Treasury Futures Rally on Increased Auction Demand
Todayâ€™s Treasury auction saw great demand which helped drive
up the price of September Treasury Bonds.Investors were encouraged to buy the 3-year Notes at the auction because
of the attractive yield and the weakness in the equity markets.Overseas demand was particularly stronger
compared to the last three months.This
could be an indication that foreign central banks are regaining confidence in
ability to pay back its debt obligations.
equity markets fell sharply lower.Investors are beginning to question stock price valuations.The recent rally was triggered by foreign
demand for risk and better than expected corporate earnings.Now that demand for risk is diminishing
because of the strengthening U.S.
economy and earnings results are being questioned, it appears buyers have
become scare and longs are exiting existing positions.
Investors are beginning to demand more than better earnings
caused by cost cutting measures.They
want to see greater spending by consumers driving up revenues.Money is still on the sidelines, but
investors may not want to commit these funds until stock valuations get more in
line with future earnings expectations.
Tomorrowâ€™s Fed FOMC may have a lot to do with todayâ€™s light
volume and sharp sell-off.Without big
buyers present to buy the dips, bearish traders had the upper hand and helped
drive out the weaker longs.
The U.S. Dollar lost ground against most major foreign
currency markets with the exception of the September Canadian Dollar.The September British Pound and September
Euro rebounded after three day sell-offs.Technically these two markets are beginning to show signs of topping
out.There may be one more rally before
the big sellers step in.This all
depends on what the Fed says tomorrow.Weaker equity markets were the catalyst behind the break in the Canadian
Dollar.The September Japanese Yen
gained ground as Japanese investors repatriated funds invested in the higher
yielding stock market.
The weaker Dollar led to a slight increase in demand for
December Gold.Precious metals traders
will be watching the Fed tomorrow to see if there are any concerns about
inflation.Most market participants
expect concerns about inflation to be minimal.A strong rally in the Dollar tomorrow following the Fed FOMC meeting
will put more downside pressure on gold.
September Crude Oil traded lower. Traders were most likely
evening up positions ahead of tomorrowâ€™s weekly supply and demand report.This report has been hard to predict lately
and the current fundamentals arenâ€™t offering any strong clues as to
direction.Bullish traders want to see a
rally because they believe that a recovery in the U.S. economy will lead to increased
demand for energy.Bears are building a
case for a break in oil prices if the Dollar continues to rally.
November Soybeans rallied on Tuesday as shorts covered on
expectations the USDA will lower its forecast for ending inventories.Despite improvements in crop yields which
drove up production, traders feel the USDA report will show that increased
foreign demand especially from China
helped drawdown inventories.
October Sugar backed off from its recent highs.Lower demand and profit-taking at current
levels helped push prices lower.Fundamentally this market is still bullish and should remain so into the
end of the year. Lower production and strong demand from India are the
driving forces behind this rally.
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