FX Blog- GVI Forex Month Ahead Interest Rate Outlook for August 13, 2009
Central Bank Policy Outlook -- Key Interest Rates
Global Interest Rates
The Global-View.com Monetary Policy Outlook is prepared weekly by the trading professionals at GVI Forex. For information on the GVI Forex Service Click Here
Upcoming Central Bank Meetings -- Monetary Profiles
GVI Forex Policy Outlook
No rate change. Next move higher?
No rate change. little room for ease
No rate change. Bias lower rates.
No rate change. Quantitative Ease
BOC to hold rates unch until mid-2010
No rate change. Quantitative Ease
Rates near floor; Quantitative Ease
No rate change. Quantitative Ease
GVI Reserve Bank of Australia Policy
RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA Policy Objective: The policy objective is a target for consumer price inflation, of 2-3 per cent per annum. Monetary policy aims to achieve this over the medium term and, subject to that, to encourage the strong and sustainable growth in the economy. Controlling inflation preserves the value of money. In the long run, this is the principal way in which monetary policy can help to form a sound basis for long-term growth in the economy.
The chart above shows year/year and the CPI target of 2% to 3% for this price index.
The chart above shows the current three month bank bill rate, the current Cash Rate target and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago. The chart provides a view on where the markets feel Australian interest rates are headed.
The chart above shows the Australian overnight rate target, three month bank bills, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.
GVI European Central Bank Policy and Economic Profiles
ECB Policy Objective: The primary objective of the ECB's monetary policy is to maintain price stability. The ECB aims at inflation rates of below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.
Eurozone Economic Profile in Charts
The chart above shows year/year HICP (Harmonized CPI) for the Eurozone relatrive to its "below 2%" target level.
The chart above shows the current three month libor rate, the current ECB "refi" rate target and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago. The chart provides a view on where the markets feel Eurozone interest rates are headed.
The chart above shows the ECB refi rate target, three month libor, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.
John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a Vice-President and senior dealer in a forex inter-bank and futures trading arm of a subsidiary (ContiCurrency) of the Continental Grain Company in NYC. Previous to that, he was one of the early members of the Chemical Bank corporate advisory service in NYC, and also worked in international liability management for that bank. John holds an MBA from the Hass School at the University of California at Berkeley and a bachelors degree in International Economics from Berkeley.
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Mon 18 Dec
10:00 EZ- final HICP Tue 19 Dec
09:00 DE- IFO Survey
13:30 US- Housing Starts/Permits
13:30 US- Current Account Wed 20 Dec
15:00 US- Existing Homes Sales
15:30 US- EIA Crude Thu 21 Dec
03:00 JP- BOJ Decision
13:30 CA- CPI & Retail Sales
13:30 US Weely Jobless
13:30 US- GDP Fri 22 Dec
09:30 US- GB- GDP
13:30 US- core PCE Deflator & Presonal Income
15:00 US- New Homes Sales
15:00 US- final University of Michigan
17:00 US- early Closes Mon 25 Dec
00:00 Christmas Holidays
Potential Trading Opportunities
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Mon--10:00 GMT-- EZ- final November HICP. flash data are rarely changed.
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium Tue --09:00 GMT-- DE- IFO Survey. Key report but usually not a market-mover
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH- Medium- Tue --13:30 GMT-- US- Housing Starts and Permits. Leading indicators of activity
POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH-Medium- Wed --15:00-- US- Existing Homes Sales. Top Housing statistic
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