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Forex Blog - European Market Update: Relative growth scenario among countries becoming the next big trading theme; Russian Q2 GDP falls a record 10.9%

Today 06:02am EST/10:02am GMT

European Market Update: Relative growth scenario among countries becoming the next big trading theme; Russian Q2 GDP falls a record 10.9%


- (GE) German Jul Wholesale Price Index M/M: -0.5% v 0.3%e, Y/Y: -10.6% v-9.7%e

- (GE) German Jul Final Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.0% v -0.1%e; Y/Y: -0.5% v -0.6%e

- (GE) German Jul Final CPI - EU Harmonized M/M: -0.1% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: -0.7% v -0.6%e

- (FR) French Jun Central Govt. Balance: -€86.6B v -€88.7B prior

- (HU) Hungarian Jul Consumer Prices M/M: 1.3% v 2.8%e; Y/Y: 5.1% v 6.1%e

- (CZ) Czech Jun Final Industrial Output Y/Y: -12.2% v -12.3% prior; Construction Output Y/Y: 0.1% v -2.1% prior

- (TU) Turkish Jul Capacity Utilization: 72.3% v 74.0%e

- (SW) Swedish Jul CPI - Headline Rate M/M: -0.5% v-0.6%e; Y/Y:-0.9 % v-1.0%e

- (SW) Swedish Jul SW CPI - CPIF M/M: -0.2% v -0.4%e, Y/Y: 1.8% v 1.5%e; CPI Level 298.8 v 298.46e

- (NV) Netherlands Jun Industrial Production M/M: -0.5% v 0.6% prior, Y/Y: -12.7% v -12.5% prior; Industrial Sales Y/Y: -25.5% v -27.3% prior

- (CZ) Czech Current Account Monthly (CZK) -16.0B v -9.00Be

- (RU) Russia Annual GDP Real YoY % v -9.8% prior

- (UK) Jun Visible Trade Balance: -£6.5B v -£6.2Be; Trade Balance Non EU: -£3.6 v -£3.4Be; Total Trade Balance: -£2.2B v -£2.30Be

- (UK) Jun DCLG UK House Prices Y/Y: -10.7% v -12.0%e

- (LV) Latvia Jun Current Account (LAT): 259.1M v 135.1M prior


- In equities news overnight: Equity markets opened to a soft tone and have broadly trended higher through the European morning. Snapping a two-session negative open trend, equities took their tone from a broadly positive Asian trading session that internalized a range of mixed Chinese data (industrial production coming in below expectations). Corporate news flow has lowered significantly from the deluge of earnings reports seen last week with today's pre-market seeing the likes of Danske Bank [DANSKE.DC], Adeco [ADEN.SZ], Intercontinental Hotels [IHG.UK] and Friends Provident [FP.UK]. European bourses have shrugged off disappointing economic data out of German (July final CPI's), Hungary (Consumer prices) and Russia (Q2 annual real GDP rate). Declines in UK DCLG house prices came in below expectations (better) and provided a brief rally for the FTSE. In sector performances, auto's provided a rebound from yesterday's declines to pull the industrial and consumer sectors higher. Trading volumes have returned to their summer/non-earnings lows with the CAC, DAX and FTSE all trading below their moving averages. By 5:30EST the sentiment and tone of the trading session had begun to change with equities surrendering the large part of their morning gains. At this time the DAX retraced back to the unchanged line while US equity futures similarly pushed back towards the unchanged line.

-In individual equities: Renewable Energy Corp [REC.NO] Reports Q2 Pretax loss NOK721M v NOK189Me. Rev NOK2.31B v NOK2.01Be. Market conditions continued to deteriorate in the second quarter. || Danske Bank [DANSKE.DE] Reports Q2 Q2 Net loss DKK828M v loss DKK604Me, Pretax DKK37M v DKK427Me, Rev DKK15.1B v DKK14Be. || Adecco [ADEN.SZ] Reports Q2 Net Loss €147M v €55.8Me (unclear if comparable), R €3.6B v €3.7Be. States that sharp declines in revenue levels have recently stabilized. || Friends Provident FP.UK: Resolution offers to acquire the company for 88.25p/shr in a deal valued at £1.86B. Under the Basic Terms of the Acquisition, which are set out in more detail in section 1 of this announcement, Friends Provident Shareholders will receive a mixture of cash and New Resolution Shares. Additionally Friends Provident Shareholders may elect to receive shares or additional cash, subject to the additional cash being proportionately reduced as necessary to ensure that the Maximum Cash Amount is not exceeded. || Intercontinental Hotels [IHG.UK] Reports Q2 Op Profit $107.0M v $92.0M (ex items), Rev $375M v $388Me. Global constant currency first half RevPAR decline of 16.2%, with a second quarter decline of 18.6%. || Vedanta [VED.UK] raises its bid to buy Asarco out of bankruptcy to $1.67B - WSJ || Continental [CON.GE] Management and Schaffler have reached compromise leadership agreement -Die Welt. Under terms of deal, current CEO Karl Neumann and Supervisory Board Chairman Rolf Koerfer will leave their positions. || Bucher [BUCN.SZ] Reports H1 Net CHF41.8M v CHF46.5Me, Rev CHF1.18B v CHF1.22Be. ||

- Speakers: BOJ Shirakawa commented that Japan did not face the risk of entering a deflationary spiral, but it would take time for decline in prices to end . The BOJ cannot expect a clear, strong economic recovery and could not be confident about final demand. Japanese overall consumer spending remained weak and downside risks remained high for Japanese economy. The global economy outlook was brighter due to Asian region growth, but cautioned any global economic adjustments would take some time. Global output gap was expanding sharply contributing to price declines and uncertainty over final demand remained despite inventory adjustments. On the credit front, the BOJ gov noted that appetite for low-rated corporate debt improving but remains low || Hungary Fin Min official: To maintain annual budget deficit target ||Indonesia Central Bank Dep Gov Mulya: No plans to curb recent Rupiah appreciation; fair that currency strengthens following recent better GDP data

- In Currencies: The USD softened against the major currencies in the session but slowly managed to come off its worst levels as the NY morning approached. Overall, dealers expecting more range bound activity ahead of the FOMC decision on Wednesday. Market participant appearing to be in search of a reliable direction following last week's US July employment report. The July data release could prove to have been a watershed event. During the European morning The EUR/USD drifted higher towards the 1.42 neighborhood and shrugging off the S&P downgrade of several Baltic sovereign downgrades and the weaker Russian GDP data.. Dealers noting that China's exports and new loans tumbled in July and its industrial output rose less than estimates. Thus re-enforcing the recent PBoC comments that economic recovery was not yet solid. Perhaps weighing on the USD sentiment was the most recent round of Treasury refinancing. Awaiting outcome of 3-year $37B auction today.

- In Fixed Income: The first major auction in a supply heavy week was well received with the UK DMO selling £3.5B in 10y Gilts, in an auction covered a respectable 1.9 times, with a half a basis point yield tail. Treasuries are weaker moving into a record quarterly refunding, with 3y Notes yielding 1.835% in the when issued market, implying a roll of about 6bps. Debt markets are offering a more complex picture than a few months ago, and as the economic crisis lurches into a new phase the safe haven status of some Euro-zone peripheral markets is slowly being restored. This is exemplified by Italy; with 10y BTP's returning to pre Lehman levels relative to Bunds with a yield spread below 64bps . Meanwhile Baltic sovereign CDS spreads are wider following downgrades from S&P, with Latvia 12bps wider, Lithuania 15bps wider and Estonia 16bps wider on yesterday's close.

- In Energy: Kuwait Oil Official Al Fuzaia comented that OPEC outside the Arab states of the Persian Gulf need to tighten up compliance to agreed upon quotas . Gulf countries are compliance was "very good", but others results differ from one country to another.. According to a recent survey, OPEC's compliance with quotas wa around 73% || China July container throughput: 66.7M TEUs (-9.9% y/y v -11% prior) || T. Boone Pickens: Wind would not displace dependency on foreign oil; Sees natural gas as the preferred cheaper alternative - CNBC interview

*** NOTES ***

- Mixed messages out of Asia.

- Chinese data today suggested that growth might not be as robust as many have been hoping

- BoJ kept interest rate unchanged and maintained their economic assessment as the economy has stopped worsening and likely to pick up in H2 2009 to Q1 2010.

- South Korean central bank noted that their next move of a tightening was more likely than easing.

- Singapore: 2009 outlook remains weak and subdued and continue into 2010

- Russia Q2 GDP contracts at a record 10.9%

- European inflation data coming in mostly weaker than expected

- Markets seem poised to see a relative growth scenario among countries becoming the next big trading theme

***Looking Ahead***

- 7:00 (SA) South Africa Jun Manufacturing Prod. SA M/M: -0.5%e v 1.0% prior, Y/Y: -16.8% e v -17.1% prior

- 8:15 (CA) Canadian Jul Housing Starts 145.0Ke v 140.7K prior

- 8:30 (US) Q2 Preliminary Nonfarm Productivity 5.5%e v 1.6% prior

- 8:30 (US) Q2 Preliminary Unit Labor Costs -2.5% e v 3.0% prior

- 10:00 (US) Jun Wholesale Inventories -0.9% e v -0.8% prior

- 10:00 (US) Aug IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism 50 e v 46.3 prior

- 10:00 (UK) BoE to buy £1.4B 2034 - 2055 dated Gilts

- 11:00 (US) Fed coupon pass ( 2012- 2013's)

- 12:00 (MX) Mexico to sell 2.0B pesos in 20-year ; sell 2.5B peros in 5-year FRN bonds

- 13:00 (US) Treasury's $37B 3-year Note Auction results

- 15:00 (BR) Brazil to sell inflation-linked bonds


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