FX Blog- GVI Forex Month Ahead Interest Rate Outlook for August 10, 2009
Central Bank Policy Outlook -- Key Interest Rates
Global Interest Rates
The Global-View.com Monetary Policy Outlook is prepared weekly by the trading professionals at GVI Forex. For information on the GVI Forex Service Click Here
Upcoming Central Bank Meetings -- Monetary Profiles
8/10/2009
Date
Bank
Target
GVI Forex Policy Outlook
last
11-Aug-09
BOJ
0.10%
No rate change. Quantitative Ease
unch
12-Aug-09
FED
0 to.25%
No rate change. Quantitative Ease
unch
1-Sep-09
RBA
3.00%
No rate change. Next move higher?
unch
3-Sep-09
ECB
1.00%
No rate change. little room for ease
unch
9-Sep-09
RBNZ
2.50%
No rate change. Bias lower rates.
unch
10-Sep-09
BOE
0.50%
No rate change. Quantitative Ease
unch
10-Sep-09
BOC
0.25%
BOC to hold rates unch until mid-2010
unch
17-Sep-09
SNB
0.50%
Rates near floor; Quantitative Ease
unch
8/10/2009 9:32
GMT
US
FF
implied
mtgs
Futures
implied
change
Aug 09
0.177
Aug 11
SEP09
0.50
0.01
Sep 09
0.195
Sep 22
DEC09
0.80
0.05
Oct 09
0.205
n/a
MAR10
1.22
0.10
Nov 09
0.245
Nov 4
JUN10
1.69
0.14
Dec 09
0.290
Dec 16
SEP10
2.16
0.17
Jan 10
0.345
n/a
DEC10
2.59
0.17
Feb 10
0.490
n/a
Eurozone
U.K
Switz
Switz
Futures
implied
chg
implied
chg
implied
chg
SEP09
0.89
0.01
0.78
0.01
0.34
0.01
DEC09
1.07
-0.01
1.02
-0.01
0.39
-0.01
MAR10
1.34
-0.04
1.43
-0.04
0.49
-0.04
JUN10
1.77
-0.04
2.00
-0.04
0.70
-0.04
SEP10
2.18
-0.04
2.57
-0.04
0.92
-0.04
DEC10
2.55
-0.04
3.12
-0.04
1.14
-0.04
Japan
Australia
Canada
Canada
Futures
implied
chg
implied
chg
implied
chg
SEP09
0.53
0.01
4.50
0.01
0.45
0.01
DEC09
0.52
-0.01
5.02
-0.01
0.57
-0.01
MAR10
0.53
-0.04
5.36
-0.04
0.89
-0.04
JUN10
0.54
-0.04
5.63
-0.04
1.33
-0.04
SEP10
0.59
-0.04
5.84
-0.04
1.76
-0.04
DEC10
0.64
-0.04
6.02
-0.04
2.16
-0.04
JAPAN
GVI BOJ Policy
BANK OF JAPAN Policy Objective: The Bank of Japan Law states that the Bank's monetary policy should be "aimed at, through the pursuit of price stability, contributing to the sound development of the national economy."
The chart above shows year/year core nationwide CPI and the reported BOJ goal of between 0% and 2% for this price index.
The chart above shows the current three month libor rate, the current BOJ overnight rate target and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago. The chart provides a view on where the markets feel Japanese interest rates are headed.
The chart above shows the Japanese overnight rate target, three month libor, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.
UNITED STATES
GVI U.S. Federal Reserve Bank Policy and Economic Profiles
FEDERAL RESERVE Policy Objective: The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Federal Open Market Committee shall maintain long run growth of the monetary and credit aggregates commensurate with the economy's long run potential to increase production, so as to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.
U.S. Economic Profile in Charts
The chart above shows year/year core PCE for the U.S. relative to its its reported "comfort zone for this key price index. Headline and Core CPI figures are also shown.
The above monthly U.S. employment chart is included because its the most closely followed data release each month, and because one of the objectives of the Fed is to maximize employment.
The chart above shows the current three month libor rate, the current Fed funds target and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago. The chart provides a view on where the markets feel U.S. interest rates are headed.
The chart above shows the U.S. Fed Funds rate target, three month libor, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.
John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a Vice-President and senior dealer in a forex inter-bank and futures trading arm of a subsidiary (ContiCurrency) of the Continental Grain Company in NYC. Previous to that, he was one of the early members of the Chemical Bank corporate advisory service in NYC, and also worked in international liability management for that bank. John holds an MBA from the Hass School at the University of California at Berkeley and a bachelors degree in International Economics from Berkeley.
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