Tuesday August 11, 2009 - 12:10:46 GMT
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FX Thoughts for the Day - www.fxthoughts.com
FX Thoughts for the day : 11-Aug-2009 - 1207 GMT
EURO, JAP YEN and EURO-YEN
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Our comments on Dollar-Swiss, Sterling Pound and Australian Dollar are given below
USD-CHF @ 1.0794/97...Headed towards Supports
R: 1.0848-50 / 1.0900 / 1.0950
S: 1.0810-0790 / 1.0755-42 / 1.0712
After peaking around 1.0882 USD-CHF traded down towards its Support at 1.0800. If the present Support at 1.0810-0790 breaks, 1.0755-42 which is a cluster of Support lines, can act as an important floor. If the current Support holds, 1.0882-1.0900 and 1.0950 seem achievable in the upcoming U.S. Session.
Overall, bearishness can extend till 1.0755-42 and a reversal towards 1.0850 seems probable thereafter.
GBP-USD @ 1.6506/08...Significant Support at the 55-DMA
R: 1.6510-19 / 1.6552-78 / 1.6608-27
S: 1.6410 / 1.6358-52 / 1.6304-5899
Cable traded in a narrow range during the day. Though it continued to trade below 1.6500 most part of the day, the momentum on its downmove is less which is preventing it from a fall. As mentioned earlier the significant level to watch for on the downside is the 55-DMA (1.6410). If this Support holds and the pair gains upside momentum we may see a rise towards 1.6650-6700 in the coming sessions. Note that the projected Max-High for the day is 1.6651. Also we may see a rally once again towards 1.6900-7000 over the next few days/weeks.
On the other hand if the pair once again trades below 1.6500 and gains downside momentum a strong break below the Support at 55-DMA and a further downmove below 1.6400 might increase the chances a dip towards 1.6200 in the coming days.
Overall we expect the Support at the 55-DMA (1.6410) to hold and may see a rise towards 1.6800-6850 over the next few days.
AUD-USD @ 0.8346/49...Range bound
R: 0.8415 / 0.8448 / 0.8500
S: 0.8324-15 / 0.8262 / 0.8217
Aussie bounced back from its â€˜Strong Supportâ€™ at 0.8324 making a High of 0.8388 but is once again attempting to test Support at 0.8324-15. If this Support at 0.8324-15 is broken, the pair may turn bearish enough to test 0.8262 and 0.8217 levels. On the upside, the pair has the potential to test 0.8448 and 0.8500 once the Channel Resistance at 0.8415 is overcome bravely. The Channel is drawn by joining Lows of 0.8361 (5th August) and 0.8334 (10th August) and High of 8th August at 0.8355.
Aussie seems range bound from 0.8315 to 0.8415 for the U.S. session.
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