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Tuesday August 11, 2009 - 21:50:46 GMT
Westpac Institutional Bank - www.westpac.co.nz

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Forex Research - Morning Report

Morning Report  Wednesday 12 August 2009

News and views

Risk currencies played some catch-up with the post-NFP USD bounce, AUD, NZD and yen crosses heading lower while EUR and GBP lacked direction in the countdown to Wed's FOMC statement. US and European equity markets ignored Asia's positive lead, helping slice more than a cent off AUD/USD from early London high of 0.8390 to an 0.8276 low. NZD/USD found the 0.6760 area too tough to sustain, sliding as far as 0.6662 as it became clear that US equity investors were gloomy. Financials led the way lower (-2.9% with SPX -1.0% in its final hour) as analysts downgraded the outlook for financial insurer MBIA, along with telecoms. There was renewed focus on lender CIT Group as it delayed release of a quarterly report.

EUR/USD was broadly range-bound, chopping around the mid-1.41s. USD/JPY lost about a yen from the London morning into mid-NY, then steadied around 95.80, with pressure on yen crosses consistent with a cooler risk tone. Not surprisingly, commodities including oil (-2.4%) and copper (-1%) softened. US data (productivity, wholesale inventories) were not influential enough to test whether the USD vs data correlations did change with the employment report. The $37bn auction of 3yr Treasury notes was a success, with a 2.89 bid-to-cover ratio. The 10yr T-note enjoyed the equity jitters and the auction, rallying from 3.79% to 3.68% late.

US IBD/TIPP economic optimism rose to 50.3 in August. This is an improvement from last month's 46.3 and all three components rose for the month - outlook, personal finances, and federal policies. The IBD/TIPP survey makes up one part of the consumer sentiment indicators this week - the other being University Michigan Confidence due for release on Friday.

US wholesale sales rose 0.4% in June, a fairly soft outcome given price gains (particularly oil) through the month. However, sales continue to run ahead of inventories, which fell 1.7% in June, setting the stage for a bounce in coming quarters as restocking occurs. The sharp drop in inventories suggests that Q2 GDP is likely to be revised down from the initial -1.0% estimate, but at the same time raising the odds of a bounce in Q3.

Bank of Japan on hold at 0.10%, cautious realism. The BoJ's terse and dispassionate description of the Japanese economy is right on the money. The good news is related to the inventory cycle and policy measures. The bad news on business investment and consumption is there for all to see. As policy and inventory impacts fade, it is up to final demand to determine future direction. We are aware that the BoJ is acutely concerned about the ability of the global economy to sustain recovery beyond stimulus - or to survive a premature withdrawal of the same.

UK RICS house price balance fall 8.1% in July.  The prices paid component in the RICS survey improved to -8.1% this month, led by a surge in prices from the London region.  Overall, the report was moderately upbeat - expected sales and expected prices increased, albeit from very low bases.

UK total trade balance at -GBP2176m for June. The trade deficit was better than expected but deteriorated relative to last month's revised figure.  Taking out oil and other 'erratics' the goods balance improved due to stronger exports.  On a volume adjusted 3month basis the deficit has reduced as export contraction slowed at a faster rate than the contraction in import growth.

Outlook

Despite the NZD's failure to gain on the risk-positive US employment data, we retain an upward bias on NZD/USD near term as global data momentum remains favourable for commodity currencies.

 

Westpac Banking Corporation ABN 33 007 457 141 incorporated in Australia (NZ division). Information current as at 14 November 2007. All customers please note that this information has been prepared without taking account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Because of this you should, before acting on this information, consider its appropriateness, having regard to your objectives, financial situation or needs. Australian customers can obtain Westpac's financial services guide by calling +612 9284 8372, visiting www.westpac.com.au or visiting any Westpac Branch. The information may contain material provided directly by third parties, and while such material is published with permission, Westpac accepts no responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of any such material. Except where contrary to law, Westpac intends by this notice to exclude liability for the information. The information is subject to change without notice and Westpac is under no obligation to update the information or correct any inaccuracy which may become apparent at a later date. Westpac Banking Corporation is regulated for the conduct of investment business in the United Kingdom by the Financial Services Authority. © 2004 Westpac Banking Corporation. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future performance. The forecasts given in this document are predictive in character. Whilst every effort has been taken to ensure that the assumptions on which the forecasts are based are reasonable, the forecasts may be affected by incorrect assumptions or by known or unknown risks and uncertainties. The ultimate outcomes may differ substantially from these forecasts

 

 

 

 

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