The U.S. Dollar posted gains against most major currencies
on Monday in a continuation of the move which began on last Thursday and
accelerated on Friday following a better-than-expected U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls
This strength may continue overnight but a consolidation
pattern could begin as early as tomorrow morning in New York when the Fed begins its two-day
Federal Open Market Committee meeting.
Forex traders are beginning to think that market participants
are beginning to shift away from a risk appetite driven scenario to a more
traditional fundamental scenario where the currency representing the strongest
economy dominates the trade.In this
case, the perception that the U.S.
economy will lead the world out of its recession is making the Dollar appear
The GBP USD confirmed last weekâ€™s technical reversal top
with a strong follow-through to the downside.Not only is the stronger U.S. economy a bearish factor on British Pound,
but last weekâ€™s decision by the Bank of England to expand its asset buy-back
program is also being viewed as a negative factor.
Trader perceptions that the U.S.
economy is stronger than the Euro Zone economy and that the U.S. will pull
out of the recession before the Euro Zone helped pressure the EUR USD
today.Technically the Euro saw selling
because of the confirmation of last weekâ€™s closing price reversal top.At a minimum, this type of pattern usually
triggers an initial break of 2 to 3 days before retracing to test the
The USD JPY gained ground on Monday.The developing strength in the U.S. economy is
making the Dollar more attractive as the Japanese economy continues to struggle
to find its footing.Tomorrow the Bank
of Japan will announce its interest rate decision.It is expected to keep interest rates
The U.S. Dollar gained ground versus the Swiss Franc.Investors were encouraged to buy the Dollar
on expectations of a recovery in the U.S. economy will lead to higher,
more attractive Treasury yields.
Last weekâ€™s closing price reversal bottom in the USD CAD was
confirmed by todayâ€™s rally.Last
Fridayâ€™s better than expected U.S.
employment report coupled with Canadaâ€™s
worse than expected report is attracting fresh buying and short-covering.
The higher yielding AUD USD and NZD USD finished mixed
against the Dollar.If the U.S. equity
markets can top out and develop a down trend then look for a much harder break
in these two currencies as traders will begin to demand less risk.Higher treasury yields or speculation that
the Fed may announce an exit strategy will also have a bearish influence on
these two Forex pairs.
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Mon 12 Mar 2018 A 17:00 US- 3-Yr Auction Tue 13 Mar 2018 A 10:00 DE- ZEW Survey AA 12:30 US- CPI A 17:00 US- 10-Yr Auction Wed 14 Feb 2018 AA 12:30 US- Retail Sales A 12:30 US- PPI A 14:30 US- EIA Crude A 17:00 US- 30-Yr Auction Thu 15 Mar 2018 A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless A 12:30 US- Philly Fed, Empire PMI A 12:15 US- Industrial Production Fri 16 Mar 2018 A 10:00 EZ- final HICP A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits A 14:00 US- prelim Univ of Mich
John M. Bland, MBA co-founding Partner, Global-View.com
Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.
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