User Name: Password:      Register - Lost password?

Forex News Blog
Back to The Headlines
Wednesday August 12, 2009 - 12:26:58 GMT
Black Swan Capital -

Share This Story:
| | Email

Ut oh!

Key News
•    The Bank of England said that the British economy will take time to recover from the financial crisis and that the country's banking sector remains "fragile." (AP)
•    The International Energy Agency raised its global oil demand forecasts for this year and next, citing accelerating industrial activity in China, the world’s fastest-growing consumer of crude. (Bloomberg)
•    Australian consumer confidence jumped this month to the highest level in almost two years. (Bloomberg)
•    Estonia’s gross domestic product shrank 16.6 percent in the three months ended June from the year-earlier period, the most since at least 15 years when records started, after shrinking 15.1 percent in the first quarter, the Tallinn-based statistics office said today. (Bloomberg)
•    South African retail sales fell for a fifth consecutive month in June, dropping 6.7 percent from a year ago, as mounting job losses led consumers to cut back on spending. (Bloomberg)
•    The ruble weakened to the lowest level in more than five months versus the euro, prompting speculation the central bank may be forced to intervene.


“It was a bright cold day in April, and the clocks were striking thirteen.”

                        George Orwell

FX Trading – Ut oh!

Interesting!  The global economic news this morning sure doesn’t seem to bode well for “the recession is over” crowd.  Disinflation, or deflation by another word, continues apace almost everywhere; that’s not exactly the type of thing one would expect if stimulus has provided some traction.  Emerging/developing countries almost everywhere are being squeezed very hard still.  In fact, a couple in Europe are on the brink of currency devaluation, and we know these things one started have a contagion quality that is hard to stop.  And of course the Russian economy continues to crater badly.  

And despite Australia’s excellent consumer confidence showing, its currency fell against the dollar this morning.  We suspect said fall has more to do with China than Australia vs. US.  

Would it be fair to say that all recovery boats are latched to the Chinese juggernaut—the drive of global optimism despite some ugly numbers still showing up most places?  We will go out on a limb and say yes—that’s exactly the case.  

This morning, the Chinese Shanghai index fell 4.6%.  Yesterday China racket-up another very negative export month for July at -23%; it was worse than June at -21%; not exactly the stuff of global demand.

 If this tree falls in the forest we think everyone will hear it and feel it…

 [Chart not available in text format]

I noticed the other day famous investor Jimmy Rogers, lover of all things China, except for the actual living conditions given he stopped in Singapore, said he wouldn’t sell Chinese stocks because it was like owning stocks in the US when it was booming back in the 1800’s or something like that. To Mr. Rogers’ credit, he was very right and ahead of the crowd on the boom in Chinese stocks this year.  He is a very smart man.  But, we would make another comparison between the US and China at the moment, especially after reading reports yesterday that said President Obama didn’t believe Buy America legislative would impact Canadian trade. 

Our favorite comparison is that of China now to America in 1929.  China still refuses to give up on exports and has subsidized its export sector to push that stuff out as fast as possible i.e. the goal is to force some of the brunt of the domestic pain onto its trading partners (and knowing a transition to more domestic demand will not be easy).  This is precisely what the US did in 1929 to its trading partners as the major export/manufacturing power then. 

US trading partners didn’t like it when the US back in 1929 decided to subsidize production instead of do all it could to ramp up domestic consumption; and China’s trading partners don’t like what China is doing now—the same thing.  And when you consider the magnitude of the decline in global trade now, relative to 1929, you begin to realize just how much pain the export driven economies are taking—at least those that have not had the wherewithal to force feed the equivalent of almost half their total GDP into the economy, as China has. 

The chart below was sent to us by a friend.  The maroon line on the chart is the US export decline from Oct. 1929 thru June 1930.

[Chart not available in text format.]

 Notice that the relative export declines in Japan (blue) and China (green) are worse in this cycle than the US in ‘29.  Germany is represented by the black line, and the US today is the red line.  But what is so interesting, and here is the rub, declines today in exports are primarily market-driven i.e. we do not yet have the specter of a trade war looming, as was the case in 1929-1930 and consummated with the signing of the Smooth-Hawley Tariff Act of 1930.

From Wikipedia [our emphasis]:

“Although rated capacity of the U.S. manufacturing sector had increased tremendously in the post-WWI period, actual output, income, and expenditure had not. Under the direction of Republican Senator Reed Smoot of Utah, the party had drafted the Fordney-McCumber tariff act in 1922 which increased tariffs with the purpose of increasing domestic firms' market share [China’s primary goal now]. Weakening labor markets in 1927 and 1928 prompted Smoot to propose yet another tariff increase (Smoot-Hawley Tariff Bill) [weakened labor markets all across the industrialized world now]. 

So, if China continues to push out extremely low priced subsidized final goods—already hurting its Asian-block competitors badly—Western nations will likely respond with tariffs in this economic and political environment.  Already Europe has accused China of dumping steel pipe onto the market and has levied 24% anti-dumping duties.  India isn’t exactly happy with some of the goods crossing its borders of late.  And the big swing from capital to labor environment in the US suggests we will likely see more of the Buy America theme catch hold. 

None of this may come to pass if there is a rebound in global demand.  But if there isn’t, we think stocks in bubble-licious China, and everywhere else, are way ahead of themselves.  And if that’s true, watch out for yet another major US dollar risk bid higher that will once again make it clear this game is about global capital flow and nothing else.

Jack Crooks
Black Swan Capital LLC



Forex Trading News

Forex Research

Daily Forex Market News
Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."

Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.

Register To Test Your Amazing Trader

GVI Trading. Potential Price Risk Scale
AA: Major, A: High, B: Medium

Tue 17 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- Employment
A 13:15 US- Industrial Production
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Wed 18 July 2018
AA 08:30 GB- CPI
A 12:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
AA 14:00 US-Powell Testimony
Thu 19 July 2018
AA 1:30 AU- Employment
AA 08:30 GB- Retail Sales
A 14:30 US- EIA Crude
A 12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Jun 2018
A 12:30 CA- CPI/Retail Sales

John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner,

Global-View Affiliate Program

We are starting an affiliate program to market some of our products.

Send me an email if you would be interested or if you know someone who would like to be an affiliate. Generous commissions payout for those accepted.

Put the word "affiliate" in the email subject line.

Contact us

Start trading with forex broker Markets Cube

Max McKegg's Daily Forex Trading Forecasts

Veteran FX Trader, Max McKegg, forecasts all the Major currencies and the Australasians; providing Daily and Medium Term Trading forecasts to subscribers, who include large Banks the world over, as well as individual traders in more than 30 different countries.

Request a TRIAL of Max's Forex Service.


Retail Forex Brokerage Changing!

Are you looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are more critical things to consider than you might have thought.

We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.

Our Best Brokers listing section includes:Forex Broker Reviews, Forex Broker Directory, Forex Broker Comparisons and advice on How to Choose a Forex Broker

If would like guidance, advice, or have any concerns at all ASK US. We are here to help you.

SEE Our Best Brokers List

Currency Trading Tools

  • Live rates, currency news, fx charts. 

  • Research reports and currency forecasts.

  • Foreign Exchange database and history.

  • Weekly economic calendar.

Directory of  Forex trading tools

Terms of Use    Disclaimer    Privacy Policy    Contact    Site Map

Forex Forum
Forex Trading Forum
Forex Forum + forex rates
Forex Forum Archives
Forex Forum RSS
Free Registration

Trading Forums
Currency Forum Guide
Forum Directory
Open Forum
Futures Forum
Political Forum
Forex Brokers
Compare Forex Brokers
Forex Broker News
Forex Broker Hotline

Online Forex Trading
Forex Trading Tools
Currency Trading Tools
Forex Database
FX Chart Points
Risk/Carry Trade Chart Points
Economic Calendar
Quicklinks to Economic Data
Currency Futures Swaps
Fibonacci Calculator
Currency Futures Calculator

Forex Education
Forex Learning Center
FX Trading Basics Course
Forex Trading Course
Forex Trading Handbook

Forex Analysis
Forex Forecasts
Interest Rate Forecasts
Central Bank Forecasts

FX Charts and Quotes
Live FX Rates
Live Global Market Quotes
Live Forex Charts
US Dollar Index Chart
Global Chart Gallery
Daily Market Tracker
Forex News
Forex Blog
Forex News
Forex Blog Archives
Forex News RSS
Forex Services
Forex Products
GVI Forex
Free Trials
FX Bookstore
FX Jobs and Careers
Jobs USA
Jobs UK
Jobs Canada

Forex Forum

The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.

Forex News

The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.

Currency Trading

Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by

Forex Brokers

The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.

Forex Trading

Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.

FX Trading

Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.

Forex Blog also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.



By using this website, you are agreeing to our Privacy Policy and Terms of Use, and Cookie Policy

Copyright ©1996-2014 Global-View. All Rights Reserved.
Hosting and Development by Blue 105