Â·Fed sees economy
stabilising, but still emphasizes weak points
from surprisingly good German GDP data
Â·Weak US retail sales put dollar under fresh pressure
Growth surprise boosts euro
Patterns in the forex markets seem to be changing: over
a long period of time, whenever the crisis intensified, the dollar and the yen
benefited. The more confident market participants became, the more the euro
strengthened. Most other industrialised and emerging market currencies benefited
from increasing risk appetite as well. As confidence grows that the economy could
have bottomed out, markets are now focusing more on comparing developments in
individual countries, particularly the pace of recovery in these regions, and
when they could decide to end expansive monetary policies and quantitative easing
After the release of the US labour market report last Friday, both the euro and
the yen had suffered badly. USD-JPY rose by 2 Â˝ yen to 97.50, EUR-USD fell from
1.4350 to 1.4150. Then, however, in the run-up to the FOMC meeting, the US currency began to weaken again â€“ presumably mainly
because market participants were expecting the Fed to remain cautious and focus
on a continuation of its present monetary policy. The Bank of England could
have had an impact on market expectations too: the Inflation Report emphasized
that the interest rate hikes markets had been expecting would lead to inflation
undershooting the target.
The Fed, however, did not take such a decisive stand
as the Bank of England. The Fedâ€™s assessment of the economic situation was
slightly more positive than before: the phrase â€śthe pace of contraction is
slowingâ€ť was replaced by â€śeconomic activity is levelling outâ€ť. But the Fed
still underlined the weak points, particularly private consumption and
corporate investment. The announcement that the $300bn Treasury securities purchasing
programme was expected to be completed according to plan by the end of October caused
some confusion. Some people saw it â€“ to some extent in contrast to the Bank of
England â€“ as the beginning of an exit from quantitative easing. The marketâ€™s
reaction was only short-lived, however. This decision was in fact in line with expectations.
In the second half of the week, the dollar came under
fresh pressure after surprisingly good second quarter growth figures for the
euro area onthe one hand, and somewhat
disappointing US retail sales figures on the other. According to preliminary
estimates, the decline in real GDP in the eurozone slowed down from â€“2.5% to â€“0.1% quarter-on-quarter.
Compared with the previous year, the decline slowed from â€“4.9% to â€“4.6%. The
biggest economies in the euro area, Germany and France, have returned to positive growth rates (0.3%
respectively, quarter-on-quarter). In both countries, private consumption,
public spending and net exports had a positive impact, whereas corporate
investment continued to fall.
Then, however, the US retail sales figures dampened the upbeat mood:
instead of picking up as expected because of the US cash-for-clunkers scheme, they posted an 0.1% decline
in July compared with the previous month. The 2.4% increase in car sales was
not enough to push the total figure into positive territory. Sales fell in most
product groups, suggesting that new cars are perhaps being purchased instead of other goods.
The sales figures from the US were not good, but not abysmal either. The marketâ€™s
sharp reaction could indicate that market participants are well aware
of the risks to the upswing scenario â€“ the labour market and private
consumption: an upswing without private households is practically inconceivable
in the US. Markets will have to keep a close eye on consumption
data such as consumer confidence.
On the US side, we think it likely that the slightly favourable
trend in the macroeconomic data could continue for the time being. Next week will see
the release of the first August figures for the manufacturing sector, which is
benefiting at present from inventory re-stocking and the car scrappage scheme.
The housing market is also likely to continue to stabilise. From this point of view,
EUR-USD, presently at just under 1.43, could lose some ground again. In the
light of surprisingly strong GDP in Q2 and on the general assumption that the
ECB is likely to be more hawkish than the Fed, the euro should remain quite
well supported, however. It will presumably remain within the trading range for
the time being.
Rieke +49 69 718-4114
Grabbe / Klaus NĂ¤fken
report has been prepared by BHF-BANK Aktiengesellschaft on behalf of itself and
its affiliated companies (together "BHF-BANK Group") solely for the information
of its clients. The information
and opinions in this document are based on sources believed to be reliable and
acting in good faith, but no representation or warranty, express or implied, is
made by any member of the BHF-BANK Group as to their accuracy, completeness or
correctness. Opinions and recommendations are given in good faith but without
legal responsibility and are subject to change without notice. The information
does not constitute advice or personal recommendation, for which the duty of
suitability would be owed, but may facilitate your own investment decision.
Moreover, you should seek your own advice as to the suitability of an
investment matter mentioned herein. Investors are reminded that the price of
securities and the income from them can go down as well as up and that the past
performance of an investment or a market is not necessarily indicative for future
results. This document is for information
purposes only. Descriptions of any company or companies or their securities
mentioned herein are not intended to be complete, and this document is not, and
should not be construed as, an offer to sell or solicitation of any offer to
buy the securities mentioned in it. BHF-BANK Group and its officers and
employees may have a long or short position or engage in transactions in any of
the securities mentioned in this document, or in any related securities. This publication
must not be distributed in the United
rights reserved. Please mention source when quoting from it.
Forex Trading News
Daily Forex Market News Forex news reports can be found on the forex research
headlines page below. Here you will find real-time forex market news reports
provided by respected contributors of currency trading information. Daily forex
market news, weekly forex research and monthly forex news features can be found
Forex News Real-time forex market news reports and features providing
other currency trading information can be accessed by clicking on any of the
headlines below. At the top of the forex blog page you will find the latest
forex trading information. Scroll down the page if you are looking for less
recent currency trading information. Scroll to the bottom of fx blog headlines
and click on the link for past reports on forex. Currency world news reports
from previous years can be found on the left sidebar under "FX Archives."
Elevate Your Trading With The Amazing Trader!
The Amazing Trader includes:
Actionable trading levels delivered to YOUR charts in real-time.
looking for your first broker or do you need of a new one? There are
more critical things to consider than you might have thought.
We were trading long before there were online brokers. Global-View
has been directly involved with the industry since its infancy. We've
seen everything and are up-to-data with recent regulatory changes.
The Global-View Forex Forum is the hub for currency trading on the web. Founded in 1996, it was the original forex forum and is still the place where forex traders around the globe come 24/7 looking for currency trading ideas, breaking forex news, fx trading rumors, fx flows and more. This is where you can find a full suite of forex trading tools, including a complete fx database, forex chart points, live currency rates, and live fx charts. In addition, there is a forex brokers directory where you can compare forex brokers. There is also a forex brokers hotline where you can ask for help choosing a forex broker that meets your individual fx trading needs. Interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading.
The forex forum is where traders come to discuss the forex market. It is one of the few places where forex traders of all levels of experience, from novice to professionals, interact on the same venue to discuss forex trading. There is also the GVI Forex, which is a private subscription service where professional and experienced currency traders meet in a private forex forum. it is like a virtual forex trading room. This is open to forex traders of all levels of experience to view but only experienced currency tradingprofessionals can post.
Currency trading charts are updated daily using the forex trading ranges posted in the Global-View forex database. You will also find technical indicators on the fx trading charts, e.g. moving averages for currencies such as the EURUSD. This is another forex trading tool provided by Global-View.com.
The forex database can be used to access high, low, close daily forex ranges for key currency pairs, such as the EURUSD, USDJPY, USDCHF, GBPUSD, USDCAD, AUD, NZD and major crosses, including EURJPY, EURGBP, EURCHF, GBPJPY, GBPCHF and CHFJPY. Data for these currency trading pairs dating back to January 1, 1999 can be downloaded to an Excel spreadsheet.
Forex chart points are in a currency trading table that includes; latest fx tradinghigh-low-close range, Bollinger Bands, Fibonacci retracement levels, daily forex pivot points support and resistance levels, average daily forex range, MACD for the different currency trading pairs. You can look on the forex forum for updates when one of the fx trading tools is updated.
Global-View also offers a full fx trading chart gallery that includes fx pairs, such as the EURUSD, commodities, stocks and bonds. In a fx trading world where markets are integrated, the chart gallery is a valuable trading tool. Look for updates on the Forex Forum when the chart gallery is updated.
Global-View.com also offers a forex blog, where articles of interest for currency trading are posted throughout the day. The forex blog articles come from outside sources, including forex brokers research as well as from the professionals at Global-View.com. This forex blog includes the Daily Forex View, Market Chatter and technical forex blog updates. In additional to its real time forex forum, there are also Member Forums available for more in depth forex trading discussions.
WARNING: FOREIGN EXCHANGE TRADING AND INVESTMENT IN DERIVATIVES
CAN BE VERY SPECULATIVE AND MAY RESULT IN LOSSES AS WELL AS PROFITS. FOREIGN
EXCHANGE AND DERIVATIVES TRADING IS NOT SUITABLE FOR MANY MEMBERS OF THE
PUBLIC AND ONLY RISK CAPITAL SHOULD BE APPLIED. THE WEBSITE DOES NOT TAKE
INTO ACCOUNT SPECIAL INVESTMENT GOALS, THE FINANCIAL SITUATION OR SPECIFIC
REQUIREMENTS OF INDIVIDUAL USERS. YOU SHOULD CAREFULLY CONSIDER YOUR FINANCIAL
SITUATION AND CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISORS AS TO THE SUITABILITY TO YOUR
SITUATION PRIOR TO MAKING ANY INVESTMENT OR ENTERING INTO ANY TRANSACTIONS.