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Thursday August 13, 2009 - 11:49:34 GMT
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FX Blog- GVI Forex Month Ahead Interest Rate Outlook for August 13, 2009

Central Bank Policy Outlook -- Key Interest Rates


Global Interest Rates


The Global-View.com Monetary Policy Outlook is prepared weekly by the trading professionals at GVI Forex. For information on the GVI Forex Service Click Here

Upcoming Central Bank Meetings -- Monetary Profiles

  
8/13/2009
Date Bank Target GVI Forex Policy Outlook last
1-Sep-09 RBA 3.00% No rate change. Next move higher? unch
3-Sep-09 ECB 1.00% No rate change. little room for ease unch
9-Sep-09 RBNZ 2.50% No rate change. Bias lower rates. unch
10-Sep-09 BOE 0.50% No rate change. Quantitative Ease unch
10-Sep-09 BOC 0.25% BOC to hold rates unch until mid-2010 unch
17-Sep-09 BOJ 0.10% No rate change. Quantitative Ease unch
17-Sep-09 SNB 0.50% Rates near floor; Quantitative Ease unch
23-Sep-09 FED 0 to.25% No rate change. Quantitative Ease unch





  
8/13/2009 9:34 GMT US FF implied   mtgs
Futures implied change Aug 09 0.168   Aug 11
SEP09 0.45 -0.02 Sep 09 0.180   Sep 22
DEC09 0.61 -0.08 Oct 09 0.200   n/a
MAR10 0.91 -0.12 Nov 09 0.220   Nov 4
JUN10 1.36 -0.13 Dec 09 0.240   Dec 16
SEP10 1.82 -0.12 Jan 10 0.265   n/a
DEC10 2.27 -0.11 Feb 10 0.345   n/a
             
  Eurozone U.K   Switz Switz
Futures implied chg implied chg implied chg
SEP09 0.84 -0.02 0.65 -0.02 0.31 -0.02
DEC09 0.95 -0.05 0.81 -0.05 0.33 -0.05
MAR10 1.19 -0.05 1.19 -0.05 0.40 -0.05
JUN10 1.60 -0.04 1.73 -0.04 0.60 -0.04
SEP10 2.01 -0.03 2.31 -0.03 0.81 -0.03
DEC10 2.41 -0.02 2.86 -0.02 1.03 -0.02
             
  Japan   Australia   Canada Canada
Futures implied chg implied chg implied chg
SEP09 0.53 -0.02 4.49 -0.02 0.44 -0.02
DEC09 0.53 -0.05 4.98 -0.05 0.50 -0.05
MAR10 0.54 -0.05 5.36 -0.05 0.76 -0.05
JUN10 0.56 -0.04 5.57 -0.04 1.11 -0.04
SEP10 0.61 -0.03 5.72 -0.03 1.50 -0.03
DEC10 0.66 -0.02 5.84 -0.02 1.88 -0.02






AUSTRALIA

GVI Reserve Bank of Australia Policy


RESERVE BANK OF AUSTRALIA Policy Objective: The policy objective is a target for consumer price inflation, of 2-3 per cent per annum. Monetary policy aims to achieve this over the medium term and, subject to that, to encourage the strong and sustainable growth in the economy. Controlling inflation preserves the value of money. In the long run, this is the principal way in which monetary policy can help to form a sound basis for long-term growth in the economy.

aucpi

The chart above shows year/year and the CPI target of 2% to 3% for this price index. 

aupmi



jobs


s-t rates

The chart above shows the current three month bank bill rate, the current Cash Rate target  and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago.  The chart provides a view on where the markets feel Australian interest rates are headed.


interest rates

The chart above shows the Australian overnight rate target, three month bank bills, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.




EUROZONE

GVI European Central Bank Policy and Economic Profiles


ECB Policy Objective: The primary objective of the ECB's monetary policy is to maintain price stability. The ECB aims at inflation rates of below, but close to, 2% over the medium term.

Eurozone Economic Profile in Charts

ezcpi

The chart above shows year/year HICP (Harmonized CPI) for the Eurozone relatrive to its "below 2%" target level.

ezcpi

ezcpi




s-t rates

The chart above shows the current three month libor rate, the current ECB  "refi" rate target  and where the futures markets are currently trading three month rates for the specified periods in the future. The chart also includes comparisons of where these futures rates were trading most recently, a week ago and four weeks ago.  The chart provides a view on where the markets feel Eurozone interest rates are headed.


interest rates

The chart above shows the ECB refi rate target, three month libor, and two- and ten-year bond yields over the past twelve months.



John M. Bland is an author and co-founder and partner of Global-View.com. Prior to Global-View.com, he was a Vice-President and senior dealer in a forex inter-bank and futures trading arm of a subsidiary (ContiCurrency) of the Continental Grain Company in NYC. Previous to that, he was one of the early members of the Chemical Bank corporate advisory service in NYC, and also worked in international liability management for that bank. John holds an MBA from the Hass School at the University of California at Berkeley and a bachelors degree in International Economics from Berkeley.

 

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Forex news reports can be found on the forex research headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found here.

Forex News
Real-time forex market news reports and features providing other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."



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Amazing Trader EVENT RISK Calendar:

Wed 18 Oct
12:30 US- Housing Starts & Permits
14:30 US- EIA Crude
Thu 19 Oct
01:30 AU- Employment
08:30 GB- Retail Sales
12:30 US- Weekly Jobless
Fri 20 Oct
12:30 CA- Retail Sales & CPI
14:00 US- Existing Homes Sales

Forex Trading Outlook


Trading Opportunities


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Tue-- 08:30 GMT GB- CPI top tier confirmation of Inflation.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT DE- ZEW Survey second most important German monthly Survey.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 09:00 GMT EZ- final HICP revision to flash report. Revisions are usually minor.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Tue-- 13:15 GMT US- Industrial Production. Top output indicator.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 12:30 GMT US- Housing Starts and Permits revision to flash report. Useful housing leading indicator.

  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Wed-- 14:30 GMT US- EIA Crude. Top WTI inventory measure.



  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 01:30 GMT AU- Employment. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 02:00 GMT CN- GDP. Top economic indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: HIGH Thu-- 08:30 GMT GB- Retail Sales. Top consumption indicator.


  • POTENTIAL PRICE RISK: Medium Thu-- 12:30 GMT US- Weekly Jobless. Employment Indicator.



John M. Bland, MBA
co-founding Partner, Global-View.com

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