the US employment report as they await the conclusion of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday


- (IN) Jul India Local Car Sales 115.1K v 107.5K prior month

- (ID) Indonesia Q2 GDP Constant Price Q/Q: 2.3% v 2.2%e ; Y/Y: 4.0% v3.8%e

- (FI) Finland Jun Industrial Production M/M: 1.5% v 2.0%; Y/Y: -20.3% v -21.2%e

- (FI) Finland June Prelim Trade Balance: €325.0M v €80.0M prior

- (JP) Japan June Prelim Machine Tool Orders Y/Y: -72.2% v -72.8% prior

- (FR) Jul Bank of France Bus. Sentiment: 87 v 86e

- (FR) French Jun Industrial Production M/M: 0.3% v 0.2%e; Y/Y: -12.8% v -13.2%e

- (FR) French Jun Manufacturing Production M/M: 0.4% v 0.5%e ; Y/Y: -14.4% v -14.5%e

- (CZ) Czech Jul CPI M/M: -0.4% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: 0.3% v 0.6%e

- (CZ) Czech Jul Unemployment Rate 8.4% v 8.4%e

- (TU) Turkish Jun Industrial Production Y/Y: -9.7% v -12.5%e

- (DE) Danish Jun Current Account (DKK): 3.4B v 6.0B prior; Trade Balance Ex Ships: 3.6B v 3.3B prior

- (DE) Danish Jun Industrial production (Ex Ships) M/M: -5.4% v -1.5% prior; Industrial Orders (Ex Ships) M/M: -4.8% v -0.9% prior

- (DE) Danish Jul CPI M/M: -0.5% v 0.3% prior; Y/Y: 1.0% v 1.2% prior

- (DE) Danish Jul - CPI EU Harmonized MoM: -0.6% v 0.2% prior; YoY: 0.7% v 0.9% prior

- (NO) Norwegian Jul CPI M/M: -0.6% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.2% v 2.6%e

- (NO) Norwegian Jul CPI Underlying M/M: -0.6% v -0.2%e; Y/Y: 2.5% v 2.9%e

- (NO) Norwegian Jul Producer Prices incl. Oil M/M: -5.7% v 8.7% prior, Y/Y: -7.1% v 0.8% prior

- (EU) Euro-Zone Aug Sentix Investor Confidence -17.0 v -25.8e; highest reading since Aug 2008

- (IR) Irish Jun Industrial Production M/M: 9.3% v -3.6% prior,; Y/Y: 2.6% v -8.2% prior

- (LV) Latvia Q2 Advance GDP: -19.6% v 22.0%e


- In equities news overnight: Equities in Europe started off the trading week on a heavy note, moving to surrender their gains seen on Friday following the US July non-farm payroll figures. Asian trading provided mixed direction and in the absence of major corporate earnings in the pre-market, European bourses opened negative and quickly accelerated to new lows. Standout movers to the downside included Lloyds Banking Group [LLOY.UK] following press reports of a proposed secondary at as much as £15B to pay down its current gov stake, and the broader auto sector following analyst downgrades. Auto's moved lower following cuts to Daimler [DAI.GE] by Morgan Stanley and Volkswagen [VOW.GE] out of HSBC. This weight in auto's dragged the wider consumer goods sector to the bottom of the EuroStoxx50, being followed by pharma's and basic materials. Trading turnover levels fell below their moving averages on a light equity, and data session. Equity markets recovered off their lows at 4:00EST and trended higher following Asian GDP revisions to the positive side out of Goldman Sachs. At this time, Goldman Sachs raised its 2009 and 2010 GDP view for China, India and Asia ex-Japan. Into 5:00EST, bourses continued to trend off their lows but were still broadly negative with the DAX30 underperforming.

- In Specific equity news: Lloyds [LLOY.UK] Follow Up: May seek to raise £15B in a share sale (54% of market cap) - London Times. An earlier article in the London Times said the company was considering holding a rights offering aimed at lowering the government's stake in it. The earlier Times article added that Lloyds, was also considering lowering its participation level in APS scheme from the current level of £260B. The UK government holds a 43% stake in the bank. Reminder: On May 18 bank held £4B share placement (25.6% of market cap at that time) to buy back preference shares from UK gov. || Prudential [PRU.UK] Firm is planning dividend raise - Times. Article states that CEO Tucker is seeking to raise interim payout to prove the capital strength of group. Analysts see strength in group based on improving trends in Asian operations. || Morgan Sindall [MGNS.UK] Reports H1 Net £14.6M v £14.3Me, Rev £1.14B v £1.03Be. Remains confident of meeting our expectations for 2009. || Southern Cross Healthcare SCHE.UK: Provides interim statement: Reports Q3 Adj EBITDA £22.2M v £24.4M y/y, Rev £254.8M v £245.6M y/y || Publics Group [PUB.FR] MSFT to sell Razorfish unit to France's Publicis for $530M - Press . The deal is comprised of cash and 6.5M Publics Groupe treasury shares. || VW [VOW.GE] Sales Chief Wittig: 2010 expected to be a "difficult year" due to negative impact of withdrawal of govt subsidy on overall demand - Berliner Zeitung. Says German total auto sales in 2010 may decline by up to 1 million to 2.6-2.7M units. ||ArcelorMittal [MT.NV] Reportedly Mexican workers have staged strike at company owned facility

- Speakers: ECB's Liikanen commented that he expected global recovery to begin in China and India and noted that it would take time before talk of recovery can begin in Euro-zone || India Trade Minister: Stimulus measures are having an effect on exports || Chinese Premier Wen: policy direction unchanged; China to keep its proactive fiscal and accommodative monetary policy - Chinese press || Goldman Sachs raises its China 2009 GDP view to 9.4% from 8.3% prior view. || German Economic Ministry spokesman stated that there was no reason to change government's GDP growth forecast of -6.0% for 2009 || former BOE member Wadhwani warned at the weekend that the UK faces further significant challenges, with 2010 potentially more painful that 2009. || Japan's Opposition member Okada commented that currency intervention in was undesirable if not in line with fundamentals. He noted that there were limits to export led growth plans must be established and that deflation would continue to be a concern as the country lacks the necessary tools to address the issue.

- In Currencies: Overall markets trying to figure out if the USD is decoupling from the rising risk appetite them. Markets continue to digest the US employment report as they await the conclusion of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday. The USD was little changed from its opening levels in Asia. EUR/USD staying just below the 1.42 level throughout most of the European morning.

- The GBP currency continued its soft tone following's last week's quantitative easing move by the BoE. An article in today's Telegraph was also weighing on GBP sentiment as it warned that U.K. risk a Japan-style lost decade and said that the BoE will indicate a downgrade to its growth forecast and cite deflation as a significant threat. GBP/USD off around 40 pips at 1.6645 but off its session lows of 1.6611.

- the JPY a touch firmer against the other majors with USD/JPY at 97.25 and EUR/JPY holding above the 138 handle. ||

- In Fixed Income: A quiet start to what promises to be an eventful week for Government Bonds , with supply, data and Central Bank policy meetings all looming ominously. Gilts are outperforming ahead of what would have been the last week of Gilt buybacks had the BoE not decided to surprise everyone by expanding QE above and beyond expectations. Today's £1.4B in purchases are focused on the long end, however press fuelled expectations of downward revisions to the BoE's growth and inflation forecasts due later this week have driven a safe haven bid into the short end and the UK yield curve has steepened significantly as a result. The yield on the 2y Gilt has fallen over 10bps and is below 1.20% at the time of writing, its lowest level since early July. German government bonds are modeslty bid, with the yield on 10y Bund back below 3.50% following Friday's sell off. Treasuries meanwhile are lagging, with a slight bout of bear steepening. The yield on the 10y note has risen by 2.5bps to 3.875% at the time of writing

- In Energy: Iranian OPEC Gov stated that Oil prices around $70/bbl were not good, as it feeds into weaker USD. Iran sought to have OPEC act in next round of meetings to stabilize energy prices. The Gov noted that that Iran remained in full compliance with OPEC production cuts ||Gulf OPEC Official: Continuing to demand higher levels of compliance from group producers

*** NOTES ***

- Markets continue to digest the US employment report as they await the conclusion of the FOMC meeting on Wednesday

- Goldman Sachs raises its GDP forecast for both China and India

***Looking Ahead***

- No schedule US or Canadian data set for Monday

- 8:15 (SZ) Switzerland Upper House holds extraordinary session


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