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Wednesday August 12, 2009 - 00:09:25 GMT
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Treasury Futures Rally on Increased Auction Demand

Today’s Treasury auction saw great demand which helped drive up the price of September Treasury Bonds.  Investors were encouraged to buy the 3-year Notes at the auction because of the attractive yield and the weakness in the equity markets.  Overseas demand was particularly stronger compared to the last three months.  This could be an indication that foreign central banks are regaining confidence in the U.S. ability to pay back its debt obligations. 

 

U.S. equity markets fell sharply lower.  Investors are beginning to question stock price valuations.  The recent rally was triggered by foreign demand for risk and better than expected corporate earnings.  Now that demand for risk is diminishing because of the strengthening U.S. economy and earnings results are being questioned, it appears buyers have become scare and longs are exiting existing positions.

 

Investors are beginning to demand more than better earnings caused by cost cutting measures.  They want to see greater spending by consumers driving up revenues.  Money is still on the sidelines, but investors may not want to commit these funds until stock valuations get more in line with future earnings expectations.

 

Tomorrow’s Fed FOMC may have a lot to do with today’s light volume and sharp sell-off.  Without big buyers present to buy the dips, bearish traders had the upper hand and helped drive out the weaker longs.

 

The U.S. Dollar lost ground against most major foreign currency markets with the exception of the September Canadian Dollar.  The September British Pound and September Euro rebounded after three day sell-offs.  Technically these two markets are beginning to show signs of topping out.  There may be one more rally before the big sellers step in.  This all depends on what the Fed says tomorrow.  Weaker equity markets were the catalyst behind the break in the Canadian Dollar.  The September Japanese Yen gained ground as Japanese investors repatriated funds invested in the higher yielding stock market.

 

The weaker Dollar led to a slight increase in demand for December Gold.  Precious metals traders will be watching the Fed tomorrow to see if there are any concerns about inflation.  Most market participants expect concerns about inflation to be minimal.  A strong rally in the Dollar tomorrow following the Fed FOMC meeting will put more downside pressure on gold.

 

September Crude Oil traded lower. Traders were most likely evening up positions ahead of tomorrow’s weekly supply and demand report.  This report has been hard to predict lately and the current fundamentals aren’t offering any strong clues as to direction.  Bullish traders want to see a rally because they believe that a recovery in the U.S. economy will lead to increased demand for energy.  Bears are building a case for a break in oil prices if the Dollar continues to rally.

 

November Soybeans rallied on Tuesday as shorts covered on expectations the USDA will lower its forecast for ending inventories.  Despite improvements in crop yields which drove up production, traders feel the USDA report will show that increased foreign demand especially from China helped drawdown inventories.

 

October Sugar backed off from its recent highs.  Lower demand and profit-taking at current levels helped push prices lower.  Fundamentally this market is still bullish and should remain so into the end of the year. Lower production and strong demand from India are the driving forces behind this rally.

 

 

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
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