Wednesday February 2, 2005 - 01:23:28 GMT
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Forex: Daily Forecast for the U.S. Dollar vs Japanese Yen 2nd February 2005 Price:
Resistance: 103.85 ... 104.08 ... 104.32 ... 104.57
Support....: 103.48 ... 103.28 ... 102.97 ... 102.75
Mixed - waiting for breaks
A tight range seen again yesterday but with a marginal new high at 104.08 which bounced from a resistance line running from the 105.11-17 highs. If any breach of this line is to be seen then we need 103.45-50 to support and then see breach of 104.08 that would spur price up to 104.57-82 where we would expect a short term cap. Further resistance is found at 105.10.
Price failed to break above the 104.04 resistance and has moved down from there. If we are to see more losses we would like to see the 103.75-85 area cap now and cause a break below 103.45-50 and if seen we feel this will cause follow-through lower towards 102.75-97 at least and possibly close to the 102.34 low. Although not anticipated today, overall we would look for losses to reach back to the 101.67-82 area.
Elliott Wave Comments:
31st January 2005
The spike down to 102.34 and reversal higher didn't help too much, keeping the Dollar within a range. However, if we are to follow the indication from the daily cycles we should be looking for 104.04-24 to provide a cap and for losses to develop that should reach the 101.67-82 area initially and later to 100.88 being the target for where Wave (c) equals Wave (a). With the depth of the Wave (b) pullback, expect Wave (iv) to be brief and shallow to be followed by a dip to 99.75 where we see a confluence of Fibonacci projections:
A Wave [v] projection of 61.8%;
A daily 161.8% projection of Wave A lower (from 114.85 to 106.99) from the 112.46 peak;
A weekly 76.4% projection of the 147.63 -> 101.22 decline from the 135.14 peak
2nd February 2005
Yesterday saw a retest and failure (thus far) at the potential descending triangle high. Indeed, the price behavior seen does appear to look like a complex corrective pattern and this could mean that we shall see loss of 103.45-50 to trigger losses in Wave D down to 101.67-82 once again. This should cause a final rally in Wave E towards the 103.50 area before losses continue in Wave [v] where we still have a target at 99.65-75.
(c) FX-Strategy Inc 2005
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