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Monday August 10, 2009 - 10:44:09 GMT -

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FX Blog- GVI Forex Month Ahead Interest Rate Outlook for August 10, 2009

Central Bank Policy Outlook -- Key Interest Rates

Global Interest Rates

The Monetary Policy Outlook is prepared weekly by the trading professionals at GVI Forex. For information on the GVI Forex Service Click Here

Upcoming Central Bank Meetings -- Monetary Profiles

Date Bank Target GVI Forex Policy Outlook last
11-Aug-09 BOJ 0.10% No rate change. Quantitative Ease unch
12-Aug-09 FED 0 to.25% No rate change. Quantitative Ease unch
1-Sep-09 RBA 3.00% No rate change. Next move higher? unch
3-Sep-09 ECB 1.00% No rate change. little room for ease unch
9-Sep-09 RBNZ 2.50% No rate change. Bias lower rates. unch
10-Sep-09 BOE 0.50% No rate change. Quantitative Ease unch
10-Sep-09 BOC 0.25% BOC to hold rates unch until mid-2010 unch
17-Sep-09 SNB 0.50% Rates near floor; Quantitative Ease unch

8/10/2009 9:32 GMT US FF implied   mtgs
Futures implied change Aug 09 0.177   Aug 11
SEP09 0.50 0.01 Sep 09 0.195   Sep 22
DEC09 0.80 0.05 Oct 09 0.205   n/a
MAR10 1.22 0.10 Nov 09 0.245   Nov 4
JUN10 1.69 0.14 Dec 09 0.290   Dec 16
SEP10 2.16 0.17 Jan 10 0.345   n/a
DEC10 2.59 0.17 Feb 10 0.490   n/a
  Eurozone U.K   Switz Switz
Futures implied chg implied chg implied chg
SEP09 0.89 0.01 0.78 0.01 0.34 0.01
DEC09 1.07 -0.01 1.02 -0.01 0.39 -0.01
MAR10 1.34 -0.04 1.43 -0.04 0.49 -0.04
JUN10 1.77 -0.04 2.00 -0.04 0.70 -0.04
SEP10 2.18 -0.04 2.57 -0.04 0.92 -0.04
DEC10 2.55 -0.04 3.12 -0.04 1.14 -0.04
  Japan   Australia   Canada Canada
Futures implied chg implied chg implied chg
SEP09 0.53 0.01 4.50 0.01 0.45 0.01
DEC09 0.52 -0.01 5.02 -0.01 0.57 -0.01
MAR10 0.53 -0.04 5.36 -0.04 0.89 -0.04
JUN10 0.54 -0.04 5.63 -0.04 1.33 -0.04
SEP10 0.59 -0.04 5.84 -0.04 1.76 -0.04
DEC10 0.64 -0.04 6.02 -0.04 2.16 -0.04


GVI BOJ Policy

BANK OF JAPAN Policy Objective: The Bank of Japan Law states that the Bank's monetary policy should be "aimed at, through the pursuit of price stability, contributing to the sound development of the national economy."

Nationwide CPI

The chart above shows year/year core nationwide CPI and the reported BOJ goal of between 0% and 2% for this price index. 

Manufacturing PMI

CHART: BOJ Quarterly Tankan Survey

s-t rates

The chart above shows the current three month libor rate, the current BOJ overnight rate target  and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago.  The chart provides a view on where the markets feel Japanese interest rates are headed.

interest rates

The chart above shows the Japanese overnight rate target, three month libor, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.


GVI U.S. Federal Reserve Bank Policy and Economic Profiles

FEDERAL RESERVE Policy Objective: The Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System and the Federal Open Market Committee shall maintain long run growth of the monetary and credit aggregates commensurate with the economy's long run potential to increase production, so as to promote effectively the goals of maximum employment, stable prices, and moderate long-term interest rates.

U.S. Economic Profile in Charts

The chart above shows year/year core PCE for the U.S. relative to its its reported "comfort zone for this key price index. Headline and Core CPI figures are also shown.



s-t rates

The above monthly U.S. employment chart is included because its the most closely followed data release each month, and because one of the objectives of the Fed is to maximize employment.

s-t rates

s-t rates

The chart above shows the current three month libor rate, the current Fed funds target  and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago.  The chart provides a view on where the markets feel U.S. interest rates are headed.

interest rates

The chart above shows the U.S. Fed Funds rate target, three month libor, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.

John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Prior to, he was a Vice-President and senior dealer in a forex inter-bank and futures trading arm of a subsidiary (ContiCurrency) of the Continental Grain Company in NYC. Previous to that, he was one of the early members of the Chemical Bank corporate advisory service in NYC, and also worked in international liability management for that bank. John holds an MBA from the Hass School at the University of California at Berkeley and a bachelors degree in International Economics from Berkeley.


Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

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GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 31 July 2018
AA JP- Bank of Japan
A 06:00 DE- Retail Sales
A 09:00 EZ- flash HICP/GDP
AA 12:30 US- Core PCE Deflator
A 14:00 US- CB Consumer Confidence
Wed 1 Aug 2018
A Final Mfg PMIs
AA 12:15 US- ADP Private Payrolls
A 15:00 US- EIA Crude
AA 18:00 US- Federal Reserve Decision
Thu 2 Aug 2018
AA 11:00 GB- Bank of England Decision
A 13:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 3 Aug 2018
A Final Services PMIs
AA 12:30 US- Employment
A 12:30 US/CA- Trade

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

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